Thread by @P_Kallioniemi

In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce Russia’s main narratives and explain how they are being spread online by Russian operatives and MAGA Republicans. After three years of war, Russia still relies on old narratives, now amplified by the Trump administration.

1/25

Throughout the years – or even decades – Russia’s narratives against the West have remained largely the same. Many of them date back to the Cold War era, when the KGB and CIA were bitter enemies. But since then, the media landscape has drastically changed.

2/25

Russian propaganda and disinformation revolves around four main themes:

1) Russia is the victim,
2) Historical revisionism,
3) The “decadent West” is collapsing,
4) The CIA and/or “evil Anglo-Saxons” are behind every revolution & anti-Kremlin activity.

3/25

Today, Russia’s information warfare has 3 main goals:

1) End all aid to Ukraine,
2) Change leadership in Kyiv,
3) Lift Russia sanctions

Right now, the Kremlin’s disinformation mainly focuses on demonizing Ukraine’s leadership, especially President Zelenskyy.

4/25

Since the Trump administration is actively aligning itself with the Kremlin, the MAGA movement and its leaders have been aggressively spreading these lies. The most prominent one, even echoed by Trump, is that Zelenskyy is a “dictator” who doesn’t want peace.

5/25

First, Trump has demanded that Ukraine hold elections. This is impossible, as Ukraine is under martial law due to Russia’s invasion, and its constitution prohibits elections during wartime. Also,how would people in occupied territories vote? Who would oversee the process?

6/25

Second, Trump and his allies have criticized media censorship in Ukraine. In reality, Ukraine shut down outlets owned by Viktor Medvedchuk – Russia’s top choice to lead a puppet government if Kyiv fell. His channels were 100% Russian propaganda.

7/25

Third, many Trump associates have condemned the banning of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP). The Russian Orthodox Church, led by KGB agent Vladimir Gundyayev, functions as an extension of Russian intelligence agencies.

8/25

Fourth, Trump has inflated the amount of US aid sent to Ukraine while ignoring the fact that 90% of Ukraine-related spending stays in the country, creating thousands of jobs. His actions have hurt the US defense industry, causing defense stocks to plummet.

9/25

Fifth, MAGA Republicans now accuse Zelenskyy of “murdering journalists,” referencing the case of Gonzalo Lira. Lira was a violent criminal propagandist who violated the Article 463-2 of Ukraine’s criminal code, and died of pneumonia after years of smoking two packs a day.

10/25

Other fake stories are circulating too, mainly spreading doom and gloom about Ukraine’s situation. These have been thoroughly debunked by @TheStudyofWar in their Ukraine fact sheet:

11/25

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/u…

Tracking how these narratives infiltrate MAGA circles is easy – they mainly originate from two sources: Douglas Macgregor and Tucker Carlson. Macgregor is a former US military officer who, at some point, decided to start rooting for Russia.

12/25

Macgregor has been consistently wrong about Ukraine since day one of the full-scale invasion, yet people still take him seriously. Unsurprisingly, Russian state media frequently cite him:

13/25

https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1609831498156331008

Most of you already know Tucker Carlson and probably remember how he was humiliated by Putin, or how he was astonished to find fresh bread in a French supermarket in Moscow. For years now, he’s been busy laundering Russian lies into social media.

14/25

Many of the major lies now being spread by Trump and his associates originated from Tucker’s show on X. For example, Bob Amsterdam, who has been pushing Russian narratives and who was working for Russian oligarch Vadym Novynskyi, has appeared on Tucker’s show twice.

15/25

Tucker and Macgregor serve as “canaries in the coal mine” for Russian propaganda – when they start pushing a narrative, expect it to reach Trump and his inner circle within 6 to 12 months. Russian state media RT has also called for promoting Tucker’s content.

16/25

There are other sources of Russian disinformation, too. AI-generated fake news sites have been spreading lies for years. One of the masterminds behind these networks is an American living in Moscow, John Mark Dougan:

17/25

https://x.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1648640636680118272

A recent US Department of Justice indictment (sadly, probably the last one we’ll see for a while for this type of activities) revealed that the Kremlin funnels money to social media influencers who then spread Russian propaganda for profit.

18/25

Russia and the Trump administration are also focusing on attacking America’s former allies in Europe while manipulating US elections through social media. Russia’s goal is to polarize Western societies and fuel internal division.

19/25

At the same time, people like Elon Musk and JD Vance complain that the EU is “censoring” social media by enforcing content regulations. Vance has even suggested that the US could pull off of NATO if the EU started regulating Elon’s X.

20/25

The US has no moral high ground on this issue–Trump and his allies have persecuted journalists, fired critics, and run the world’s largest prison industrial complex, with 1,8 million people incarcerated. Also, their “freedom of speech” only seems to extend to social media.

21/25

And if censorship is so bad, why isn’t the US criticizing Russia? Putin’s regime has banned nearly all independent media, blocked Western social platforms, and imprisons anyone who criticizes the war. They won’t even call Russia the aggressor of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

22/25

It looks like the Trump administration’s endgame is to lift all sanctions on Russia & pursue economic cooperation, sidelining the EU in global decision-making while weakening transatlantic alliances. And loot Ukraine together with Russia while throwing them under the bus.

23/25

Right now, the Trump administration is filled with Kremlin fans. Musk, RFK Jr., Tulsi and JD Vance all have their own Vatnik Soup entries (along with Trump) due to their tendency to spread the Kremlin’s lies. They’re supported by social media superspreaders like Tucker.

24/25

If Ukraine and Russia eventually reach a peace deal, the Kremlin’s disinformation efforts won’t stop – they will escalate, shifting their focus to destabilizing Europe with US support.

I hate repeating myself, but Europe REALLY needs to prepare for all this.

25/25

The 2nd edition of “Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation” is officially out!

You can order your copy here:

kleart.eu/webshop/p/vatn…