What to watch as Germany goes to the polls:
- Will the Union scrape over 30%? Anything less would mark a hollow win
- Where will the AfD land? Polls predict a record 20%+
- Most impt: which coalitions are viable, and will Merz be forced into a potentially unstable 3-way govt?
- Will the Union scrape over 30%? Anything less would mark a hollow win
- Where will the AfD land? Polls predict a record 20%+
- Most impt: which coalitions are viable, and will Merz be forced into a potentially unstable 3-way govt?
That final question depends largely on how three small parties do. Our model ends up v bullish on Die Linke, rather less so for FDP & BSW 
For that reason we find a 72% chance that at least one CDU-led pairing (with either SPD or Greens) will have the numbers. Decent, but still nerve-wracking
Other things I'll be watching:
- regional patterns, espec west-east distribution of the AfD vote
- turnout: has fear of the AfD's rise inspired a strong counter-mobilisation, espec among the young?
- age breakdown: expect fragmentation & a poor result for the old Volksparteien
- regional patterns, espec west-east distribution of the AfD vote
- turnout: has fear of the AfD's rise inspired a strong counter-mobilisation, espec among the young?
- age breakdown: expect fragmentation & a poor result for the old Volksparteien
• • •
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