🧵 Trump & Congressional Republicans are planning billions of dollars of cuts to SNAP food stamps. Political & economic problems may arise in congressional districts that rely the most on food aid, so let’s examine who they are (tag your local journalists): Highlights:
- 34 Republicans districts where at least 15% of the households receive SNAP

- They represent 1,855,322 total households w SNAP benefits

- 10 are in Trump-won states, 6 in Harris won states

- States: CA, FL, GA, IL, KY, LA, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, TX, VA, WA & WV

🧵 Trump is firing major parts of the workforce, there are bound to be electoral ramifications across the country. Political & economic problems may arise in congressional districts that rely the most on federal jobs, so let’s examine who they are (tag your local journalists): Here are the highlights:

- 57 CDs whose workforce is over 4% federal employees (another 36 has between 3-3.99%)
- Partisan breakdown: 30R - 27 Dem
- 18 are in Trump-won states. 8 are in Harris-won states

I think we - including me - are going to be tearing down Democratic policy, trends, comms, etc. for months to figure out what happened but after sleeping on it here are ten thoughts (that might not be true):

1) Democratic failures in urban governance coming to roost 2) Democratic rejection of media spaces to occupy/have a presence in (Fox for decades now & podcasting spaces popular with “normie” men)
3) Staffer class (and NGO/activist class) being dominated by elite liberal college ed+ pushing the party

Mark my words: sometime in the next decade, Democrats are going to kick the tires on lifting the ban on direct-from-manufacturers sale of automobiles. It is going to create one of the bloodiest political fights in a long time But if they think they can get past the cycle of hell downballot that it’ll create, they’re going to be extremely tempted to do it. Not just for market efficiency reasons or for theoretically bringing down car prices, but to kneecap a major GOP funding source (auto dealers)

🧵 Are you a Democrat who just wants to be positive no matter who Kamala picks as her running mate? Do I have a guide for you to share positive things to your family, friends, enemies and coworkers! 1) Josh Shapiro - Governor of important swing state, strong electoral track record, famously cut government red tape, sounds like Obama, works well in the Great Lakes, family man, moderate vibes

If Russia actually mobilized 25M men that would represent:

- 17% of its total population
- Roughly 50% of its male population between ages 15-64
- 40% of its entire working age population

It’d entirely tank Russia’s economy and cause a massive recession

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1655120273287290886

Russia is at this point openly considering wrecking its country (even more) while pursuing a failed invasion of a country 1/28th its size and with 1/3rd its population

I think what’s being said here - that there is a lane for explicit discussion on personal faith in the Democratic Party - is true and oft ignored. I don’t necessarily think it’ll lead to some breakthrough w/ evangelicals but it is a way of approaching them esp. on policy

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1653445805401833479

And beyond just the purely strategic, being a party of free speech is directly tied into allowing ourselves to voice our religious convictions and harkens back to the earliest days of our Republic. This somewhat dovetails with another issue I’ve harped on post-2016:

Ukraine trying to join the CPTPP and we aren’t even considering trying to get back in

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1653181860023869441

Fwiw - I understand the political realities of why we aren’t. And that’s partly incumbent on previous administrations (both Dem and Rep) for not fully engaging on the benefits of trade nor assisting communities legitimately hurt by swings in fortune due to trade

The continuing dumbest thing on this website is people acting like the BRICS are some sort of proto-alliance system rather than a group of emerging (or in Russia’s case vanishing) economies with unaligned domestic/FP goals

https://twitter.com/spiritofho/status/1653022155372744704

The easiest example of this is India and China. Every year these two have medieval style battles on their line of contact with wide Chinese claims on Indian territory (including China occupying parts of Bhutan to get a strategic foothold over them)

Stories like this are - one - reason I think we need to seriously explore the idea of granting green cards to foreign-born grads of US colleges and universities. Not only does it help retain talent but helps fill a large gap in our family immigration schemes

https://twitter.com/muhil_ravi/status/1652096746351218688

People who spend most of their remembered lives in the US then “aging out” of their parent’s status is a real problem

Whatever you may think of the bill itself, it really cannot be denied that signing this bill will cripple his presidential aspirations. A six-week abortion ban is underwater across most of the country and this in effect takes MI and potentially PA off the map for a DeSantis nom

https://twitter.com/govrondesantis/status/1646711005408272384

It’s really an all-in bet on WI, AZ, and GA. DeSantis has done a horrible job - imo - of being able to distinguish himself on any singular issue for a GE audience. A nat con/soc con profile may be okay for a Republican primary but for a GE it just makes you a Ted Cruz

Video has now appear of Russian soldiers beheading a Ukrainian Prisoner of War in Bakhmut. This comes amidst widespread reports of summary executions of many AFU POWs in the area at the hands of Wagner troops in the area. Designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1645884434376261637

This follows videos out of Soledar late in February of the execution of at least a dozen AFU POWs, last year’s castration and murder of another AFU soldier, and several other reported instances of beheadings

Insofar as congressional horse-trading goes this has the nucleus of a good deal for all. The GOP has wanted energy permitting reform since the mid-00s but never gotten around to it, Democrats want renewable energy/transmission permitting reform, and Dems want debt ceiling raised

https://twitter.com/elwasson/status/1640814817509343232

Since Democrats decided to torpedo Manchin’s preferred permitting path and will now have to begin from the GOP’s starting position it means the bill will be less favorable terms for them but nevertheless still can be fruitful. If this deal can be had, take it imo

It’s funny but it’s also just wild in modern times to see an old-school politician lean back into an era of white ethnic politics that has more or less disappeared since the 1970s

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1636813878624485377

Not that I don’t think Dems shouldn’t be showing up to your Czech Fests, St. Patrick’s Day parades, your Greek Orthodox Easter celebrations, etc. I think there are non-insignificant margins of voters missed by not engaging with those demographics individually

If/when Democrats win statewide in Texas I really do think it’ll cause a psychological breaking point in the GOP for a few cycles. Texas isn’t just the party’s financial and electoral college bulwark for the party but its iconographic and cultural heart There’s going to be a lot of raw anger by the base and consultant classes. In a way it’s like national GOP operatives still not getting over the fact that NOVA has slipped away from them but this potential loss of Texas is magnified so far beyond that for a litany of reasons

Moldova’s Prime Minister Dorin Recean confirmed that Moldovan security forces have discovered a plot by Russia to seize the international airport in the capital city of Chișinău that the RuAF would then use to ferry Russian soldiers into the country moldova1.md/p/4881/dorin-r… This comes after Ukrainian security services had confirmed on their own a Russian plot against Moldova through the use of Russian-controlled paramilitaries and Moldovan internal security attempted to have the Tiraspol - Partizan soccer match held w/o fans to forestall unrest

🧵 America needs bipartisan immigration reform: it’s how we can help massage support on both sides of the aisle and drive up support more broadly. Here’s my rough outline for what a maximalist deal between the parties could look like: - $$ for border security (agents, beefing up ports of entry, some physical barriers, lots electronic surveillance)
- $$ for immigration courts, reduced wait times for deportation post-hearing. Immigrants get public defenders (studies show it increases people showing up for court)

Whatever this video that’s about to drop out of Memphis is going to depict must be truly horrific. I’ve never seen such a coordinated and intentional police, political, and community response explicitly designed to forestall violent protests There’s really no other reason they’ve been a) intentionally slow-walking the release, b) acted swiftly with charges, c) brought officials from the police chief to community leaders to the governor to the president making statements asking for calm, and

Immigration is one of those funny areas of policy where, statistically, there’s not really a good statistical argument against the pro-immigration side:

- Put more money into government coffers than they use
- Higher entrepreneurship rate than native born - On net create more jobs than they “take”
- Increase consumer demand
- Higher military service rate than native born
- Give US non-European level growth rates (normalizes at 3rd Gen)
- Recent immigrant groups are well-educated with over 40% being degree holders

Belarus could get interesting very quickly over the next few months. Not only has Russia been emptying Belarus’s ammunition and armor stockpiles (including at least 25% of its T-72 stores) but they’re now signing unreleased defense treaty provisos with Russia

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1599169936961568768

In the background of this was the death of the most prominent pro-neutrality voice in Lukashenko’s government - FM Makei -, the continual drilling of the Belarusian military for the past year, and as stated in the thread as well preparations for a mass mobilization

I hope that all of Kari Lake’s supporters JOIN other PATRIOTS in starting their own PATRIOT NO-RINOS ALLOWED party with TRUMP! If no TRUMP, don’t VOTE IN 2024

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1599086646682869760

And of course KARI needs to RUN AGAIN in 2026 against HOBBS if the courts DON’T DO THEIR JOBS, just like how the COCHISE COWARDS didn’t