Chinese scholars are split on #Trump’s victory: some are deeply worried; others excited.

Today's edition brings together the perspectives of six prominent 🇨🇳 IR experts on what Trump's win means for #China and the world.

🧵Their views in 6 key quotes 🧵
sinification.com/p/china-reacts… 1⃣ Huang Jing:

“Both #DonaldTrump and #Vance have publicly stated that the #USA should ‘join hands with #Russia’ to counter China. If such a situation arises, China’s security environment would deteriorate drastically.”

How does #China view 🇮🇳 foreign policy under #NarendraModi?

The director of CICIR's Institute for South Asian Studies, Hu Shisheng (胡仕胜), may provide a few clues.

With a commentary by the excellent Manoj Kewalramani (@theChinaDude).

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/indian-forei… ▫️The Author

Leading Chinese scholar Zheng Yongnian (郑永年) pushes back against accusations that #China has an #overcapacity problem.

"Without productive power, changing the world is impossible", he argues.

His views in eight key points:

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/prof-zheng-y… ▫️The Author:

Vice president of 🇨🇳 MSS-affiliated think tank CICIR and director of its Institute of European Studies, Zhang Jian (张健), wrote in 2022 about the "Frenchification of the EU" and its implications for #China.

His views in eight key points:

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/the-importan… 1⃣ Until the outbreak of the #UkraineRussiaWar, the EU was undergoing a process of “Frenchification”, with more and more French ideas being translated into EU policies.

Two Chinese analysts from SIIS (a top Chinese think tank) discuss the current rapprochement between #Russia and #NorthKorea, and worry about the repercussions this may have on regional stability and #China's global image.

What did they say?

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/russia-north… ▫️Their views in a nutshell:

1⃣ #Russia-#NorthKorea ties remain fragile, transactional and based on short-term geopolitical interests.

Ex-director of CASS's prestigious Institute of 🇹🇼 Studies, Zhou Zhihuai, recently shared his thoughts on the outcome of last month's #TaiwanElection, which he described as having had a “profound impact on the future direction of cross-Strait relations”. 🧵
sinification.com/p/taiwans-elec… ▫️ Since his semi-retirement in 2017, Zhou has held a number of research positions and has continued to work within the framework of China’s United Front Work Department.

Must-read piece by one of 🇨🇳's top IR scholars, Shi Yinhong (时殷弘), on #China's new approach to the #BRI and Beijing's "strategic priorities".

With a commentary by @MoritzRudolf.

What did Shi say?

[THREAD] ▫️ The Author:

Blinken, Yellen, Kerry and Kissinger have all travelled to #China in recent weeks. How have their visits been assessed by some of 🇨🇳's top international relations experts? Where do they see US-China relations heading? Their views in 4 key quotes:

THREAD🧵
sinification.com/p/from-blinken… 1⃣ "The recent back-to-back visits of Blinken, Yellen, and Kerry to China have not yielded any real and substantive results, except perhaps for the strengthening of both sides' willingness to prevent a US-China military conflict.”

One of the Global South's leading voices, 🇧🇷 Lula, is in #China.

Prof. Cheng Yawen argues that "🇨🇳 and develop. countries need to break the current core-periphery world order" and build a new international system free from Western interference.

THREAD
sinification.com/p/three-rings-… 🔹The Author: Cheng Yawen (程亚文) – Researcher at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University.

#Brazil’s president Lula will be travelling to #China this week and meeting Xi Jinping on Friday.

Why does Lula’s Brazil matter to China? And what are Chinese experts recommending Beijing do in order to strengthen its ties with Brasilia?

THREAD 🧵
sinification.com/p/what-china-e… 🔹Authors:

▫️ 7 researchers from the Institute of Latin American Studies, which is part of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

▫️ Lead auhtor: Zhou Zhiwei (周志伟) – Director of the Centre for Brazilian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

🇨🇳-🇷🇺 relations have almost always been marked by a certain amount of mutual distrust.

Feng and Wen's critique of Putinism is a useful reminder that both sympathisers and sceptics of 🇷🇺 most likely coexist within the confines of Zhongnanhai.

A SUMMARY 🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/a-damning-cr… 🔹 The authors:

▫️ Feng Yujun (冯玉军): Director of the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan Univ. Former CICIR analyst (1994 to 2016).

▫️ Wen Longjie (文龙杰): Postdoc researcher at Fudan Dev. Institute and Chief Kazakhstan correspondent, China News Service.

This is what PKU Prof. Lu Feng (路风) was saying in January about foreign companies such as #ASML complying with US #chip export controls.

EXCERPTS 🧵 1⃣ “Since the #USA has used its ‘nuclear weapon’ against China, we should strike back and use our own ‘nuclear weapon’. More specifically, the US’s method of suppressing 🇨🇳 is to control the supply of chips. Well then, [in return], 🇨🇳 should and can control the demand for chips.”

Fudan Prof. Jian Junbo (简军波) discusses the European Union's #StrategicAutonomy, 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 relations in 2023 and provides his government with a few suggestions.

THREAD 🧵 🔹EU #StrategicAutonomy according to Jian:

1. Benefits the development of #EU-#China relations by freeing the EU from the influence of “third parties” (i.e. the US).

2. In line with China’s desire for a multipolar world order.

However...

One year after #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, Chinese experts assess the war's impact on 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 and 🇪🇺-🇺🇸relations and predict what may lie ahead.

Hint: Uncertainty prevails...

KEY TAKEAWAYS 🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/eu-china-rel… 1⃣ The #UkraineWar has hobbled the EU’s push for #StrategicAutonomy, but its desire to pursue this goal remains.

2⃣ The war has increased the EU’s dependence on and tilt towards the #UnitedStates. This trend is largely expected to continue.

New op-ed by one of 🇨🇳's key voices 'communicating with the West', ex-PLA colonel Zhou Bo in the FT yesterday:

"Will the war in #Ukraine spill over into a third world war? The short answer is: not unless #China lends military support to #Russia."

1/7
ft.com/content/c01227… "#Beijing and #Moscow’s 'unlimited' friendship has alarmed the west. But imagine for a moment: if two countries vow to develop their friendship, then how could they place limits on it?" 2/7

The effect of the #UkraineRussiaWar on the EU's quest for #StrategicAutonomy according to CICIR analyst Zhang Jian.

🔹CICIR is one of #China's most influential think tanks with links to the 🇨🇳 Ministry of State Security.

EXCERPTS 🧵 🪧 What is EU #StrategicAutonomy?

According to Zhang at least, it means the #EU “breaking away from US control and gaining the power to make strategic decisions on its own.”

How is the #UkraineRussiaWar affecting the #EU's prospects? Its economy? Its place in the world?

▫️ Zhang Jian (张健): "It will further weaken the 🇪🇺's strength and int. influence and accelerate its marginalisation in the global geopolitical landscape."

sinification.substack.com/p/the-future-o… 🔹The author: Zhang Jian (张健) is the director of the Institute of European Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) – an influential think tank linked to China’s Ministry of State Security.

cicir.ac.cn/NEW/expert.htm…

How to protect #China from #Russia-like sanctions?

This question continues to be debated by Chinese analysts.

▫️ Ye Yan's solution: Beijing should build an international alliance of businesses to circumvent and neutralise Western #sanctions

A THREAD 🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/countering-w… 🔹About the author: Ye Yan (叶研) is currently a senior economist at the international R&D arm of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and an adjunct professor at China’s Southwest University of Political Science & Law.

How should #China respond to the growing political divide between China and the West?

▫️ Yang Ping (杨平) advocates building a new international system led by China and countries in the Global South rather than the West.

🧵🧵🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/facing-the-g… 🔹The author: Yang is the head of the highly regarded Beijing Cultural Review (BCR). He is also the director of the Longway Foundation which publishes BCR. The foundation describes its publication as “the most influential magazine of intellectual thought and commentary in China”.

🪧 Remember #XiJinping encouraging #CCP members/diplomats to show a “fighting spirit" and his repeated emphasis on "being good at struggling"?

What this implies is still being debated in #China.

Below is a 'moderate' take by one of China’s most respected US specialists:

🧵🧵🧵 🔹 Da Wei (达巍) is a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University and the director of its prestigious Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS).

Important read by Peking Univ. scholar Lu Feng (路风) on the 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 #CHIP War.

▫️ "Since the #UnitedStates has used its ‘nuclear weapon’ [i.e. tech] against China, #China should strike back and use its own ‘nuclear weapon’ [i.e. its market]."

A SUMMARY:
sinification.substack.com/p/us-china-chi… 1⃣ The scope of the Washington’s #tech crackdown has always been constrained by the reliance of US companies on the Chinese market. Lu recommends further weaponising #Chinese demand.