The guy who has been effectively the lead dev for a while will be moving on from @THORChain

As I mentioned yesterday, I will also see myself out if we don't rapidly adopt a solution to stop NK flows, so this will likely be one of my last posts on the TC subject

The TC community has strong beliefs based on what they learn from a messaging that is disconnected from the reality of the people who have been executing on the frontlines. For the longtime now the people communicating and the people maintaining the network have had different views.

As an example, the company running the dev team is american, the devs are mostly americans, they are also the biggest infrastructure provider. Other large infrastructure providers are north americans.

Wallet integrations that provide the majority of the non toxic volume are also corporations and they ALL already censor transactions on their front ends, as I said in my post it is my understanding that a lot of them will be moving on if Thorchain keeps this going

You can say as many times as you want that a blue car is read, but it won't make Thorchain truly decentralized, censorship resistant and permissionless... it's a handful of actors running all the infra and a handful of corporate actors providing all the user flows. My team has spent a lot of time helping newcomers setup validators and learn how to run infrastructure, it isn't easy, it's a lot more complex than anything else we have touched in the blockchain space.

The ethos about being decentralized are just ideas, the same as liquidity blackhole, going live 3x without an audit, various economic incentives that moved risk under the hood like lending, savers, ILP, synths etc.

Sometimes ideas seem nice on paper but don't pan out in reality.

Or maybe they will, and a group will keep maintaining the network in it's current state.

Some of the design choices like running full infrastructure for every chain made it very complicated to onboard new validators and as a result there isn't that many actors running things

It's my opinion that it's not decentralized enough to survive a regulatory attack, it's not a blockchain like eth or btc who have a huge larger validator / node base

BTW as usual I will get shot as the messenger but I have talked about this for years, advocated for lite nodes that check endpoints (recently integrated with base), to move onto a consensus mechanism that allows more validators etc

For those that hate me for speaking out against the cult, don't worry there is a good possibility this is one of the last time I ever speak publicly about Thorchain.

When the huge majority of your flows are stolen funds from north korea for the biggest money heist in human history, it will becomes a national security issue, this isn't a game anymore

The threshold you want to be credibly decentralized you need a network of 1000+ unique validators

There is a reason why @Chainflip fixed this issue on the network level so quickly and all front end are applying censorship

I have brought this to my validator group for questioning almost immediately after those flows started and reached out to team members @THORChain Update : $eth halted again, @ol3gpetrov is working on something to block wallet addresses at the Bifrost level, there should be a governance vote tomorrow.

Now that @THORChain got rid of leverage, I executed my first large spot buy in a long time

It might look to do it that early in the organisation, but I think we probably already hit close to the bottom.

Here's why :

🧵🔽 There is no risk of death spiral, the features have been suspended.

The majority of the selling volume is perp short sellers speculating it's going into a reflective negative cycle. The features that could send it in a downward reflective spiral are disabled and will be eliminated from the protocol, it's the only way.

Only about 3m net $rune got sold on chain by large (50k+ $rune) streaming swaps.

With 44m $rune in the pool that's about a 6.8% downward pressure on price.

.@THORChain is insolvent

In the event of any large debt redemption and/or savers & synths deleveraging, it is certain that TC cannot meet its bitcoin and eth denominated obligations.

Validators decided to pause the network while they vote a restructuring plan

🔽🧵 I'm not going to beat around the bush and act like everything is allright. It isn't.

Thorchain's liabilities :
- $97m of lending liabilities ($eth $btc)
- Approximately $102m worth of savers and synths ($eth $btc)

More self inflicted pain this morning as one of the @THORChain OG founder used admin mimir keys to suspend loans and savers redemptions for 12 months

Validators re-enabled them and looks to permanently retire admin-mimir

🔽 While I agree with the sentiment that we need to strip out @THORChain's leverage, I think it was the wrong way to go about it.

You cannot just freeze people's assets unilaterally, that would be fraud.

The deleveraging of the @THORChain base layer is the most bullish catalyst since streaming swaps

Back to first principles 🔽 🧵 I've always felt that the central planning aspects of Thorchain were counterproductive

For sustainable liquidity, fees simply need to be greater than impermanent losses

This sounds simple but it's very hard to achieve, only a handful of Uni pools have the majority of LPs winning

🧵time

Suject : My market analysis, thesis & trades for the next weeks

- $rune
- long short trading pairs
- retail onboarding
- state of institutional capital
- price targets
- ethbtc 1:

It's $rune time :
@THORChain lending is open and onboarding millions of capital per day in the ecosystem. It's just passed $500m in TVL and it's going much higher.

It's my biggest long lev trade

I believe it will overperform 99% of other projects over the next few weeks

Smol 🧵 :
My take on the market & opportunities

I called ethbtc bottom and rotated at 0.0505 after the ETF. I think this will play out well in the next months. After a few weeks of sideway, people that have been extremely risk on will think and realize the reality : this year will be mostly about $eth (ETF) and the l2s.

Take out the top 1000 crypto devs, probably 900 working in the $eth ecosystem.

Every DEFI protocol on other chains is an ETH protocol fork of copy.

The "where does the yield comes from" day is brought to you by @THORChain & @ErikVoorhees

16.74% on ETH?
24% on USDC / USDT ?

How is this possible ?

TDRL : Swap volume & fees have grown faster than liquidity

Thread 🔽🧵 @THORChain is a decentralized binance that offers native assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum on a DEX

Those are the two biggest trading pairs in crypto

Binance generates $10bs of fees in a bull market, so will @THORChain.

Difference : yield goes to the liquidity providers.

Bitcoin is now supported by @MetaMask

This is not a drill.

Small 🧵🔽 Today MetaMask launched Snaps. They are plugins that enable more functionality for users.

ShapeShift built the multi-chain functionality for :
- Bitcoin
- Litecoin
- Dogecoin
- Cosmos
- BCH
- Thorchain

More will be added

1.

What if I told you the project generating the 2nd highest amount of revenues in crypto (after $eth) is currently ranked #79 in market cap?

And that their usage has been steadily growing 10% to 30% a month?

Thread🧵🔽 2.

I’ve been analyzing and covering crypto casinos and sports-books for a year.

I’ve now taken a big bet on what I believe to be the best risk reward since I found about $gmx at $16.

1/12

We are in a crypto bull market now, people just dont know yet ⬇️ 2/12

Every ‘’scary’’ macro event will only be bullish

1/28

RIP governance tokens 🧵⬇️ 2/28

DEFI apps were always going to be the first widely used application on $eth.

I’m not arguing against what was built.

We made everything financial that made sense & inevitably lots of stuff that didnt.

1/15

Thread :

Why $canto is built different 🔽

I'l give a @cantoadznft among retweets. 2/15

There are $83B of stables circulating on eth. $72B of this is $USDC and $USDT. These are followed by the app issued stablecoins, $5b of $DAI, $1b of $Frax, and then a long tail of different designs.

1/8

Let the $canto flywheel commence

Small thread ⬇️ 2/8

At this point farming stables on $canto at 20% is by FAR the best risk adjusted stable return. TVL will likely double here by some time in february.

1/17

Time for a $lunc update following the 1.0.4 update.

I posted a step by step fix to access all delegation for all validators in 16/17
⬇️ 2/17

Problem :
Some validators are showing up intermittently on Terra Station. My validator is part of those.

Solution :
There is a work around : use the Rebels Station wallet.

This is new, use at your own risk. Info in 16/17

News came out that Metamask would collect IP using the default RPC.

The @THORChain team (@CBarraford) is working with @ShapeShift to decentralize RPCS, using a similar middle chain design as THORchain. @THORChain @CBarraford @ShapeShift @THORSwap already fixes interface tracking. It has no data collection. It charges no extra fees. It supports a lot of dexes. You don't need to go to uniswap anymore.

DEXes already supported :
✅THORChain
✅0x
✅1inch
✅Uniswap
✅SushiSwap
✅Pangolin
✅Trader Joe

1/6

$btc hashrate going parabolic here is very fishy.

There is no financing avaliable in the space and mining is unprofitable.

While it happened before, but the amount of money needed this time is orders of magnitude higher. 2/6

The EV of starting to mine here VS just buying and hodling $btc is negative.

The additional competition will put more leveraged $btc miners out of business.

SBF was supposed to custody deposits at a 1:1 ratio.

He didn't. He stole your money and used it for something else.

That's the only story.

There is no other story.

Call out journalists agressively. They keep lying with impunity.

They promoted this ponzie on the way up. Hard. He built a backdoor in his exchanges from day 1. Not just FTX, SRM etc

Then outstanding assets were stolen the night of the collapse.

If that doesn’t tell you criminal intent then what does?

It's been a while since I had an exciting morning in DEFI.

Thanks @avi_eisen This story is not done.
Someone is caught short. Avi is still long.

Funding rates are high.
1400% bybit
2.5% a day on binance

1/5

There’s many explosive situations in CeDefi but nobody is talking about what happens to on chain liquidation if there’s a blows up.

$eth could go sub $700 ⬇️ 2/5

On chain liquidations for $eth:
55 000 $eth at $955
130 000 $eth at $920
100 000 $eth between $833-866
285 000 $eth between $790-820
117 000 at $783
400 000 at $700

Today felt really shitty.

It's the first time I sell crypto on news, there's too many moving parts that can go wrong.

Just took one L after another on long term HODL.

Sold my end of the risk spectrum smallcap & NFTs. Sold better assets, hoping to buy them back at a lower price I don't see a lot of people talking about it, ppl are making jokes and hoping this will pass.

Things can get brutal.

There's no FED bailout.

Hopefully we wipe out every debt & risk out of the system and start fresh here. We need to see out everyone who's been swimming naked.