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Tom Nuttall Profile picture
@tom_nuttall
Feb 28 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Merz on Trump and European defence:
"A very bad scenario could arise for us, with enormous challenges: that we have to take Europe's defence into our own hands. Can we do that today? The answer is no. Do we want and need to do that soon? Definitely yes."
archive.is/Ird5o#selectio…
Merz cont'd:
"Today we have what is known as nuclear sharing with the Americans. Whether we can go in this direction with France or Great Britain is something I want to discuss in the coalition negotiations, and with our partners in Europe, the EU and NATO."
Merz cont'd:
"Articles 4 and 5 of the NATO Treaty on consultation and mutual assistance remain unchanged, and thus Germany's nuclear sharing with the Americans remains unchanged to this day. But here too, let us hope for the best and be prepared for the worst."

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More from @tom_nuttall

Tom Nuttall Profile picture
Feb 23
What to watch as Germany goes to the polls:

- Will the Union scrape over 30%? Anything less would mark a hollow win

- Where will the AfD land? Polls predict a record 20%+

- Most impt: which coalitions are viable, and will Merz be forced into a potentially unstable 3-way govt?
That final question depends largely on how three small parties do. Our model ends up v bullish on Die Linke, rather less so for FDP & BSW Image
For that reason we find a 72% chance that at least one CDU-led pairing (with either SPD or Greens) will have the numbers. Decent, but still nerve-wracking
Read 4 tweets
Tom Nuttall Profile picture
Feb 15
"Time has come for a European army," says @ZelenskyyUa. "Money alone will not stop an enemy assault." #MSC2025
On NATO: "This isn't about replacing our allies...it's about ensuring Europe's contribution is equal to America's."
"Some people in Europe may not understand what's happening in Washington," says @ZelenskyyUa. "Does America need Europe as a market? Yes. Does America need Europe as an ally? I don't know."
Read 5 tweets
Tom Nuttall Profile picture
Feb 14
The German press reports that JD Vance met with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel after his speech in Munich today. (Vance refused to meet Olaf Scholz, Germany's chancellor.)
Hard to overstate the outrage in Munich over JD Vance's actions today. A de facto campaign speech on behalf of the AfD 1 week before the election, entirely devoid of substance on security, when Europe craves an understanding of US policy on Ukraine. And then a meeting with Weidel
Some context for my new US followers. The AfD is considered sufficiently extreme that parts of the party are under domestic surveillance. Marine Le Pen considers them beyond the pale. Some embassies in Germany refuse all contact. It is no trivial matter for a VP to meet with them
Read 4 tweets
Tom Nuttall Profile picture
Jan 29
My clever colleagues have assembled a model for forecasting the outcome of Germany's election. Short thread on some of the more striking findings 🧵economist.com/interactive/20…
This is @_FriedrichMerz's election to lose. Image
Image
@_FriedrichMerz The FDP enters parliament in only 12% of our simulations. We also forecast that both Die Linke and the BSW fall short, though the latter is close.

Whether or not the small parties win seats has big implications for distribution of seats, and thus coalition formation. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tom Nuttall Profile picture
Sep 1, 2024
Little thread on a big day in German politics. Four things to watch for in today's elections in Saxony and Thuringia...
1. How will the AfD do? Anything less than first place in Thuringia - its first-ever win in a German state - would be a surprise; leapfrogging the CDU to win in Saxony would be a bonus. Both state branches have been formally declared extremist by domestic spooks.
2. Will the new "left-conservative" Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance match its strong showing in the polls? Crucially, will it beat the CDU in Thuringia, giving Katja Wolf first dibs on the state premiership?
Read 7 tweets
Tom Nuttall Profile picture
Feb 27, 2022
Scholz speaking now: "February 24th marked a change in the history of our continent... The world after this attack is not the same as the world before it."
"In Kyiv, Kharviv, Mariupol and Odessa, people are not just defending their homeland, they are fighting for liberty and democracy, for values that we share with them."
"The attack is a disaster for Ukraine, but it will prove to be a disaster for Russia too."
Read 9 tweets

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