On a cold December evening in 2021, during an OSCE meeting in Stockholm, Lavrov outlined what he called “a new security architecture” for Europe. And Trump, knowingly or otherwise, might now be implementing those plans.🧵1/5
Apart from the usual nonsense about biolabs and nukes, Lavrov demanded that for stability in Europe, NATO must go back to its 1997 borders, retreating from everything except East Germany. So why wouldn’t Putin ask for this in Riyadh? It seems much more than likely.🧵2/5
Putin is not on the ropes, he is on a roll, his dreams are being realised by his former enemies. NATO stayed out of Ukraine, believed the nuclear threats and allowed the shadow war to escalate. Trump can now add Ukrainian neutrality, elections and territories to the list.🧵3/5
Trump cannot go ahead and unilaterally promise Putin a reversal of NATO enlargement, because that would require agreement from all members. But Trump can simply withdraw US troops from the Eastern Flank, which would have almost the same effect.🧵4/5
With the US troops gone, Putin might start to see the opportunity to annex whatever he wants. Biden’s appeasement policy might have been called a display of weakness, but an even weaker policy would be to give Putin a bigger chunk of Europe than Ribbentrop gave Molotov.🧵5/5
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