Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Feb 19 24 tweets 15 min read Read on X
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll take out my crystal ball and predict what the alliance between the US and Russia could mean for Ukraine, Europe and geopolitics in general. These recent changes could be a real risk for the whole of Europe, and need to be addressed quickly.

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Some of us have been reporting on Trump’s pro-Kremlin tendencies for years now. His Moscow connections go back all the way to the late 80s, and the 2016 US presidential elections raised a lot of red flags about the close connections of his associates to Russian operatives.

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The recent Rubio-Lavrov meeting in Saudi Arabia was an eye-opening event for many who were still optimistic about Trump and Ukraine – the outcome was that Putin got absolutely everything he’s ever wanted from the war, and at the same time it seems that the US got nothing.

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From the beginning of the war back in 2014, Moscow’s goals in Ukraine have been the same: install a pro-Kremlin puppet regime in Kyiv after the ousting of Yanukovych, capture vast areas of land from Ukraine, alienate Ukraine’s allies and undermine NATO.

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In Feb 2022, their initial plan to capture Kyiv in 3 days & install a puppet regime failed, and the war quickly expanded. Eventually, Putin abandoned the idea of forming puppet states of LPR & DPR, and announced the annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk & Zaporizhzhia.

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Ukrainians fought fiercely, and even managed to take away a big part of Russia’s Black Sea navy. Russia resorted to meatwave attacks, bombing civilians & critical infrastructure, and controlling the online information space through massive disinformation campaigns.

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Then, after almost 3 years of brutal war, everything changed, as they had hoped: Trump won, and this time it was quickly obvious whose side he was standing on. We had already seen Trump capitulating to Putin in Helsinki in 2018, but this was something completely different.

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First of all, Trump excluded the Europeans and even Ukrainians from the peace talks. Soon after the meeting, both sides agreed to “lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities.”

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After the meeting, Rubio stated that they’d restore staffing to embassies, create a “high-level team” to support Ukraine-Russia peace talks, and to “explore closer relations and economic cooperation”.

Lavrov said that “Russia will not accept NATO troops in Ukraine.”

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The US side also proposed a three-stage peace plan:

1) Ceasefire deal
2) Elections in Ukraine
3) Peace deal

Lavrov later claimed that he was “unaware” of such a plan, commenting that “I haven’t seen this information, I haven’t seen this news.”

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Here’s how I see things going in the near future: first, Trump and Putin will come up with an extremely biased and unfair ceasefire plan for Ukraine. It will most probably include Russia keeping all the invaded regions, and Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO.

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This will of course be rejected by both Ukraine and the EU, after which the two sides will eventually find some kind of middle ground and come up with a flimsy Minsk 3 type of deal. During all this time, both the US and Russia will defame Zelenskyy, blaming him for the war.
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The goal there is to decrease Zelenskyy’s popularity, and try to promote a pro-Kremlin and pro-Trump leader in the country. This process was already started by Trump, who said that Zelenskyy’s approval rate is “down at 4%,” and that he shouldn’t have “started the war”.

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The Kremlin candidate to lead Ukraine will probably be someone close to Viktor Medvedchuk. This candidate will be heavily promoted by Russian operations and pro-Kremlin Ukrainians like Diana Panchenko (who will also keep on criticizing Zelenskyy).

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Before the eventual ceasefire and elections, Trump will continue criticizing NATO and Europe, blaming them for continuing the war in Ukraine. Some have even suggested that Trump might pull US troops from Europe, leaving it extremely vulnerable to a future Russian invasion.

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The Trump admin will also continue spreading lies about the aid sent to Ukraine by his predecessor, claiming that the US has “given over double what Europe has” (it hasn’t) and that a large part of the aid has gone missing (it was actually spent elsewhere).

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If the US and Russia manage to get their puppet regime in power, this will launch a massive operation of dividing Ukraine’s resources between the two. Chinese companies are already operating in the Donbas region, and the US probably wants Russia to kick them out.

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Part of the deal would also be lifting sanctions against Russia. This would effectively help the Kremlin to bounce back economically and even supercharge their war economy so that they can continue producing weapons and equipment for future wars.

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Meanwhile, Trump’s threats against Greenland and Canada will continue. Greenland is full of valuable resources, and Canada has some of the largest known reserves of rare earth minerals in the world. Many of these resources are necessary for building modern technology.

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Even if there is a ceasefire, Putin will probably continue the invasion against Ukraine. Intelligence sources from the US and close allies show that Putin is “not interested in a real peace deal”, and wants to eventually control all of Ukraine.

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This is also evident from Lavrov’s statements – the Russian Foreign Minister has stated that Ukraine is not a real country and should be divided among Russia, Romania, Poland and Hungary. In Romania, this claim could be even used to get Calin Georgescu elected.

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Trump has been right about many things in the past, including the need for Europe to get rid of Russian energy & ramp up their defense budgets. But right now, it seems that Europe has become a target for both America & Russia, and the European leaders are in panic mode.

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To conclude, Trump has offered Putin

1) Ukrainian territory,
2) no NATO membership for Ukraine,
3) no US soldiers in Ukraine,
4) withdrawal of US soldiers from Europe, and
5) sanctions relief

Whereas Trump gets back nothing. Art of the Deal.

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The 2nd edition of “Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation” is officially out!

You can order your copy here:

kleart.eu/webshop/p/vatn…

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Feb 18
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce how the Elon’s Election Interference Machine™ (EIM) works. Since Musk & his broligarch allies won the presidency for Trump, they’ve now harnessed the machine to interfere in European elections, including the ones in Germany & Romania.

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At this point it is clear why Elon bought Twitter – his grand plan was to promote “free speech absolutism” (which, of course, doesn’t even exist on the platform) and tweak the algorithms so that they allow him to promote political parties that align with his worldview.

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First, let’s talk about “freedom of speech” that the Trump administration, especially Musk and VP Vance constantly rant about. Incidentally, they only blame the EU for “limiting free speech”, and there’s a good reason for this: they are driving for political change.

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Read 24 tweets
Feb 14
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce the Russian disinformation network “Doppelgänger”. Doppelgänger is an influence and hybrid operation spreading Kremlin propaganda via AI-generated fake news websites and social media sites, especially X.

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Doppelgänger is a massive influence operation that was initially exposed back in 2022. Their modus operandi is to create near-identical copies of large, legitimate Western news outlets to spread anti-Ukraine, anti-Western and anti-NATO narratives.

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The operation, overseen by Putin’s top aide Sergei Kiriyenko (who’s reportedly communicated with Elon), uses Russian firms like Social Design Agency (SDA) to create fake news sites that mimick legitimate media like The Washington Post, The Guardian, Bild and Fox News.

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Read 21 tweets
Feb 13
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about Europe’s information defense against foreign influence operations & disinformation.

The EU can’t rely anymore on America’s help in geopolitical struggles, and it’s time we created a united front against information threats.

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Recent news coming from the US should be the final wake-up call for European decision-makers. Recently, Trump’s rhetoric has been openly pro-Kremlin and both anti-Ukraine & anti-EU, and at the same time the US is dismantling all institutions fighting against disinformation.

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So far, the Trump administration has put staffers working on disinformation as well as a team of election security advisers at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on administrative leave.

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Read 25 tweets
Feb 12
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia deals with the Russian threat. Estonia’s Internal Security Service (KAPO) published their 2023-2024 annual review some time ago, and it’s packed with insights on Russian hybrid operations in the region.

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Estonia is at the frontlines against Russia’s hybrid war, and they’ve been targeted by the Kremlin for decades. Russia’s main goal remains the same: undermine Estonia’s constitutional order. To do this, they use intimidation, propaganda & cyber warfare to stir unrest.

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Like in all Baltic countries, one of their major tools is the manipulation of ethnic Russians in Estonia. The Kremlin pushes propaganda to create divisions, but recent surveys show integration is improving. The Kremlin is losing its grip.

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Read 18 tweets
Feb 2
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I talk about populism. Populism includes a range of political stances with the focus on the idea of the “common people” in opposition to the “elites”. In recent decades, populism has been on the rise around the world,and especially in the US & Europe.
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At its core, populism pits “the people” against “the elites.” It’s a political approach that claims to represent the common folk, often oversimplifying complex issues and tapping into frustrations. Populism can be left-wing, right-wing, or somewhere in between.
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In the US and Canada during the 19th and early 20th century, populist sentiments often came from the small independent farmers, “the people”, who were opposing the bankers and politicians, or “the elites”. The People’s Party in the US was considered…

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Read 26 tweets
Jan 24
In today’s vatnik soup, I’ll discuss how Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania cut the cord on Russian energy, further reducing their reliance on the Kremlin.

At the same time, the Baltics set an example for EU countries like Slovakia & Hungary whose leadership still worships Putin.

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Moscow has long used its vast natural gas reserves as a geopolitical weapon, manipulating energy supplies to keep neighbors obedient. They’ve used the “energy weapon” several times, with the most blatant cases of Kremlin blackmail coming of course from Ukraine.

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Let’s rewind back to the 1990s: The USSR dissolved, but Russia inherited the gas reserves, pipelines, and Gazprom — its political weapon. Meanwhile, the Baltic states were politically free but economically tied to Russia, heavily reliant on Russian gas.

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Read 25 tweets

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