1/6 russia is losing the war it started in Ukraine. Only the cowardice of the West can save it from a strategic defeat 
2/6 Had anyone been told in March 2022 that the situation would be the current one three years later, we would have all seen it as a massive Ukrainian victory and russian defeat.
3/6 russia won't reach its initial strategic goals, and it was closer to achieving them in March 2022 than it is now. As the initiator of the war, russia faces the pressure of reaching its goals if it wants to win the war.
4/6 russia has suffered between 600,000 and 800,000 casualties, yet it still only occupies around 20% of Ukraine, down from 30% in March 2022. russia is also still fighting on its own territory and has been unable to push Ukrainians out of Kursk Oblast.
5/6 russia's economy is facing a tough situation, with a 21% key interest rate that does not manage to stop inflation. The only way russia can avoid a strategic defeat is if the West saves it with undeserved compromises during negotiations.
6/6 Source:
The Economist - How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump
The Economist - How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump
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