Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Mar 2 25 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Yesterday I posted a thread about American weapons and components in fighter aircraft and how Europe has to wean itself off them.

Today let's look at transport, tanker, maritime patrol, and airborne early warning aircraft.
(Tomorrow then trainer aircraft and drones)
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Transport aircraft come in two sizes: for strategic airlift or tactical airlift.
Simplified: strategic airlift transports materiel between continents and tactical airlift within a theater of operations.
For strategic airlift the choice for Europe is easy: A400M Atlas, because
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it is the only strategic airlifter in production (C-17 Globemaster production ceased in 2015) and because the French were involved in its design the A400M Atlas comes with all key parts "Made in Europe".
Yes, it carries only half the payload of the C-17 Globemaster, but for
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Europe this is more than enough.
In regards to tactical airlift the West's choice has always been the C-130 Hercules... even though Italy built the Aeritalia G.222 and France/Germany the Transall C-160.

Even today many European air forces (even the French and German) fly
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either C-130 Hercules (🇦🇹🇬🇷🇳🇱🇵🇱🇵🇹🇷🇴🇸🇪) or C-130J Super Hercules (🇩🇰🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇳🇴🇹🇷).

To replace the C-130 is an issue for European air forces... the only similar aircraft is the Brazilian Embraer C-390 Millennium, which already the air forces of 🇦🇹🇨🇿🇭🇺🇳🇱🇵🇹🇸🇰🇸🇪 have chosen.
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The C-390 Millennium carries more further and faster than the C-130J Super Hercules, but it includes American parts (besides Portuguese, Czech and Argentinian parts).
It uses the V2531-E5 engine, a variant of the IAE V2500... and here things become tricky: that engine was
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a joint US-British-Japanese-German-Italian development for the Airbus A320, but the Italy's Avio left and the UK's Rolls-Royce sold its shares to Pratt & Whitney... nonetheless there are still two production lines: a P&W owned in Connecticut and a R&R owned near Berlin, which
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means I have no idea if Trump could block the use of V2531-E5 engines.
As the C-390 Millennium is produced in Brazil European air forces should look at the European made tactical airlifters, but they all come with issues: production of the Ukrainian Antonov An-178 has ceased
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due to obvious reasons.
The Italian C-27J Spartan is full of American parts, as it was designed as a "baby Herc" with the same avionics, cockpit layout and engines as the C-130J Super Hercules.
The engines are AE2100-D2A made by Rolls-Royce North America, and thus not safe
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from the whims of a Trump administration.
The Spanish made CASA CN-235 and C-295 (photo) are smaller than the C-130J Super Hercules, and neither uses a European made engine. The CN-235 uses so many US made avionics that the US has already vetoed the export of the CN-235.
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While the CN-235 uses GE CT7-9C3 engines, the C-295 uses Canadian developed and made Pratt & Whitney Canada PW127G engines... which poses the interesting question: how safe is Pratt & Whitney Canada from White House interference?
In short: when it comes to tactical airlift
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Europe has home made options... but none is free of American components.
This leaves Europe with two pricey options: either buy more expensive A400M Atlas, which can also perform tactical airlift roles like dropping paratroopers (photo), or develop either a Europeanized
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version of the C-390 Millennium (or the similar sized Japanese Kawasaki C-2), or develop a "baby A400M", or design US components out of C-27J and C-295.

However as the threat to Europe comes nearby russia buying more airlift isn't as urgent as i.e. improving rail transport.
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Next tanker aircraft for aerial refueling: there are two ways to refuel an aircraft in flight:

• flying boom (favored by the US)
• probe-and-drogue (favored by Europe)

Flying booms extend from an aircraft's rear and are guided by an operator onto a receiver's receptacle.
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Booms have higher fuel flow rates, which are important when you refuel i.e. transporters or bombers.

Probe-and-drogue consists of a flexible hose with a drogue at its end, into which a pilot has to guide his plane's probe. This allows to refuel 2 aircraft at the same time.
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Eurofighter, Gripen and F-35B have retractable probes for probe-and-drogue operation, while the Rafale and A400M have fixed probes.
The F-35A has receptacle for boom operations, but can be fitted with the same retractable probe as the F-35B (and the F-35C).
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Luckily Europe produces the Airbus A330 MRTT, which can refuel in both ways.
Both photos in tweet 14 show an Australian A330 MRTT refueling fighter with both systems.
The A400M Atlas, KC-130J Super Hercules and C-390 Millennium can also refuel aircraft... as can the Rafale.
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As for Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) to hunt for and sink russian submarines... the UK, Norway and Germany bought the American P-8 Poseidon, while Spain bought C-295W-MPA and Italy (as interim solution) P-72A ASW aircraft... this leaves just France, Portugal and Greece with
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the need for a new MPA. Unless these three nations (and Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands) band together and order Airbus' A319 MPA Europe won't have a competitive MPA for years to come... and everyone will remain depended on Boeing and the US.
For such niche capabilities
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European nations have to pool their orders or Europe's industry will never develop a system to rival the US' systems.
Last but not least for today: airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft. Everyone knows the iconic Boeing E-3 Sentry with its rotodome above the fuselage.
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Europe needs these aircraft as they maximize air-to-air capabilities. Currently there are three options on the market:
🇺🇸 Boeing E-7 Wedgetail aircraft
🇮🇱 EL/W-2085 or EL/W-2090 radars
🇸🇪 Saab Erieye radar (photo)

The two Israeli and the Swedish radar can be mounted on
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different aircraft. So far Italy has mounted the Israeli EL/W-2085 and on both sides of a Gulfstream G550 (photo 1), while Spain has developed a prototype, which mounts EL/W-2090 radome on a CASA C-295 (photo 2).
The UK, Türkiye and NATO itself ordered E-7 Wedgetail.
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I would hope the rest of Europe follows Greece, Poland, Sweden and Ukraine and orders the European made Erieye AND mounts it on a European made plane (which in this size-class is difficult... as even some of the French Dassault Falcon business jets use Pratt & Whitney Canada
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engines).
Summary: Europe's aviation industry can provide European air forces with every kind of aircraft needed... but for niche capabilities like MPA and AEW Europe has to band together and order one type for all air forces to get production numbers to viable level.
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And stop buying US made engines: buy Safran, MTU or
Rolls-Royce. The same applies to avionics etc. Only if we buy European can Europe thrive and be safe from the orange russian flunkey in the White House.
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More from @noclador

Sep 13
Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?

There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia
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could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5
troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Sep 7
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.

If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.

This will be a unsettling thread:
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This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.

To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,


2/n
and at the WWII Battle of the Atlantic. We will also have to take a deep dive into the Cold War and that era's submarines and submarine tactics.

In WWI the Imperial German Navy sent some 300+ submarines into the Atlantic, which sank more than 4,000 merchant vessels. The UK
3/n Image
Read 41 tweets
Sep 4
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).

Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war:
1) Black Sea
2) Baltic Sea
3) North Atlantic

1/36 Image
These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.

I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid
2/n
of Europe... we will be on our own, which will have very dire consequences for the battle in the North Atlantic and thus the UK.

First, let's look at the Black Sea, where russia's Black Sea Fleet has already been savaged by the Ukrainians (pic: the sinking cruiser Moskva).
3/n Image
Read 36 tweets
Sep 1
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU

Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).

Let me explain.
1/39 Image
As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.

Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but
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(there is always a "but" with European militaries):

• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries
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Read 39 tweets
Aug 18
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.

Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
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backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).

Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came
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in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
Read 14 tweets
Jul 4
This is Berlin.

And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12 Image
Image
This is Copenhagen.

And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12 Image
Image
This is Paris.

And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12 Image
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Read 12 tweets

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