$BTC Detailed Overview

Daily

> monthly profile - Jan point of control - ~105 unable to reclaim + multiple rejections so far.

> imbalance (untested conviction) between ~97-100.

> to keep it simple, 105 has remained a key area to flip to rotate towards ATH. However, repeated sell pressure + spot asks stacking every time price approaches this area indicating this has remained a premium for participants thus far. i.e. significant aggression required for turnover.

> note previous balance established here with value between 101 and 93. if acceptance back inside this expecting some reflexivity to the downside (this posture is aided by the aggressive positioning on the way up which lends well to unraveling).

TPO

> 10 day composite bracketing value b/w ~104 and 102.6 with breakout vwap providing reactions thus far.

> price currently trading into low side of composite value and discretionary vwap once again.

> on ltf (1 min), looks like perps are attempting to get aggressive while there is continued spot selling pressure currently.

> look for this general area for continued weakness or ltf bounce (need spot follow through for another attempt at rotating higher).

$BTC Spot

> 2.5% spot depth tells the story of 105+ remaining expensive (ask side skew moving to 100+ Ms in stacking when price approaches this area).

> currently slightly skewed towards the bid side - ~70Ms.

TLDR:

> 105 - key pivot for continuation to ATH - continued sell pressure above thus far.

> low to mid 102s aligned with balance value + breakout vwap (trading here currently).

> imbalance under here = potential reflexivity to the down-side with aggressive positioning established on the way up.

> 100 is a major milestone for $BTC so spending a lot of time under this area = sign to remain cautious and be flexible with posture.

tldr - im tired boss. price rugging with haste as I'm typing out the update and having to modify lol

anyway hope this helps.

“… time regulates price opportunity…” – Dalton

Everything TPO (time price opportunity)-
a detailed thread

> what are the tetris looking charts?
> why use time-based distributions?
> anomalies - what they mean and potential use
> composites
etc. > how does time fit into applied auction market theory?
> what is tpo? (click on thread)
> what are potential benefits of incorporating tpo?

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1875452048491032974

$BTC Detailed Outlook

> time-based composite (Feb 2nd - current) value bracketed b/w 98.35 & 95.45.

> rotational regime continues w/ participants confirming price to be at a discount below & premium above value. Looking at the last 6 sessions offered a rotation from the low to high, high to low of the established value.

recent poor low cleaned up with an ltf bounce (current).

to the upside, note naked vpoc left behind on the Friday sell-off (+ledge = resistance) at ~98.1.

Range Trading & Value (Part 2) - 🧵
Auction Market Theory + Flow

Part 2 covers practical frameworks including examples & discussion for trading in a range.

Rotational regimes are great for trading if you are patient and know what you're looking for.

Here's how that can look: In a range-bound environment the question I'm looking to answer when price navigates towards extremes of value established in a ranging environment:

is the advertised discount or premium still considered a discount or premium by participants once price moves towards & away from extremes of value?

can deploy a two-pronged approach to attempt to answer this question:

1. passive flow
2. aggressive flow

$BTC Detailed Outlook

Let's start with a look at the htf volume composite.

rotation to low side of value ✅
presenting a quick reaction on ltf.

https://twitter.com/Stoiiic/status/1887741850414391306

1 min. Coinalyze

assumption - price down, OI up, CVD perps down.

aggressive shorting on the last leg down starting from est. ~ 95s.

could be a case of squeeze bottom shorts & revisit lows to test conviction unless acceptance back into ltf value for rotation higher(see next).

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

The Boom-Bust Sequence & The Comparison of Narrative Momentum & Price (in particular, Narrative Cycle Tops).

a thread 🧵 While reading through George Soros's "Alchemy of Finance" and Brent Donnelly's "Alpha Trader" (in particular, the narrative section), I was struck by several AHA moments.

I would like to try to recreate the same for you. At a minimum, by the end of this thread you should have some understanding of the following terms:

Reflexivity Boom-Bust Sequences Narrative Cycles Lag associated w/ Narrative & Price

Let's walk through it together.

$BTC

low volume weekend + rotational regime b/w ~100 & the 107s since the 20th of Jan.

passive spot sandwiching b/w these two general areas - heavier into the 100 and 110 extreme.

looking for FOMC on Wed. to provide some volatility and directional opportunities.

Really interested in any significant break below 100 and will be keeping an eye on buying aggression on any breaks above prev. week high (aligns with high side of value). monthly vwap creeping up into the 99s (Monday Lows) while the upper side std. dev. band is now skirting inside this consolidation value.

potential dip scenario of interest would be a nice panic sweep into a reclaim.

$BTC

bounce offered from consolidation VAH = picturesque - especially with some spot walls showing up to offer protection (see preveious tweet)

currently, sitting right under 110 with passive ask side skew on spot stacking around 110.

the most important thing from here is to watch spot following through on any dips (or lack of spot involvement for that matter).

current 1 min. aggregate BTC spot shown below words used during the inauguration with respect to the urgency of setting up the SBR and/or any reference to crypto tax will be key to look out for tomorrow.

imo any sense of lack of urgency or "empty" promises prob. leads to quick repricing to the downside.

Price is simply an advertising mechanism

with time regulating all advertised opportunities

and volume ultimately measuring the success or failure of all advertised opportunities.

- J. Dalton

everything auction market theory in one thread (primer) auction market theory

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1838473856593301845

the importance of volume from the perspective of trading

+

aggregation of volume related information in the form of visual explanations (lvn, hvn, poc, vwaps)

all in one - volume specific thread. (primer) low volume nodes

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1837386959016112281

2025 Market Outlook Key Points & Notes
Crypto Edition

saving you a few hundred pages of reading.

take all of this with a grain of salt (maybe a spoon full of salt at times)

notes taken from:
Coinbase & Messari

(might add a few more this week - idk why i signed up for this) Coinbase

Executive Summary
- Transformative growth & maturation

milestones in 2024 including approval of spot ETFs in the US, growth of stablecoins integrated into global payment systems, tokenization of financial products.

- Resilience

2024 showed crypto overcoming obstacles such as rate hike speculation, regulatory crackdowns & market uncertainty.

- Changing Market Dynamics

Bitcoin dominance surging and aided by major financial institutions and central banks discussing the potential of crypto.

- Promising Developments

Decentralized prediction markets, AI agents equipped with crypto wallets, decentralized peer-to-peer exchanges

On the institutional front, CB sees significant potential in stablecoins and payments, undercollaterized onchain lending (onchain credit scores) and compliant onchain capital formation.

- Despite crypto awareness, the technology remains obscure due to the technical structure. “However, technological innovations are also poised to change this.”

- Expectation of 2025 being a pivotal year in terms of breakthroughs and advancements.

Themes mentioned:

- Macro

Expectation of Fed continuing to ease in 2025, with pace being dependent on how “expansionary the next set of fiscal policies will be.”

“Fed’s rate cuts are simply a formality at this point, as credit conditions are already easing, which is a supportive backdrop for crypto performance over the next 1-2 quarters. Meanwhile, the next administration’s projected deficit spending (if it materializes) should translate into greater risk taking (crypto buying) as more dollars circulate in the economy.”

Pro-crypto US Congress i.e. tailwind vs headwind + challenges on creating a strategic $BTC reserve in terms of “legal constraints on what the Fed can hold in its balance sheet”

Crypto ETFs – discussion on potential approvals for other tokens (XRP, SOL etc.) and the implications in terms of “what could happen if the SEC allowed staking in ETFs or lifted its mandate on cash rather than in-kind creations and redemptions of ETF shares.”

Stablecoins – expectation of the “next wave of real adoption in crypto” coming from stablecoins and payments. “The stablecoin market has settled nearly $27.1T in transactions through November 30, 2024, almost tripling the $9.3T observed over the same 11-month period in 2023.”

Tokenization Revolution – significant progress made in 2024 as “RWAs have grown over 60% from $8.4B at the end of 23’ to $13.5B as of Dec 1 2024 (excluding stablecoins).” Expectation of tokenization to be a “gradual and continuous process” due to challenges such as “liquidity fragmentation” & “regulatory hurdles”.

DeFi Resurgence- discussion on the shift in regulatory landscape that can “reinvigorate DeFi’s prospects”.

Reference to Federal Reserve Governor Christoper Wallet prepared remarks in Oct 24’ discussing “how DeFi can largely complement centralized finance (CeFi), arguing that distributed ledger technology (DLT) can make CeFi's record-keeping faster and more efficient, while smart contracts can boost CeFi’s capabilities.” Further concluding that “DeFi could soon extend it’s reach beyond its primarily crypto-oriented user base and start engaging more with traditional finance (TradeFi).”

- Disrupting Paradigms

Telegram Trading Bots – have been on of the most profitable apps in 2024.

Prediction Markets – Polymarket

Games- discussion on improvement when it comes to crypto-integrated games. “… it’s less clear to us how this would directly translate to demand for liquid tokens. In-game currencies are likely to remain segregated across games, and we think gamers who are not crypto enthusiasts are unlikely to appreciate external investors impacting the in-game economy.”

DePIN – “In our view, this space is likely to have a wide dispersion between network adoption, token utility, and revenues generated – all of which are likely linked to the underlying industry they target more than the underlying technology network they utilize.”

Artificial Intelligence – “the full impact of AI on crypto is not yet clear as evidenced by the quick cycling of narratives. We don’t think this uncertainty diminishes the potential transformations that AI could bring to crypto, however, as AI technologies are constantly seeing new breakthroughs. AI applications are also becoming increasingly accessible to non-technical users, which we think will further accelerate creative use cases.”

- Other key themes include the discussion on “the blockchain metagame” & “User Experience” (UX improvements & decentralized identity)

2025 Market Outlook Key Points & Notes
(tradfi edition- institutions & banks)

saving you a few hundred pages of reading.

notes taken from:

J.P. Morgan, Blackrock, Deutsche Wealth, World Bank Group, Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley 1. J.P. Morgan

key takeaways

- global economy expected to experience growth in 25 with exception of sharp slowdown in China.

- prediction of 6500 for S&P 500 with expected dispersion in global equity markets.

outlook for global markets in 2025

“In the coming months, the evolution of the business cycle will likely be driven by the interaction between macro dynamics and monetary policy, with added uncertainty from potential policy changes by the new U.S. administration.”

tech. innovation and “the broadening of the AI cycle” is expected to be a driving factor across markets.

On rates

Base case macro reviews assuming growth resilience and sticky inflation limiting further policy rate easing in 25.

“However, the new Trump administration could result in tail risks, including a downside scenario where overly aggressive trade and migration policies result in an adverse supply-side shock and negative hit to global sentiment.”

Baseline scenario for 2025

Global growth continues to remain strong.

Bullish outlook on U.S. equities & gold but bearish on oil and base metals.

$BTC LTF

https://twitter.com/Stoiiic/status/1846781920123736079

VWAPs are beautiful (come at me).

They're also one of my fav. tools to use (specifically time-based & anchored) - as such, I've written about them quite a bit.

a compilation of everything VWAP (starting from the basics) so you can be a VWAP maxi too

🧵 1. Overview of VWAPs

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1777237613637743035

In lieu of the potential of what is to come -

This past weekend I scoured my notes from @TheFlowHorse streams to consolidate helpful insights.

Frameworks & Nuanced Discussion on Trending Markets, Screening Alts, Flow etc.

An all-encompassing thread 🧵 I have learned a ton from Horse in terms of frameworks and the importance of adaptability which I've incorporated in how I trade & regularly took detailed notes on his streams that I posted on Twitter from Sep. 23' through April 24'.

"A trader has one job....

to observe the story being told by the market as it develops vertically and horizontally."

An aggregation of threads on High Volume Nodes (HVNs), Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) & Point of Control (PoC) 🧵 1. Point of Control Simplified

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1795357521513005240

High Volume Nodes (HVNs) SIMPLIFIED -🧵

"A trader has one job....

to observe the story being told by the market as it develops vertically and horizontally."

an excerpt from Mind Over Markets - Dalton- describing high volume regions. Use Case of HVNs & LVNs (volume)

.....provide useful reference points that enable traders to visualize potential future activity.

The importance of such reference points lies in the detection of market change.

By monitoring activity around high- and low-volume areas, a trader can determine whether or not directional conviction has changed since the area was formed.

Through the detection of fundamental change, traders can better manage their risk and identify areas offering favorable trade location.

- J. Dalton (Mind Over Markets)

Perpetual Perspectives Episode Aggregator
+ New Podcast Intro.

Around this time last year I had the idea of starting up a series where I have purposeful conversations with traders, defi analysts, people entrenched in the space etc.

Briefly mentioned it to @perpv2 and all he asked was how he could support.

This is the encapsulation of the relationship I have with @VestExchange.

15 episodes recorded to date.

I am thankful to each and every guest for taking the time out to have these conversations with me and for being incredibly supportive.

My goal is for these conversations to stand apart from the usual and to bring as much value as I can with each episode.

Thank you. #001- @crypthoem

https://x.com/VestExchange/status/1729923239940444533

one of my favorite tool to use is:

Anchored VWAPs

why you might ask?

let's discuss the beauty of the discretionary anchor, nuanced of the AVWAP + frameworks/use cases.

The Most Comprehensive Thread on Anchored VWAPs - 🧵 First,

A detailed breakdown of what a VWAP is -

although I did detail anchored VWAPs in this thread it was fairly brief.

https://x.com/Stoiiic/status/1777237613637743035

how do I anchor fixed range volume profiles?

I've gotten asked this question a ton of times now and my response has been "intuition".

not all that helpful.

Here are a few ways to think about anchoring the volume profile (defining a start/end). 🧵 The market rotates from balance/consolidation to imbalance/trending (and vice versa).

Most of the time the market spends time in balance (ranging price action).

We can use this to our advantage.

Point of Control SIMPLIFIED

gutted to three fundamental properties using Auction Market Theory + visuals using current $BTC range.

use these...a lot.

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1. the point of control is merely a price point where the most amount of volume was transacted (buying + selling).

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two expectations:

a. inflection point (i.e. expectation of some level of reversion) when price is approaching from above or below.

high hit rate for an initial reaction depending on the significance of the PoC i.e. the amount of time the PoC has been relevant plays a factor.

i.e.
price approaching from the bottom = resistance
price approaching from above = support

b. act as a "magnet" i.e. price will revisit these areas in consolidation and seek to be pushed to the point of control once accepted into a value area.

the market spends most of it's time in consolidation.

last but not least, point of controls are not to be used blindly.

need to use context, in consolidations and ranges these tend to work well.

you can use orderflow, momentum oscillators etc. some people can infer this from price action.

different ways to approach it.

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the indicator is just a fixed range volume profile- showing the developing value area & developing PoC for the past few months since $BTC has been ranging.

let me know if you'd like to see more on this subject.

these can be used on a per session basis (intraday trading), scalping, or used for directionality bias .
just realized the images got botched. will recreate and comment. 🫡