All my life I have studied democratization and autocratization. My 1st field trip was to newly democratic Argentina. I then added autocracies to my portfolio: Cuba, Ven, etc. I think I can recognize the stages of transition to authoritarianism. Here are the boxes checked off.
2. Ruling party acts like a rubber stamp. They like his policies and/or fear his retribution. Either way, they never say never. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
6. Trash-talk institutions that the govt dislikes. Treat them as guilty actors and harming agents, without conducting reviews or involving court procedures. Justify their purges as efforts to save taxpayers' money whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…
7. Mobilize hate across society. Encourage people to develop intense hate of some out-group (illegal immigrants, trans folks, ethnic minorities, Hollywood celebrities, elite colleges, dissenters). cbsnews.com/video/trump-bl…
8. Replace the rule of law with autocratic legalism, which means: for my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law. Autocratic legalism requires you to end the independence of the justice department reuters.com/world/us/trump…
9. Harass the free press. Create a hierarchy: good press (treat me kindly), full access; bad press, no access. Entangle news organization in legal battles politico.com/news/2025/02/1…
Some people keep saying, let's solve the Venezuelan crisis with domestic institutions. We have to be honest. Maduro's institutions have yielded the worst human security crises in Latin America since 2013, and among the top in the world in the 21st c. Here's the list
1) Electoral crises (2018-2024) 2) Repression crises (2014, 2017, 2020-22, 2024) 3) Economic collapse (close to 75% decline since 2013) 4) Drug-crime boom (this started under Chávez)
5) Human/Metal smuggling (Mining Arch), with unprecedented violations of ILO labor standards 6) Migration crisis (since 2016), probably the second worst after the Syrian case. 7) Environmental crises (oil spills, mercury spills, deforestation)
The International Relations of Venezuela's impasse. The Maduro govt is kept in power, in part, because of its coup-proofing, but also because of its international allies. Who are these allies and what are they defending in Venezuela? Thread
1) Transnational organized crime: defending the only territory in Latin America where the DEA does not operate.
2) Cuba: defending its main source of energy. Since the end of the USSR, Cuba relies on Venezuela for most of its energy.
Ahora en español: ¿Por qué debe el mundo prestarle atención a Venezuela? Lo que demostró la oposición es histórico, con consecuencias para el futuro de la libertad en el mundo. Lo explico. 🧵
1/ Las elecciones en Vzla se realizaron bajo las reglas y normas más obstruccionistas imaginables. Todo fue diseñado para suprimir el voto. Todas las tácticas empleadas por autócratas para aplastar a la oposición se utilizaron, y fueron inclusive más lejos.
2/ Dichas reglas y normas consistieron en:
- inhabilitar a candidatos, sobre todo, a la más competitiva
- intervenir en los partidos y substituir sus directivas (un tipo de expropiación de partidos)
- hostigamiento de la prensa
- restringirle a la oposición acceso a los medios
Why should the world focus on Venezuela? What the opposition has demonstrated is historic, with implications for the future of liberty in the world. Let me explain. Thread
1/ The Venezuelan elections were conducted with the most obstructionist rules and norms imaginable. Everything was designed to supress the vote. All the tactics used by autocrats to crush the opposition in elections were used, and then some.
2/ These rules and norms included:
- explicit bans on candidates, especially the front-runner
- interventions of parties to get rid of their leaders (a type of nationalization of parties),
- harassements on reporters;
- restrictions on airtime for the opposition
A primer on how repression in Venezuela works, as I understand it. It's important to know this sytem to understand why the regime feels it can suppress the possible uprising. See thread.
Vzla has one of the most repressive apparatuses imaginable.
Unlike what Max Weber suggested, the Venezuelan state does not have a monopoly of violence under one unit, but rather, it supports a collection of violent actors, some official, many non-official, each with a significant degree of autonomy to act
Here's the list of international observers in Venezuela which did not go because they were disinvited by the Venezuelan government:
1 the EU
2 Delegations from allied nations: Bra and Col
3 Representatives from Arg's expresident A Fernández (also a Maduro ally).
4 All invitees from the opposition
Maduro did allow limited visits from: 1) The UN: A team of four (limited to providing the Secretary-General with a confidential report) 2) from the Carter Center: a team of only a few experts, so small that it won't be able to "assess the voting, counting, and tabulation."