Putin wants NATO troops removed from Eastern Europe: the Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic etc
Trump is likely to agree to withdrawal from the Baltics, wires FT 1/
Trump is likely to agree to withdrawal from the Baltics, wires FT 1/
Still seems implausible to me, but Politico takes it seriously and even runs the numbers.
The U.S. has 80,000 troops in Europe - 25% more than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 2/
The U.S. has 80,000 troops in Europe - 25% more than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine 2/
In my view, 80,000 troops is negligible—roughly the size of two Ukrainian army corps or 10-15 brigades. Russia has 200 brigades, Ukraine over 100.
The Russians are combat ready. Are NATO? They are trained, people say, but for a different type of war 3/
The Russians are combat ready. Are NATO? They are trained, people say, but for a different type of war 3/
In Ukraine, brigades that are trained, but haven’t been in actual combat sometimes are almost decimated in the first several fights. It is key to have officers and sergeants who have experienced the Russian style warfare for a brigade to survive and be effective 4/
Moreover, if Ukraine falls, Russia could quickly expand to 300 brigades by mobilizing the occupied territories. How would 80,000 U.S. troops change that equation? 5/
Politico writes that while NATO plans to reduce U.S. military assets, Europe expected to field 20,000-45,000 troops, just half of the U.S. presence 6/
NATO planning 100,000-troop rapid response force within 10 days, 500,000 within 6 months, but this won’t be enough, in my view 7/
You might object and say that Russia will never dare to attack NATO. Nuclear deterrence and what not. Well trained troops that will destroy Russia within days
Do you actually believe this? 8/
Do you actually believe this? 8/
This logic is based on the hope that Russia will not attack the Baltics. Not a strategy or evidence, but hope!
Will NATO start a nuclear war if Russia moves 20 brigades in Latvia? No! NATO will negotiate! 9/
Will NATO start a nuclear war if Russia moves 20 brigades in Latvia? No! NATO will negotiate! 9/
Will NATO rapid response force be able to get Russian bridges out of the Baltics if they move in there in a day? I don’t think so. 10/
As one defense and military Israeli expert told me yesterday - Europe is so fu…ked. They have no idea how unready they are. I agree with him.
I hope we are both wrong X
I hope we are both wrong X
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