Thread by @KobeissiLetter

You can't make this up:

Social Security may go insolvent by 2034 and Elon Musk just called it "the biggest fraud in history."

According to new DOGE data, ~21 million people aged 100+ in the SSA database are listed as ALIVE in the US.

What is happening here?

(a thread)

First, let's just put this in perspective.

Here's a population distribution map of people living in the US, by age.

According to the US Census, in 2020, just 80,000 Americans were aged 85+.

This is just 0.02% of the US population, compared to the ~5% reflected in SS data.

Social Security data shows 1,041 people over the age of 220 living in the US with one aged 360+.

As of January 2025, the oldest person in the world is aged 116 living in Brazil.

While this data is clearly WRONG, it only emphasizes the inefficiencies in the SSA organization.

This issue was addressed in an SSA audit in 2023.

The outcome of the audit was that it is "likely" the SSA has not recorded death information for 18.9 MILLION individuals.

Having 18.9 million individuals unaccounted for is unprecedented for any organization, let alone SSA.

Elon Musk and DOGE allege a lot of this is fraud.

In a recent post, Elon said he's "100% certain" that SSA fraud "exceeds the combined sum of every private scam you’ve ever heard by FAR."

We dug deeper into the data and found BILLIONS of unaccounted Social Security funds.

Here's an example:

The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs made $8.3 BILLION in improper payments in 2022 ALONE.

This is 3 TIMES the 2021 total and doesn't include the $4.6 billion of improper SSI payments.

This is TENS of billions per year.

This is the same fund that is projected to become insolvent in FY 2032.

Social Security's cash shortfall in 2032 is set to be $515 BILLION, also as the Old-Age fund is expected to become insolvent.

The cash shortfall would be ~1.3% of US GDP and estimates are rising.

In fact, Social Security Spending is expect to hit ~21% of taxable payroll.

Meanwhile, Social Security Revenue is expected to be just ~14% of taxable payroll.

This is a gap of 7% of ALL taxable payroll between revenue and spending.

Needless to say, this is unsustainable.

This problem is not only isolated to Social Secuirty.

An estimated ~$100 billion in improper payments were made in the Medicare/Medicaid programs in FY2023.

Between Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid, we could be seeing nearly $150 BILLION per year of improper payments.

This $150 billion could reduce US deficit spending by ~8.3% based on FY2024's data.

In the first 4 months of FY2025, the US deficit just hit a MASSIVE $831 billion.

Deficit spending is our biggest crisis.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.