What to watch as Germany goes to the polls:

- Will the Union scrape over 30%? Anything less would mark a hollow win

- Where will the AfD land? Polls predict a record 20%+

- Most impt: which coalitions are viable, and will Merz be forced into a potentially unstable 3-way govt? That final question depends largely on how three small parties do. Our model ends up v bullish on Die Linke, rather less so for FDP & BSW

"Time has come for a European army," says @ZelenskyyUa. "Money alone will not stop an enemy assault." #MSC2025 On NATO: "This isn't about replacing our allies...it's about ensuring Europe's contribution is equal to America's."

The German press reports that JD Vance met with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel after his speech in Munich today. (Vance refused to meet Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor.)

https://twitter.com/nicolediekmann/status/1890462094190875070

Hard to overstate the outrage in Munich over JD Vance's actions today. A de facto campaign speech on behalf of the AfD 1 week before the election, entirely devoid of substance on security, when Europe craves an understanding of US policy on Ukraine. And then a meeting with Weidel

My clever colleagues have assembled a model for forecasting the outcome of Germany's election. Short thread on some of the more striking findings 🧵economist.com/interactive/20… This is @_FriedrichMerz's election to lose.

Little thread on a big day in German politics. Four things to watch for in today's elections in Saxony and Thuringia... 1. How will the AfD do? Anything less than first place in Thuringia - its first-ever win in a German state - would be a surprise; leapfrogging the CDU to win in Saxony would be a bonus. Both state branches have been formally declared extremist by domestic spooks.

Scholz speaking now: "February 24th marked a change in the history of our continent... The world after this attack is not the same as the world before it." "In Kyiv, Kharviv, Mariupol and Odessa, people are not just defending their homeland, they are fighting for liberty and democracy, for values that we share with them."

The head of the German army appears to have posted an extraordinary comment on LinkedIn this morning. DeepL translation below. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… And now @akk, defence minister in previous govt. "I'm furious at our historical failure. After Georgia, Crimea & Donbas, we did not prepare anything that would have deterred Putin."

https://twitter.com/akk/status/1496803129328816135

.@ABaerbock announces that the Greens will pursue deeper🚦talks with the SPD and FDP. The FDP will make their own announcement in an hour. It is left to Robert Habeck to declare that 🇯🇲 is not yet dead. But now v much a plan B.

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/ \ Bar a turnout estimate at 2pm, not a lot will happen before the 6pm exit poll. Then it'll be projections, speeches, discussions and TV debates galore.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but...
economist.com/graphic-detail… Please consider this an open thread for #btw21 predictions you will merrily retweet on Sunday night if correct, and quietly forget if not.

Last night, we published our forecasting model for the German federal election on September 26th (s/o @futuraprime, @gelliottmorris, @MarieSegger and others). As far as we know, nothing comparable exists in German media or elsewhere. economist.com/graphic-detail… (1/7) It follows our successful US 2020 election forecast. It is harder to apply such models to German elections, with their multiple parties and coalition governments, than two-horse presidential ones. Our model can't tell you which coalition will govern DE after 26/9. But... (2/7)

New Forsa poll on the German election is a bit of a marmalade-dropper. Quick thread. The CDU/CSU is down 3pp in a week to 23%. The Greens are on 20%, the SPD 19% (up 3pp).

With the data distortions of Easter out of the way, we can now get a sense of the progression of Germany's third covid-19 wave. Tl;dr: it's looking bad. Almost 30,000 cases were recorded yesterday. The rolling 7-day caseload is at its highest in three months, and growing quickly. The test positivity rate has been growing for two months, too.

Germany's constitutional court has ruled that Berlin's rent cap is unlawful. businessinsider.de/wirtschaft/ber… The court's website appears to be down. But here is the first part of the ruling. The rent-ceiling law is "nichtig" ("void").

https://twitter.com/LorenzMaroldt/status/1382596876122394630

Shot: Unsourced report in @handelsblatt that AZ vaccine has only 8% efficacy among over-65s.

Chaser: @bild reports that German govt expects EMA to approve AZ vaccine for under-65s only later this week.

bild.de/bild-plus/poli… (UK MHRA gave emergency authorisation to AZ on December 30th.)

Just landed at Berlin airport on last flight from UK. Federal police triaging between German citizens and the rest of us. Curious to see what happens next as we're held at passport control. Held in close quarters with no possibility to social distance. Some already complaining to police.

Public health authorities abroad watching British officials deliver scary news about infectious mutant strains must surely be wondering if they need to tighten entry requirements from the UK. mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…

After a long, and possibly rancorous, discussion between Germany's federal government and the 16 state leaders, we have the outline of an exit strategy from the coronavirus restrictions. [cont'd] - Schools will slowly begin to reopen on May 4th, starting with older pupils facing exams

- From next week shops smaller than 800 square metres can reopen, so long as they abide by hygiene rules

- Social distancing requirements will remain in place at least until May 3rd

The head of the chancellery says the govt will observe how Germans behave over the weekend, especially tomorrow. Too much mingling = curfew. spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… "I don't think people would have understood if we had asked them to stay at home with just 300 cases."

Curiously, the #MSC2019 launch event in Berlin is devoted largely to Brexit. @fromTGA explaining why Brexit will be a disaster for the EU. Next up: Barnier's deputy @WeyandSabine, who has been notably outspoken lately. .@WeyandSabine: when I look at the situation in Britain, I see an extremely polarised country asking difficult questions about globalisation. I'm not seeing a majority in the Commons for a second referendum.