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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 26

I’ve seen the drafts of the deal before it went public

It has shifted from a cash grab - “pay us $500 billion for past and 200% repayment on future aid” - to joint investment and co-ownership

But no security guarantees

Ukraine should sign, but It is getting screwed 1/

FT: Ukraine agreed to a minerals deal with the US after Washington dropped demands for $500 billion in potential revenue

The deal is a transactional arrangement that gives Trump leverage over Ukraine’s economic future while sidestepping any firm US security commitments 2/

FT: The final agreement establishes a fund where Ukraine contributes 50% of proceeds from "future monetization" of state-owned mineral resources 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 25

I told CNN how Ukrainians see the U.S. now - something shifted. It’s no longer frustration or disappointment. It’s a raw, unfiltered sense of betrayal.

CNN: Before the invasion, many didn't believe in it. Is this happening again with a potential U.S. betrayal?

Me: The mood in Kyiv is that we have been sold out [by Trump].
I disagree with that. But, after the UN vote, I am not sure anymore.

The U.S. didn’t have to oppose the resolution—it could have abstained like China. Instead, it openly sided with Russia.
1/

CNN: Trump says Russia wants peace - but on its terms. Can any deal work without U.S. security guarantees?

Me: Russia won’t take any deal seriously without a U.S. commitment to enforcement.

It ignores Europe and will test any security guarantee. Ukraine’s bigger worry?

The rhetoric by Witkoff that the Istanbul Agreements will be the framework.

They required disarmament not just neutrality. That’s a non-starter. Peace may have no real path.
2/

CNN: Trump’s attacks may be tactics, but after the U.S. backed Russia at the UN, can his deal really favor Ukraine?

Me: The idea that Trump is posturing was believable before.

But this UN vote definitely put it in doubt. There is definitely a theory that Trump is trying to flatter Putin.

Some people put it privately to me, before punching, Trump has to get the opponent off guard.

But now I think it is much less likely.
3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 25

China - next!

The EU is offering Ukraine a critical materials deal. If it’s serious, Ukraine could walk away from the U.S. offer. Unlike Washington, Brussels and London back Ukraine on security, and are willing to increase their support 1/

If this is a coordinated message to the U.S., it signals a bolder, more assertive EU and aligns Ukraine with the EU firmly

The EU, I hear, start looking for ways to engage China, without the U.S. 2/

At the very least, I think, the EU should be buying some weapons or its inputs from China not the US.

The U.S. won’t benefit, the EU will get more for its every Euro, and becomes more diversified. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 25

The world order has collapsed

Yesterday was a historically terrible day - the U.S. aligned with Russia against Ukraine’s resolution at the UN, Trump spoke about his deal with Russia, and the messaging from Putin and Trump’s team became even more synchronized: 1/

Both the U.S. and Russia question President Zelensky’s legitimacy, frame Ukraine as a provocation for war, and absolve Russia of aggression

Not a good world, not a lot of promise for a safe a prosperous European future 2/

So I thought about what to do

Work. Victory or defeat is the sum of actions taken over years, even decades.

So, I’m going to the U.S. to secure more funding for the Kyiv School of Economics, particularly for economic, security, and foreign policy analysis 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 24

Putin joins the rare earth metals rush!

Putin:

Russia would be willing to offer the U.S. a deal on rare earth metals

Russia has more rare earth metals than Ukraine 1/

Putin: Zelensky stands in the way of peace that Russia and the U.S. want to achieve in Ukraine

(He is serious! Zelensky gets in the way of carving up Ukraine. Ukrainians too) 2/

Putin: Zelensky’s rating is exactly half that of Zaluzhny.

(I guess, it is 8%, the double of 4%. But seriously the approval rating of Zelensky is 50-60% depending on the poll, and he has the lead in the election polling after Trump’s attacks) 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 24

For the first time, Trump’s press conference was dull. Even Macron, who tried correcting him, barely put in the effort.

Has he lost his magic?

Trump: Zelensky will visit to sign the deal, a similar deal with Russia, Zelensky’s a dictator, Putin not, we want our $350B back 1/