Thread by @thomasdggeddes

First reactions from 🇨🇳 to the #ZelenskyTrump debacle are emerging.

This one comes from Shen Yi (沈逸), Director of Fudan University's National Security Research Centre, and a highly popular nationalist opinion leader (+ propagandist).

[KEY POINTS] 🧵

▫️Interestingly, Shen places part of the blame on Zelensky:

"#Zelenskyy directly confronted #Trump and #Vance in front of the media ... Zelensky chose to interrupt Vance's speech and raised a series of questions that, in theory, should have been discussed behind closed doors."

▫️Shen continues:

"From the perspective of negotiation strategy and game theory, this indicates that Zelensky had neither interest nor confidence in the current agreement or negotiations with the #USA from the outset."

"Zelensky's bargaining chip is to go all the way to the end ... From a game theory perspective, this is certainly the worst possible strategy for #Ukraine. But for him personally, it may not be the worst, as it at least preserves his reputation—albeit at 🇺🇦's expense."

▫ On Trump:

"Trump was clearly furious. The scene was rather embarrassing, as Trump's greatest concerns—his aura, his image, and the fear of exposing his true nature as someone who 'talks big but actually knows nothing'—were laid bare for all to see."

▫️Implications for Ukraine:

"But one thing is certain: Trump and #Putin have likely reached a new tacit understanding regarding Kyiv—an implicit consensus to 'eliminate him' (把他做掉). The consequences of this will become increasingly apparent on the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 front in the future."

▫️A win for #Russia (and for #China):

"The shockwaves and consequences of this will be profound. If even Zelensky can go head-to-head with Trump both in person and on social media, how will 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇸 perceive Trump? One thing is for sure: vodka sales in Red Square will benefit."

▫ Shen's three lessons for 🇨🇳 citizens:

1⃣ "First, clinging to America's leg comes with significant risks—deadly risks—and can result in a disgraceful demise."

2⃣ "Second, strength, strength and more strength [实力]. Doing what needs to be done, achieving effective development, enhancing [national] power and securing safety—this is the hard truth [for 🇨🇳]."

3⃣ "Third, if you think the #UnitedStates is risky and have no interest in 🇷🇺, then there is still another path in the world that, once pursued, can lead to achievements at the level of ‘clear winds over hills, bright moon over great rivers' [i.e. one provided by 🇨🇳]."