Thread by @EvanWritesOnX

Here’s a thread on how I look at geopolitics.

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State actors rarely act ideologically.

Everyone was blinded by Zionist ideology, obscuring their ability to look at the landscape objectively.

States always act to maximise security, power, influence, or a combination of all.

Ideological states do not survive.

Think of USSR.

Power is always priority.

Everything takes a backseat when it comes to survival.

Military strength, economic influence, political stability are the key determinants of power.

If a state doesn’t have any of the above, they have no leverage in diplomatic relations.

They become satellite states to be governed by other states. Think Egypt, Jordan.

Diplomacy is about managing expectations and optics.

It’s about talking while saying nothing.

It rarely reflects what happens in the real world.

But it’s a necessary tool to achieve state objectives.

There are no permanent alliances. Just permanent interests.

This concept escaped a lot of people.

They couldn’t comprehend the fact that Iran would end the Axis they created. People were outraged by my statement. They claimed I have no understanding of the deep core values between Khameini and Hezbollah.

It’s not about some long standing covenant. It’s not about Honor. It’s not about Respect.

It’s about national interest. Iran pivoted because it saw an opportunity to normalise with BRICS and the GCC. And the condition for that was to sever its ties with its proxies.

The truth is, that it’s a very common practice for States to engage in leadership decapitation of their own proxies when interests diverge.

That’s what happened late October last year with Hezbollah.

State-Proxy relationships are hard to grasp as it goes against people’s values when they separate.

Every state prefers to balance out powers.

If a state becomes too powerful, other states will coordinate to neutralise it.

This is just standard game theory.

While everyone assumed the Gulf nations were Zionist puppets,

I was looking at how they were coordinating to stop Israel from establishing Greater Israel.

No regional state wants Israel to become a regional hegemony.

And when Israel falls, each regional state will eye the NEXT powerful state to ensure a balance of power will be maintained.

Meaning, Turkey and the GCC will likely be eyeing each other.

Geography sets the way for states to create a strategy for their power maximisation objectives.

This is why I say Gaza is the Stalingrad of Palestine. It’s the piece that will undo Israel if they fail to take it.

Israel understands this.

The Golan heights, West Bank are irrelevant. It was a tactical mistake for Israel to pursue expansion in other regions without first totally displacing Palestinians in Gaza.

Homs was the strategic territory that lead to Russia’s Naval/Aerial bases in Syria.

When Russia made no effort to defend Homs, it became clear to me that Russia has made a deal with the Gulf to remove Assad, and that the US was not involved in this operation.

Russia just spent 3 years containing the US via Ukraine. It wasn’t going to allow the US to set up camp in Syria.

That’s how I was able to asses how Syria unfolded correctly.

The ends justify the means.

There is ZERO ethical, moral considerations when assessing geopolitics.

Statesmen act pragmatically. And when they do, people always get hurt.

This is inevitable.

While everyone called Netanyahu crazy, I saw that he was playing game theory almost PERFECTLY.

Geopolitics, realpolitik, is amoral.

It’s neither moral nor immoral. It simply focuses on dominant strategy to maximise outcomes.

Pure Game theory.

Conflict is inevitable.

There is no government above countries to govern rules of engagement.

So, you can never be certain about a states intention. They can always behave clandestine.

Survival is the goal of all states.

And all states act rationally.

Therefore all states will constantly be in conflict with one another.

If you remove Israel and Turkey off the board, the GCC will instigate conflict among themselves. Whether through hard power or soft power,

that’s just reality whether you agree with it or not.

Law only serves power.

International laws, Geneva conventions only exist to protect those who are violating the very same laws.

There’s no such thing as International Law.

If one tries to establish it, it will be exploited.

The board is free for all.

Perception is reality.

Everyone thought Zionists controlled the US.

Because that was the narrative that created that perception. This narrative was fuelled by ideology.

Zionism, evangelicals, messianic leaders.

At state level, none of these ideological players make the decisions.

It’s your job to look beyond those layers.

Crisis always equals opportunity.

States immediately exploit wars, economic collapse and political instability,

to maximise their influence.

Abstaining from wars, ensuring stable economy and fortifying political stability is the trinity of excellent statesmanship.

It enables the country to pounce on opportunities when regional conflicts present themselves.

Statesmen are extremely resourceful.

Instead of moving against a force, they will leverage it to achieve their own outcomes.

This is why I kept saying, Hamas is a gift and a curse. Yes it was the resistance for the Palestinians.

But it was also leveraged as justification by Israel to continue their ethnic cleansing.

The two can coexist.

The strong do what they can. The weak suffer what they must.

If you’re a weak state, you will be at the mercy of stronger states. Even your allies will turn on you.

The leader will get called a coward, a traitor, a puppet.

But the reality is anyone in his position would face the same limited options.