Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Feb 25 29 tweets 12 min read Read on X
The Gripen was designed by Sweden for Sweden's Bas 90 air base system and - truly - Sweden built the perfect fighter for Sweden's Bas 90 system... which resulted in a fighter no one but Sweden needs.

Bear with me as I explain a few things @Saab doesn't want you to know.
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Bas 90 was developed in the 1970s, when the Swedish Air Force was flying the Viggen (and some upgraded Draken). Bas 90 consisted of some 30+ reserve air bases with a 2,000+ metres (6,600+ ft) long main runway and 2-3 short runways of 800 metres (2,600 ft).
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Here are the airbases of Kubbe (63°37'59.81"N 17°56'10.79"E) and Jokkmokk (66°29'48.43"N 20° 8'45.17") with the short runways highlighted in red.

Some of the short runways used public roads, but most were built specifically for the Bas 90 system in the 1980s.
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These short runways (or Kortbanor) were only meant to be used as backup in case the main runway was damaged. And their use was limited to daytime and good weather operations. And they were too short to get a fully loaded and fuelled fighter in the air. And they were not road
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runways. Sweden's road runways were built as part of the earlier Bas 60 air base system and they were much longer (1,500–2,000 metres / 4,900–6,600 ft) and a bit narrower (12 metres / 39 ft) than the Kortbanor runways (Width: 17 metres / 56 ft). So when people say the Gripen
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can take off from roads - that is true; and when they say the Gripen can take off from short runways - that is true too, but (!) the limitations are still that these operations are limited to daytime and good weather, and that on a short runway the Gripen is limited to
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air-to-air loads only.
Not just the Gripen, but every Western fighter (F-15, F-16, F/A-18, F-22, F-35, Eurofighter, Rafale), was designed for short take offs and road runways. And all of them share the same limitations.

(Pic: a F/A-18 takes off from a road runway in Finland)
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In short: if a Gripen can take off from a runway, then so can every other Western fighter with the same configuration.

In peacetime every Bas 90 was guarded by a dozen men. During wartime one of 33 Basbataljon 85 would have manned each base and this has led to Gripen fans
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constantly mention that "conscripts can rearm and refuel the Gripen in 10 minutes".

Cool, cool... I and any five of my followers can do that after 10 minutes of training too.

Let's look at refueling: one photo shows the refueling of an F-35B and the other of a Gripen C.
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The nozzles are the same, so any fighter can be refueled at any NATO base... and every NATO conscript can do that in minutes.
Saab also likes to mention that you can "hot refuel" the Gripen, which means refuel while the engine runs... every Western fighter can do that.
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Now when it comes to weapons, again - every NATO conscript can do it... because the Gripen uses almost only NATO missiles, bombs, pods etc.
Only 1 weapon system you attach to the Gripen is a pure Swedish design.
In short: if Swedish conscripts can refuel and rearm a Gripen
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10 minutes, so can any other Western conscript crew with a fighter with the same weapons load.

The Gripen was designed in the 1980s for dispersed operations on the Bas 90 bases. And it excels at that... but every other Western fighter was designed with the same in mind.
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Gripen fans confuse all of these operational variants, short runways, road runways, dispersed operations, conscripts, etc. and believe it is unique to the Gripen... but Bas 90 bases are still air bases. A Basbataljon 85 consisted of 1,500 to 2,700 men, because
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even though few troops are needed to mount weapons on a Gripen and refuel it, staff, logistics, meteorology, base defence, medics, quartermaster, air traffic control, fire fighting, engineers, etc. etc. require 100s of additional personnel.
Sure, you can deploy a Gripen with
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just a ground support element of 6 people... if you embed them in an allied base.
In short: The Gripen needs as many troops to operate as any other Western fighter. And the number of personnel tasked with rearming and refueling are for all fighters similar.
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It just takes 12 (!) airmen to operate an F-35 contingency location, where two F-35 can be refueled and rearmed at the same time.
Also every Western fighter carries more ammo and fuel than a Gripen... and while the F-35A carries most fuel (18,250 lb), the F-15EX carries most
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ammo (29,500 lb; to compare the B2 stealth bomber carries 40,000 lb).

I mention fuel and ammo, because the Gripen didn't need much of the former and few of the latter to excel at its original mission - to intercept Soviet fighters, bombers and ships over the Baltic Sea.
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In short: the Soviets were considered to be the only threat and to attack Sweden they had to cross the Baltic Sea or fight through Finland. Therefore scrambling fighter jets and intercept aerial threats respectively lob anti-ship missiles at Soviet amphibious landing ships
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were key missions for the Swedish Air Force. Therefore the SH 37 Viggen maritime reconnaissance fighter and the AJ 37 Viggen strike fighter carried two RB 04 anti-ship missiles, while the JA 37 Viggen fighter carried two Skyflash air-to-air missiles... which would have been
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lobbed at Soviet forces approaching Sweden.
This required the fighters to fly just a short distance out over the Baltic Sea: at maximum 300-400 km from the air bases furthest infland.
And when the Gripen was designed with a weaker engine than the Viggen (54 kN vs. 72 kN) the
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Gripen's internal fuel tanks were designed 40% smaller than the Viggen's (5,000l vs. 3,000l).
Not a problem if you have to take off, fly 200km and then lob an AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missile or a RBS-15 anti-ship missile at Soviet targets. But for most other air forces
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wholly inadequate. Sure you can mount external fuel tanks on the Gripen... which increases drag, reduces speed, increases fuel consumption, and blocks hardpoints, of which the Gripen has just 8.
A Rafale can mount three external fuel tanks and still have 11 hardpoints free.
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(And a Rafale carries more than double the Gripen C's internal fuel).
The Gripen was designed to defend Sweden and for that mission it was always an excellent choice... but Sweden was a neutral country, where the enemy would most likely come from the sea... which makes the
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Gripen C an ideal fighter for i.e. neutral Ireland, but not for Canada (due to its vast size), or the UK (due to the RAF having to patrol 1,000s of km into the North Atlantic and fly to attack russian forces in Eastern Europe.
The Gripen offers no advantage in operations or
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maintenance, it carries less fuel and ammo than any other fighter, it has neither stealth nor supercruise (The Gripen NG test aircraft flew a few miles at supersonic speed after having switched off the afterburner - that's not supercruise that cheating) and, unlike the
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Gripen C, which was cheaper than other Western fighters, the new Gripen E is more expensive.
The small production with just 10 aircraft per year is too small for economies of scale... to compare: Lockheed Martin produces more F-35 every 3 (!) weeks.
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No Air Force in its right mind will buy a Gripen... especially no Air Force, which wants to buy a non-American design, because while the Gripen A/B's engine was a licensed produced GE F404 engine and the Gripen C/D's engine was Swedish built version of the GE F404, the
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Gripen E/F engine is an American made GE F414-39E engine. Engine production in Trollhättan ceased in 2012 and GKN Aerospace in Trollhättan does only provide engine product support.
Summary: the Gripen was designed in the 1980s for the defence of Sweden and excelled at that.
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Nowadays every Western fighter in production outclasses the Gripen C and in most aspects also the Gripen E, which is also more expensive than the best Western fighter the F-35A.
And thus, if you want to buy a European fighter the only options are: Eurofighter and Rafale.
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More from @noclador

Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
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troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
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Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


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and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
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Read 41 tweets
Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

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These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
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of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
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Read 36 tweets
Sep 1
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
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As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
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(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
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Read 39 tweets
Aug 18
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
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backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
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in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
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Read 14 tweets
Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
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This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
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This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
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Read 12 tweets

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