Thread by @revishvilig

Annual assessment and forecasts from the Chiefs of Ukraine’s intelligence services. (Part 1)

Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of HUR:
Russia acknowledged relying on entirely false data [prior to invasion], marking a complete failure of its special and intelligence services. 1/14⬇️

These assessments were based on information from agents operating within Ukraine, leading to the expenditure of vast sums of money. Consequently, Russia's analysts drew flawed and irrational conclusions. 2/14

These factors led the Russian Federation, when initiating the "special military operation," to aim for what was termed the 3+10 plan: capturing Kyiv within three days and, no later than ten days after, suppressing any pockets of resistance. 3/14

Ultimately, this strategy escalated into a full-scale war.
Regarding munitions, especially guided air bombs and new equipment, the Russians are making notable advancements and increasing production. 4/14

Half of their munitions are sourced from Korea. Furthermore, large-scale shipments of 170mm self-propelled howitzers and 240mm multiple launch rocket systems have commenced. 5/14

This year, Russia has lowered its recruitment target for new military personnel by nearly 100,000. How successfully they meet this goal remains to be seen over time. 6/14

The Russian Federation has not abandoned its goals but faces major obstacles in achieving them. In response, it has increasingly turned to terrorist tactics, relying heavily on missile and drone attacks. 7/14

The initial North Korean troop deployment consisted of 10,000 soldiers, with approximately 4,000 severely wounded or killed. Replacements are being prepared but have yet to arrive. 8/14

North Korea is significantly increasing its arms shipments to Russia, primarily supplying 170mm howitzers and 240mm multiple launch rocket systems. 9/14

North Korean instructors are assisting in training personnel to operate this equipment. So far, Russia has received 120 units of both system types. 10/14

Initial deployments revealed low accuracy of KN-23 ballistic missiles. After modernization work conducted by Russian specialists, the accuracy has now improved to an acceptable level. 11/14

Under the current plan, North Korea is set to deliver 148 more such missiles to Russia this year. 12/14

Russia attempted several times to develop a drone launch system using Mi-8 helicopters. Two out of three attempts ended in explosions of the FPVs onboard, and since then, Russia has stopped conducting such experiments. 13/14

Budanov named two reasons why a ceasefire in Ukraine could happen as early as this year: At the very least, Russia requires a break—a ceasefire. One reason is its lack of sufficient strength, and the second is the immense financial burden it faces. 14/14