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Bravos Research Profile picture
@bravosresearch
Feb 24, 2025 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Tariffs are set to rise to 18% under Trump

This level was last seen around the Great Depression

Things are about to get absolutely crazy…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ One Trump policy could negatively impact the economy is tariffs

This looks similar to Herbert Hoover’s trade policies

Which contributed to the onset of the Great Depression Image
3/ Hoover came to power during a booming market but faced rising wealth inequality - a situation that mirrors today’s conditions

His aggressive tariff policies aimed to address those disparities, but ultimately backfired Image
4/ The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs back then raised US tariff rates to 20%, triggering a global trade war

Many people believe this policy played a major role in the market crash that followed Image
5/ Since then, US tariffs have steadily declined

However, Trump’s proposed trade policies could reverse that trend

Potentially raising rates to nearly 18% - a level that could hurt corporate profits and drag down stock prices Image
6/ For instance, during the Great Depression, profit margins fell from 10–12% to nearly 0%, contributing to a 90% collapse in the US stock market

Tariffs weren’t the only factor behind the crash though - debt, bank failures, and deflation also played roles

Still, trade policies were a significant contributor back then
7/ With corporate profits at all-time highs, a global trade war could reverse that trend

While this might reduce wealth inequality in the long run, falling asset prices could mean considerable short-term financial pain Image
8/ The effects of tariffs wouldn’t be felt immediately though

Studies of past trade wars show a lag of about a year between implementation and economic consequences

Depending on Trump’s actions, the impact could hit by 2026 Image
9/ This strengthens our conviction in an economic downturn in 2026

Don’t forget to join Bravo’s Research competition

And take advantage of the 30% DISCOUNT while it lasts at:

bit.ly/BravosResearch
10/ Thanks for reading!

If you enjoyed this thread, please ❤️ and 🔁 the first tweet below

And follow @bravosresearch for more market insights, finance and investment strategies

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More from @bravosresearch

Bravos Research Profile picture
May 18
The US stock market is now more expensive than it was in 1929, 1965, and 2000.

Each of these coincided with a major market top that led to over a 35% drawdown.

But each of them were triggered by one key factor…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ 1929, 1965, and 2000 marked some of the highest stock market valuations in modern history.

And today the stock market is at even higher levels than any of those periods.

Now, valuations are not a timing tool.

But historically, extreme valuations have done a surprisingly good job at signaling major market peaks.Image
3/ In 1929, the valuation peak was followed by an 80% market collapse during the Great Depression.

In the 1960s, it led into a decade of stagnation as stock market valuations were slowly repriced.

And in 2000, the dot-com bubble burst and wiped out trillions of dollars in market value.Image
Read 24 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
May 13
The probability of an economic recession has just hit 50%

This has preceded every single downturn since 1960

Buckle up…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ This line represents the probability of the Fed raising their interest rates in 2026 based on bond market expectations.

And the other line represents the probability of rate cuts.

Rate hikes are now becoming the highest probability scenario for the rest of 2026. Image
3/ And if these expectations are right, they're going to have massive consequences for the US economy.

Because right as this is happening, economists are increasingly warning about a potential recession. Image
Read 22 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
May 8
Hyperscalers are set to spend $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year.

Investors are already comparing today’s AI boom to the 2001 internet bubble.

But the underlying economy may be telling a completely different story…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle are expected to spend $700 billion this year alone on AI infrastructure.

That's more than the entire GDP of developed nations like Sweden or Singapore. Image
3/ This spending spree has probably been the single biggest force driving the stock market over the past few years.

Investors see this massive spending and assume that it will translate into significant future growth.

And since these companies make up a large portion of the market, their spending has the power to lift the entire index with them.Image
Read 20 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
May 6
Major market drawdowns have proven to be exceptional buying opportunities

But the forces behind this buy-the-dip psychology are now reversing…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ The stock market has often recovered quickly from major macro shocks, including:

- 6 months after the pandemic
- 12 months following 50-year high inflation
- 3 months after a trade war disruption

Recently, the Iran war has disrupted global oil supply, but the market recovered to ATHs within just a few weeks.Image
3/ We've seen a similar pattern play out multiple times over the last 15 years.

Every single correction was immediately followed by a market rally.

But today, the forces behind this buy-the-dip mindset are reversing. Image
Read 22 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Apr 30
Oil shocks have systematically coincided with a rising unemployment rate

This happened in the 1970s, 1990, 2001, and even 2008

But there is one big difference this time around…

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ The US stock market has just made its fastest 10% jump since May 2025.

We’ve only seen similar moves 4 other times since 2009: April 2020, January 2019, October 2011, and March 2009.

And each of these rallies were followed by more upside on the stock market. Image
3/ On the other hand, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey just hit levels weaker than during the heart of the financial crisis.

This is a survey that tells us how people feel about the future of their own financial situation and the economy.

So the war in Iran is certainly not making everyday people more optimistic about the economy, unlike what investors seem to be pricing into the stock market.Image
Read 26 tweets
Bravos Research Profile picture
Apr 28
The US stock market just hit record highs despite a major oil shock

Historically, such oil shocks have triggered economic recessions

Is this time different?

A thread 🧵 Image
2/ After some talks of a ceasefire, oil prices went down and stocks reached new ATHs.

But oil is still 40% up from its pre-war levels.

Shouldn't the economic drag of a 40% oil jump prevent the stock market from hitting record highs? Image
3/ What many people miss is that this has less to do with the S&P 500 itself and more to do with the currency it’s priced in - the US dollar.

And this is leading us straight into what we think is one of the biggest investment opportunities in the last 10-years. Image
Read 24 tweets

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