Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/ 
As far as I understand from this statement, there will be a new Ukrainian brigade based on Nordic & Baltic training and equipment. In theory, this is positive news. This could, at its best, produce a highly capable unit, trained by some of the best militaries in Europe. 2/
But here’s the catch: this brigade is being formed at a time when Ukraine faces a chronic manpower shortage. Simply put, Ukraine doesn’t lack brigades, it lacks men. Depending on its structure, this Nordic-Baltic-trained brigade could be somewhere between 3000-5000 soldiers. 3/
Meanwhile, troops fighting on the front lines desperately need reinforcements, which they are not getting in sufficient quantities. Some battalions are nearing the fighting strength of platoons. Ukraine’s tendency to keep forming new brigades is a problem, not a solution. 4/
The Ukrainian army has around 3-5 brigades in formation stages or otherwise unclear statuses. Earlier this winter, rumors swirled that some might be disbanded, though other statements denied this. One or more of these could form the basis for the Nordic-Baltic-trained brigade. 5/
It’s also possible that Ukraine is trying to form another totally new brigade. I hope that’s not the case. However this is implemented, it is ultimately just one brigade in a large war. The project should have started much earlier for a greater impact. 6/
The Nordic and Baltic countries are continuing their other military aid, the training of the brigade is just one of them. Unfortunately, nothing new was seen from the countries’ joint statement today, although fresh approaches would be needed in the current situation. 7/
The most pressing question in Europe is, who will send troops to ensure that a coming ceasefire holds? A true show of strength and commitment would’ve been a pledge of a brigade consisting of Nordic and Baltic soldiers sent to guard the contact line in post-ceasefire Ukraine. 8/
Europe wants a seat at the negotiating table. It requires real initiative and risk tolerance. Assembling a brigade from a manpower-starved nation’s soldiers, while repeating obvious talking points about continuing aid and pressuring Russia through sanctions, doesn’t cut it. 9/9
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