The guy who has been effectively the lead dev for a while will be moving on from @THORChain
As I mentioned yesterday, I will also see myself out if we don't rapidly adopt a solution to stop NK flows, so this will likely be one of my last posts on the TC subject
The TC community has strong beliefs based on what they learn from a messaging that is disconnected from the reality of the people who have been executing on the frontlines. For the longtime now the people communicating and the people maintaining the network have had different views.
As an example, the company running the dev team is american, the devs are mostly americans, they are also the biggest infrastructure provider. Other large infrastructure providers are north americans.
Wallet integrations that provide the majority of the non toxic volume are also corporations and they ALL already censor transactions on their front ends, as I said in my post it is my understanding that a lot of them will be moving on if Thorchain keeps this going
You can say as many times as you want that a blue car is read, but it won't make Thorchain truly decentralized, censorship resistant and permissionless... it's a handful of actors running all the infra and a handful of corporate actors providing all the user flows. My team has spent a lot of time helping newcomers setup validators and learn how to run infrastructure, it isn't easy, it's a lot more complex than anything else we have touched in the blockchain space.
The ethos about being decentralized are just ideas, the same as liquidity blackhole, going live 3x without an audit, various economic incentives that moved risk under the hood like lending, savers, ILP, synths etc.
Sometimes ideas seem nice on paper but don't pan out in reality.
Or maybe they will, and a group will keep maintaining the network in it's current state.
Some of the design choices like running full infrastructure for every chain made it very complicated to onboard new validators and as a result there isn't that many actors running things
It's my opinion that it's not decentralized enough to survive a regulatory attack, it's not a blockchain like eth or btc who have a huge larger validator / node base
BTW as usual I will get shot as the messenger but I have talked about this for years, advocated for lite nodes that check endpoints (recently integrated with base), to move onto a consensus mechanism that allows more validators etc
For those that hate me for speaking out against the cult, don't worry there is a good possibility this is one of the last time I ever speak publicly about Thorchain.
When the huge majority of your flows are stolen funds from north korea for the biggest money heist in human history, it will becomes a national security issue, this isn't a game anymore
The threshold you want to be credibly decentralized you need a network of 1000+ unique validators
There is a reason why @Chainflip fixed this issue on the network level so quickly and all front end are applying censorship
I have brought this to my validator group for questioning almost immediately after those flows started and reached out to team members
@THORChain Update : $eth halted again, @ol3gpetrov is working on something to block wallet addresses at the Bifrost level, there should be a governance vote tomorrow.
@THORChain @ol3gpetrov This is the current votes on halting $eth until a solution has been found
This comes from one of the smartest guys in the ecosystem and a guy who's ethics I respect : @mogarchy
He is directly in touch with front ends
Read in between the lines
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Now that @THORChain got rid of leverage, I executed my first large spot buy in a long time
It might look to do it that early in the organisation, but I think we probably already hit close to the bottom.
Here's why :
🧵🔽
There is no risk of death spiral, the features have been suspended.
The majority of the selling volume is perp short sellers speculating it's going into a reflective negative cycle. The features that could send it in a downward reflective spiral are disabled and will be eliminated from the protocol, it's the only way.
Only about 3m net $rune got sold on chain by large (50k+ $rune) streaming swaps.
With 44m $rune in the pool that's about a 6.8% downward pressure on price.
I don't know how in heaven the (ex) core team thought shorting $btc to buy your own asset was a good idea. FTX paved the way for this and has shown us what would happen.
In the event of any large debt redemption and/or savers & synths deleveraging, it is certain that TC cannot meet its bitcoin and eth denominated obligations.
Validators decided to pause the network while they vote a restructuring plan
🔽🧵
I'm not going to beat around the bush and act like everything is allright. It isn't.
Thorchain's liabilities :
- $97m of lending liabilities ($eth $btc)
- Approximately $102m worth of savers and synths ($eth $btc)
Thorchain's assets are $107m of exogenous liquidity into the liquidity pools
This can also be pulled by LPs at any time or sold into by $rune holders if there is panic.
The deleveraging of the @THORChain base layer is the most bullish catalyst since streaming swaps
Back to first principles 🔽 🧵
I've always felt that the central planning aspects of Thorchain were counterproductive
For sustainable liquidity, fees simply need to be greater than impermanent losses
This sounds simple but it's very hard to achieve, only a handful of Uni pools have the majority of LPs winning
What really matters for the @THORChain to distribute more revenue than ILs, then liquidity will scale
This vol needs to come from real swaps, not toxic flows (arbs, MEV etc). Toxic flows are necessary to enable a good user experience but always taking profits out of the pools.
Suject : My market analysis, thesis & trades for the next weeks
- $rune
- long short trading pairs
- retail onboarding
- state of institutional capital
- price targets
- ethbtc
1:
It's $rune time :
@THORChain lending is open and onboarding millions of capital per day in the ecosystem. It's just passed $500m in TVL and it's going much higher.
It's my biggest long lev trade
I believe it will overperform 99% of other projects over the next few weeks
1: (ext)
Another @THORChain beta is @Maya_Protocol
Maya is a @THORChain fork that aims to support smaller blockchains.
$cacao might have been the fairest launch ever, better than $btc that had the first millions of coins mined by insiders, there is no inflation or emissions.
Supply is 5x less than $rune
They gave 100% of the tokens to ecosystem participants that added liquidity and ran the validation with 0 team share, everything is already vested and circulating
The team only makes money if the product is being used, they get 10% of the protocol fees generated
It's heavily correlated to $rune because the biggest liquidity pool is $rune. That pool enables interfaces to seemingly integrate Maya to route liquidity to the smaller chains.
The catalysts coming up : $arb integration and streaming swaps launch
I called ethbtc bottom and rotated at 0.0505 after the ETF. I think this will play out well in the next months.
After a few weeks of sideway, people that have been extremely risk on will think and realize the reality : this year will be mostly about $eth (ETF) and the l2s.
Take out the top 1000 crypto devs, probably 900 working in the $eth ecosystem.
Every DEFI protocol on other chains is an ETH protocol fork of copy.
The $eth forced selling is over, it held really well during the bear
Start of bull bled into $btc because of ETF, however the capital rotation was the easiest trade to predict in 2023.