Thread by @kromark

🧵With my colleagues, we analyzed the Russian Main Military Medical Directorate's database on 166,000 hospitalizations in Russian MoD facilities (Jan 2022–June 2024). It's incomplete but offers insights into the Russian army's dynamics. svoboda.org/a/tysyach-rane…

First things first: THIS DATABASE SHOULD NOT BE USED TO ESTIMATE TOTALS. It doesn't have those hospitalized to civilian hospitals, very limited number of wounded in 'DNR' and 'LNR' hospitals, etc. Thanks to @MassDara and @Mortis_Banned for their comments on the data we studied.

Also, A LOT of soldiers stay for a day or 2 in a field hospital before being sent back to front. They DO NOT MAKE IT TO THIS DATABASE.

Database include personal information, unit assignments, injury specifics, and treatment outcomes of the personnel. Important caveat: not ALL people in the database have ALL this information mentioned.

The database also includes those hospitalized with non-war-related injuries or even the flu. However, they are a small minority, and we assume their numbers remain relatively constant each year, so they don't significantly affect the overall dynamics.

This is a rare case where I can name the source of the leak: Alexey Zhilyaev, a Russian medic from the 144th Guards Motor Rifle Division, who defected to France in 2024. Read his interview with @severrealii here: severreal.org/a/ya-ni-o-chyo…

The database is compiled from data sent by hospitals to the Military Medical Directorate, which is then forwarded back to military units as one list to allow them to track their wounded.

We verified the database, of course, confirming that dozens of people from it fought for Russia. Some were mentioned in the press, while others were not (exhibit: a GUR Spetsnaz fighter from Dagestan and a random guy from Kazan).

Now, a few examples. Analysis shows a decrease in the proportion of officers among the wounded as the war progressed—communications issues were being resolved, allowing Russia to pull them back; HIMARS was introduced, etc.

Many in the database have their wound severity mentioned. Notably, the share of severely wounded stayed +/- the same despite Russian force growth. According to our source, MEDIVAC capacities remained the same, and military hospital limits became evident too.

Overall shares of severely/moderately/lightly wounded (note: some 'lightly wounded' were non-war sick patients). There's also a trend of lowering wound severity in hospitals to get people back to their units faster.

As the military medic who provided this database says, the only injury that guarantees you won't be sent back to war is the amputation of an arm or leg. At the same time, nearly all who make it to the hospitals survive. The problem, again, lies with the MEDIVAC capacities.

Here's one of the oldest amputees in the database, 60-year-old Artur Egorov, who played saxophone in Moscow clubs before the war.

The database shows that Russia hasn’t fully tapped into the youngest yet, with the average age of the wounded rising by 30% as mobiks and convicts were introduced—from 28 years in February 2022 to 36 in June 2023. The same issue applies to the Ukrainian army, to be honest.

The database also allows us to see which hospital treated the most wounded. Here's the top 8, with Rostov Military Hospital leading by a significant margin over second place.

The database also contains limited data on the wounded treated in Belarus (mainly Homel) during the early months of the war. Among 800 entries from Belarusian civilian hospitals, you'll find mostly National Guard troops, the 64th 'Bucha' brigade, and others.

We parsed the data of soldiers with both hospitalization and discharge dates to calculate the average time spent in the hospital for lightly, moderately, and severely wounded. This doesn’t include time in a field hospital, initial evacuation site, or rehabilitation.

As the largest part of the Russian force, motor-rifle brigades suffered most of the non-lethal losses during the period of Feb. 22 - June 24.

For more insights, like GRU Spetsnaz and VDV non-lethal losses or injury types by month, check the article—I'll share the link again: . This is just a starter kit; we had limited time and will share more (like SSO wounded losses) in future investigations.svoboda.org/a/tysyach-rane…

This and future investigations based on the database won't be possible without the enormous effort of @Mike_Eckel @CarlSchreck @pustota @riinaljas @disconnect and many others. Stay tuned!