The Trump-Zelensky fight was the unintended consequence of a setup from both sides.
Zelensky wanted to act tough on camera, and Trump got cold feet and wanted to back out of the deal presented by Rubio.
Ultimate fault lies with Rubio and his State Department.
Here's why🧵: 1/8
The details of this mineral for protection deal would've been drafted by the State Department, and sold as a profitable business transaction by Rubio to Trump.
Trump initially liked it, but reality probably set in for him.
Rare Earth minerals are not rare per se. However, because of its low concertation, mining it requires a robust mining industry.
It is only economically viable IF your country has an existing robust mining industry.
Nor the US or Ukraine has that capacity.
So, Trump was deceived by Rubio and the State Department neocons, Trump then realized it's not profitable AND that he can't provide the security guarantee demanded by Zelensky.
Hence he wanted to back out.
And this is where JD Vance came in. Trump asked him to provoke Zelensky.
During diplomatic meetings like this in front of the cameras, the deputies usually do not speak unless asked to.
Which is why I believe this was planned ambush by Trump, and little Marco was unhappy.
Zelensky's motives were a lot simpler, albeit he also planned to have this confrontation.
He wanted to grand stand in front of the global media, because he couldn't get the security guarantee that he wanted before hand.
He didn't want to sign the deal before he came to the US
Maybe he thought he can soften Trump a little before the closed door meeting.
Ultimately the fault lied with Rubio and his State Department, they are incompetent enough to invite Zelensky over BEFORE ironing out the details of the mineral for protection deal.
Usually, things like security guarantees and other details like the economic viability of this mineral for protection deal would be sorted out before the heads of states meet and ceremoniously sign it.
If you really want to blame someone, blame Marco Rubio.
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China's trade surplus reached a historic $1 trillion.
🧵On how China broke the conventional neoliberal view on trade.
An interesting contribution to the surplus is the plateauing of Chinese imports.
Linked to the industrial upgrade of China, there are just not many things we need to buy from other countries, other than things we can't make, such as raw material.
Many take China's existence as the world's factory for granted, but before the rise of China in the 1990s the world economy were a lot different.
Less global, local manufacturing were the norm, Japan and South Korea were the first post-war outsource destination, but...
../they were relatively small AND MORE IMPORTANTLY only served rich economies.
(Many developing economies back then haven't even exited the agrarian economy, let alone consume manufactured goods).
The Indian air force still haven't received the Tejas fighters they ordered in 2009.
Tejas is a low-end 4th gen fighter, the world has moved onto 6th gen fighters.
India's war strategy revolves around the 2.5 front war theory.
A thread on the strategic predicament of India.🧵
India's 2.5 front war means when war comes for India, they will have to fight China and Pakistan simultaneously, while also having to deal with the half (0.5) front of homegrown insurgents.
Recently, the addition of Bangladesh means India will have to deal with a 3.5 front war.
In the near future, China's aircraft carrier battlegroups will rule the Indian ocean.
So by 2030s, India will have to deal with a 4.5 front war(China in the Himalayas and Indian ocean, Pakistan, Bangladesh and insurgency).
How India plans to fight their 2.5, now 3.5 front war?