Range Trading & Value (Part 2) - 🧵
Auction Market Theory + Flow
Part 2 covers practical frameworks including examples & discussion for trading in a range.
Rotational regimes are great for trading if you are patient and know what you're looking for.
Here's how that can look:
In a range-bound environment the question I'm looking to answer when price navigates towards extremes of value established in a ranging environment:
is the advertised discount or premium still considered a discount or premium by participants once price moves towards & away from extremes of value?
can deploy a two-pronged approach to attempt to answer this question:
1. passive flow 2. aggressive flow
1. Passive Flow
What does passive flow mean?
Why consider looking at aggregate spot behavior?
A recent $BTC example
2. Aggressive Flow
A recent $BTC example
Potential Frameworks to consider
Cheat Sheets from @leviathancrypto
@Luckshuryy as a good resource for some of these frameworks as well as use of Exocharts.
3. Bonus - Market Profile
Use of MP anomalies & naked point of control.
will aggregate all MP information in a thread next (what it is, how it can be useful, explanations on anomalies, what they mean & how they can be used + naked point of controls)
Hope this was insightful. Tried to provide some nuanced frameworks that can be used to create your own ideas.
Takes a significant amount of time to put these visuals together so if you want more of these, engage with the first tweet in the thread.
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“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
The Boom-Bust Sequence & The Comparison of Narrative Momentum & Price (in particular, Narrative Cycle Tops).
a thread 🧵
While reading through George Soros's "Alchemy of Finance" and Brent Donnelly's "Alpha Trader" (in particular, the narrative section), I was struck by several AHA moments.
I would like to try to recreate the same for you. At a minimum, by the end of this thread you should have some understanding of the following terms:
It stems from social theory and George Soros brought it into the world of finance.
An analogy: Pavlov's Experiment & Conditioning To make a long story short, Pavlov set up an experiment where he rang a bell before giving food to his dogs.
Initially, the dogs didn't give much of a shit when the bell was rung. With time, the ringing of the bell elicited a response in the dogs and they would salivate at the ringing of the bell (in anticipation of the food).
We'll come back to how this concept fits into The Boom-Bust Sequence.
low volume weekend + rotational regime b/w ~100 & the 107s since the 20th of Jan.
passive spot sandwiching b/w these two general areas - heavier into the 100 and 110 extreme.
looking for FOMC on Wed. to provide some volatility and directional opportunities.
Really interested in any significant break below 100 and will be keeping an eye on buying aggression on any breaks above prev. week high (aligns with high side of value).
monthly vwap creeping up into the 99s (Monday Lows) while the upper side std. dev. band is now skirting inside this consolidation value.
potential dip scenario of interest would be a nice panic sweep into a reclaim.
if you want to see more of these updates or if they're helpful, pls engage.
bounce offered from consolidation VAH = picturesque - especially with some spot walls showing up to offer protection (see preveious tweet)
currently, sitting right under 110 with passive ask side skew on spot stacking around 110.
the most important thing from here is to watch spot following through on any dips (or lack of spot involvement for that matter).
current 1 min. aggregate BTC spot shown below
words used during the inauguration with respect to the urgency of setting up the SBR and/or any reference to crypto tax will be key to look out for tomorrow.
imo any sense of lack of urgency or "empty" promises prob. leads to quick repricing to the downside.