Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳 Profile picture
Mar 1 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The Trump-Zelensky fight was the unintended consequence of a setup from both sides.

Zelensky wanted to act tough on camera, and Trump got cold feet and wanted to back out of the deal presented by Rubio.

Ultimate fault lies with Rubio and his State Department.
Here's why🧵:
1/8 Image
The details of this mineral for protection deal would've been drafted by the State Department, and sold as a profitable business transaction by Rubio to Trump.
Trump initially liked it, but reality probably set in for him.

Rare Earth minerals are not rare per se. However, because of its low concertation, mining it requires a robust mining industry.

It is only economically viable IF your country has an existing robust mining industry.
Nor the US or Ukraine has that capacity.

So, Trump was deceived by Rubio and the State Department neocons, Trump then realized it's not profitable AND that he can't provide the security guarantee demanded by Zelensky.

Hence he wanted to back out.
And this is where JD Vance came in. Trump asked him to provoke Zelensky.

During diplomatic meetings like this in front of the cameras, the deputies usually do not speak unless asked to.

Which is why I believe this was planned ambush by Trump, and little Marco was unhappy. Image
Zelensky's motives were a lot simpler, albeit he also planned to have this confrontation.

He wanted to grand stand in front of the global media, because he couldn't get the security guarantee that he wanted before hand.

He didn't want to sign the deal before he came to the US Image
Maybe he thought he can soften Trump a little before the closed door meeting.

Ultimately the fault lied with Rubio and his State Department, they are incompetent enough to invite Zelensky over BEFORE ironing out the details of the mineral for protection deal.
Usually, things like security guarantees and other details like the economic viability of this mineral for protection deal would be sorted out before the heads of states meet and ceremoniously sign it.

If you really want to blame someone, blame Marco Rubio.

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More from @zhao_dashuai

Feb 5
The US have promised to ethnically cleanse Gaza of the Palestinian population.

This is for the ultimate goal of the creation of Greater Israel, where Arabs live as 2nd class citizens under the Zionist apartheid.

The Arab world must wake up, here's what they must do.
🧵1/16 Image
First thing first, get rid of all the weapons systems of Western origin.

All of it, even the European ones has backdoors that prevents their usage against Israel.

Might is Right, you don't have any bargaining power unless you have the fire power to back it up.
Then splurge on Chinese weapons.

Currently, China is the only non-Western weapon exporter that can provide full sets of weapon systems on time.

So what kind of weapons do the Arab nations need? Image
Read 17 tweets
Jan 25
Air superiority over Taiwan is crucial for the PLA.

With it, we can obliterate any troop concentrations and land where ever we want, or we could impose crippling blockades.

Without it, nothing can happen.
🧵Thread on why Taiwan has no chance in maintaining air superiority
1/10 Image
First of all lets lay out the ground work.

This thread won't take into account of the fact that the PLA air force is about to be 2 generations ahead of the Taiwanese air force.

Nor the fact that the PLA can launch saturation attacks against their airports, disabling them. Image
To make it interesting, we are giving the PLA air force a handicap, just to give Taiwan at least a glimmer of hope.

Spoiler alert, even with these handicaps, Taiwan still won't stand a chance.

Why? because the island of Taiwan does not have any strategic depth.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 18
Taking Taiwan made easy.

How a new ship type will open up the entire Taiwanese coast for PLA landing en masse.

The most comprehensive step by step thread on the fate of Taiwan when war starts.
🧵 Image
These specialist ships are barges that sail on its own.

When it reaches the landing zone, it will be turned into a temporary port/pier, that will allow Ro/Ro ships to disembark armored formations en masse.

These barges are just the connector, they don't carry troops themselves Image
Image
Some may ask, but wouldn't they be easy targets.

Here's the reality, when these ships enter the battlefield, the PLA would've already gained air supremacy over the island and the Taiwan strait.

The PLA air force is about to be 2 generations ahead of Taiwan's air force. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 16
China's trade surplus reached a historic $1 trillion.
🧵On how China broke the conventional neoliberal view on trade.

An interesting contribution to the surplus is the plateauing of Chinese imports.

Linked to the industrial upgrade of China, there are just not many things we need to buy from other countries, other than things we can't make, such as raw material.Image
Many take China's existence as the world's factory for granted, but before the rise of China in the 1990s the world economy were a lot different.

Less global, local manufacturing were the norm, Japan and South Korea were the first post-war outsource destination, but...
../they were relatively small AND MORE IMPORTANTLY only served rich economies.

(Many developing economies back then haven't even exited the agrarian economy, let alone consume manufactured goods).
Read 13 tweets
Jan 7
The Indian air force still haven't received the Tejas fighters they ordered in 2009.

Tejas is a low-end 4th gen fighter, the world has moved onto 6th gen fighters.

India's war strategy revolves around the 2.5 front war theory.

A thread on the strategic predicament of India.🧵
India's 2.5 front war means when war comes for India, they will have to fight China and Pakistan simultaneously, while also having to deal with the half (0.5) front of homegrown insurgents.

Recently, the addition of Bangladesh means India will have to deal with a 3.5 front war.
In the near future, China's aircraft carrier battlegroups will rule the Indian ocean.

So by 2030s, India will have to deal with a 4.5 front war(China in the Himalayas and Indian ocean, Pakistan, Bangladesh and insurgency).

How India plans to fight their 2.5, now 3.5 front war?
Read 10 tweets
Jan 5
China's Kede created their oblique angle 5 axis continuous CNC machine tool.

They are used in high precision manufacturing, such as turbofan engine components.

Thread on productivity and China's economic transition.🧵
When some in the West talk about China's manufacturing advantage, they're still stuck in the decade old stereotype of cheap labor.

In reality, China's manufacturing prowess comes from the millions of STEM graduates our university produces each year.
Progress made by companies like Kede embodies the economic transition of China.

We have already transitioned from being reliant on low-end manufacturing to mid and high end manufacturing.
Read 8 tweets

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