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Playfra

@Playfra0

Mar 3 • 9 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X

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All along the front, the #Ukrainians 🇺🇦 are fighting the #Russians 🇷🇺 for the initiative and are conducting small tactical counterattacks, buying crucial time to reinforce defensive positions in the rear that #Russia 🇷🇺 can't afford to give #Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Stay with me in this thread while I analyze which new defensive lines were built and which reinforced, from #ChasivYar to #Zaporizhzhia.

🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️

2/🧵

Lately, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been launching many small counteroffensives all along the front and has been successfully repelling #Russia 🇷🇺's attacks, with February being the month of least #Russian territorial gains since summer 2024.
It is though important to correctly interpret the objectives of these small counterattacks and debunk common beliefs of an incoming big counteroffensive. The objectives are:
1. Buying time
2. Tactical position improvement
3. Questioning Russian initiative

3/🧵

As said, the crucial time bought by these localized counterattacks is being put to use by reinforcing defensive positions in the rear. Let's start analyzing this process more in-depth with #ChasivYar.

Trenches:
- No visible changes.

Anti-tank ditches:
- New line north-east of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended the two already existing lines east of the city.
- New line between the city and Ivanopillya.
- New line south-west of Kostyantynivka.

Dragon's teeth:

- New line crossing the railway at the northern exit of Chasiv Yar.
- 3 new lines at the eastern entrance of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended line at Bila Hora.
- New lines and extensions south of Kostyantynivka and Ivanopillya in correlation with the worsening of the situation in Toretsk at the start of February.

Barbed wire:

- Extended line east of Kostyantynivka.
- New lines east of Ivanopillya.

4/🧵

Moving on to the one everyone was waiting for, #Pokrovsk.

Trenches:

- New (likely Slovyanka-style) trench systems belonging to the new Prosiana line.
- Some more systems belonging to the Mezhova - Slovyanka line were dug.
- 3 new trench systems at the north-eastern entrance to Novopavlivka.
- Many new trenches along the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road and behind the Hryshynka river.

Anti-tank ditches:

- New ditches dug around Havrylivka belonging to the Prosiana line.
- Extended ditch south of Novopavlivka.
- New ditch at the north-eastern entrance of Novopavlivka.
- Slightly extended ditch west of Muravka.
- Significantly extended ditch north of Slovyanka.
- New ditch south-east of Andronivka.
- 3 new ditches dug along the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road.
- Extended existing ditches along the same road.
- New ditches behind the Hryshynka river belonging to the homonymous line.
- New ditches south of Shevchenko.
- New ditches west of Shevchenko just south of the Vodyana river.
- New small ditch north of Rodynske.
- Extended ditch east of the railway east of Rodynske.
- Extended ditch north of Myrnohrad.
- Slightly extended ditch north-east of Dobropillia.
- Significantly extended ditch south of the Bychok river.
- 2 new long ditches dug west of Kostyantynivka north of the same river.
- New ditch north-west of Kostyantynivka.
- New ditch south-west of Kostyantynivka.

Dragon's teeth:

- New very long line around Prosiana and east of Havrylivka belonging to the Prosiana line.
- New line north-east of Novopavlivka.
- New lines west and east of Muravka.
- Many new lines between Novopidhorodne and Serhiivka.
- New line north-west of Serhiivka near the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road.
- New lines east of Myrnohrad.
- 2 new lines north-east of Dobropillia.
- 3 new lines north of the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka road.

Barbed wire:

- New very long line around Prosiana belonging to the Prosiana line.
- Komar - Bahatyr line in process of completion.
- New line south of Sribne.
- New lines all around Troiitske.
- New lines west of Nadiivka/Nadezhdynka.
- New line south-east of Muravka.
- New significant line guarding the western entrance to Pokrovsk.
- New lines defending the tips of the treelines north of the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road.

5/🧵

And now for the Zaporizhzhia direction, which is getting more significant by the day because of the worsening situation at Velyka Novosilka.

Trenches:

- New trench system south-east of Zaporizhzhia city.
- New trench systems (likely Slovyanka-style) north-east of Uspenivka.

6/🧵

In conclusion, #Ukraine 🇺🇦's increased use of barbed wire all along the front is noticeable, with time spent without #Russian 🇷🇺 attacks often translated into reinforcement of existing frontline positions. It was also possible to observe a general speeding up of the fortification placement process, and I think the pace will continue to increase in the coming weeks and months.

7/🧵

The most active direction was by far #Pokrovsk, where #Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces, as said, are using to the maximum extend their "free time" to reinforce positions in the rear.
As always, I really want to re-iterate that fortifications are not the only thing one should analyze when drawing one's own conclusions. Above all, command reforms are needed, and in some specific directions manpower issues are still very well present. Fortifications are complementary to a military that functions efficiently.

7/🧵

Thanks for reading this thread! I would've really liked to make it longer, but as you've seen from my posting frequency, I'm under bad time constraints because of my studies.
Still, if you liked it, please consider following me, reposting this thread to help my channel grow, joining my Telegram channel here: t.me/PlayfraOSINT and checking out my Ukraine control map here: google.com/maps/d/u/1/vie…
Have a great rest of the day/night! 🫡

8/🧵

(eng) Dear viewers, if you are currently fighting or are near the front line, it would be great if you could write to me personally and express your opinion on the situation and relevant topics. Your opinion is extremely important to me!
Telegram: @Playfra
Discord: playfra

(ру) Дорогие зрители, если вы сейчас воюете или находитесь недалеко от линии фронта, было бы здорово, если бы вы могли написать мне лично и высказать свое мнение о ситуации и соответствующих темах. Ваше мнение крайне важно для меня! Telegram: @Playfra
Discord: playfra

(укр) Дорогі глядачі, якщо ви зараз воюєте або знаходитесь недалеко від лінії фронту, було б чудово, якби ви могли написати мені особисто і висловити свою думку про ситуацію та відповідні теми. Ваша думка вкрай важлива для мене!
Telegram: @Playfra
Discord: playfra

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More from @Playfra0

Playfra

@Playfra0

Oct 17

https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1978043152389800240

1/🧵Uspenivka sector, Pokrovske front, according to information from the field. Short update thread.

In the last few days, the situation, finally, significantly improved for Ukrainian forces after the transfer of the reinforcements I talked about here ().

🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️

https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1978043152389800240

2/🧵

After a period of generally large successes in this sector, in the last days Russian forces have been suffering a lot in wounded and dead servicemen, and, while further north near Vyshneve fast advancements are still recorded, they factually didn't advance by a meter near Uspenivka in recent days (the orange polygon you see is a correction, and DeepState updates are being published with a delay and generally diminish Russian gains here).

3/🧵

Until now, the Russians advanced well to Uspenivka, effectively exploiting the very well-built Ukrainian trenches (that were simply abandoned by Ukraine) to accumulate their own manpower and transfer it without Ukrainian FPV threat. Once they reached the Yanchur river, it was imperative for them to force it immediately to exploit an almost complete lack of any Ukrainian organized defense effort, but to do this it was essential to secure the farm at 47.770945, 36.454224 (east of Novomykolaivka), and the small part of Novomykolaivka located east of the Yanchur river (1 single line of houses) at 47.771161, 36.447422.

Read 8 tweets

Playfra

@Playfra0

Sep 15

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Day 1300, comprehensive frontline and rear situation report: territorial changes, trends, strategies and objectives of both sides, fortifications.

🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️

2/🧵

Zaporizhzhia Oblast', Stepnohirsk sector.

Russian forces continue offensive operations in the sector, despite generally low media coverage.
The Russians gather up in Plavni's center to move through the gray zone to northern Plavni, and accumulate there. After this, they try to move into southern Prymorske, but are eliminated in the accumulation phase or cleared out by frequent Ukrainian infantry raids.

The Russians also often try to move through the kill zone in the fields north of Kamyanske, but the area is open enough for Ukrainian drone operators to control well and eliminate any movement, causing high casualties to the Russians.

Further northeast, the Russians constantly attempt to move into the 3rd microdistrict. This is because the district is composed of still mostly intact high rise buildings, that can be used for a safer accumulation for further assault operations.
From the 3rd microdistrict, the Russians seem to prefer attacking Ahrarna St. in southern Stepnohirsk.
Because of this predictability, the Ukrainians are zeroed in and constantly counterattack with all fire methods available.

Because of little successes evidenced after trying to take Stepnohirsk head-on, the Russians are slowly shifting their attention eastwards. An accumulation is recorded northeast of Kamyanske in the indicated area.

In general, the Ukrainians seem to be effectively holding the borders, combining fire damage with active defense, and achieving a favorable ratio of casualties with the Russian side. Russian successes here, at the moment, are not significant in any way.

White = trenches
Yellow = ditches
Blue = dragon's teeth
Gray = barbed wire

3/🧵

Zaporizhzhia Oblast', Pokrovske - Huljajpole direction.

In the Uspenivka sector, Russian forces are advancing through vast rural areas. The Ukrainians can do little to nothing to counter this because of the almost total lack of manpower in this particular direction, that has not seen activity since 2022, and from which many units were transferred to other areas deemed more critical.
The trenches you see in this direction are either empty, because of the critical lack of men to man them, or unused, because they are outdated relative to drone warfare, as they are situated in the middle of fields and uncovered.
At the moment, fighting is ongoing for Olhivske, and Russian forces came close to Novoivanivka, for which fighting will likely soon start.

A bit north, after the capture of Zaporizke without much resistance, the village of Novomykolaivka was captured soon after. Russian forces are expected to continue along this small valley to Kalynivske, which suffered heavy FAB bombardments last week.

Near fortified Berezove, Russian forces decided to bypass both this village and Ternove, seemingly after encountering resistance, and advanced significantly between the 2 villages in the treelines.
This forced the Ukrainians to retreat from Ternove, for which fighting is ongoing, in favor of some outdated fortifications just north of it, which, as said multiple times, provide only an extremely small advantage.

Read 9 tweets

Playfra

@Playfra0

Sep 10

Lyman and the 3rd battle for the city at 5km on the horizon.
Russian 🇷🇺 plans, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 defenses, logistics, and what's next.

🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️

2/🧵

Lyman is a medium-sized town located in the northern corner of Donetsk Oblast' and counted about 20,000 inhabitants in 2022.
Immediately after the start of the invasion, while the Russians were able to advance with almost no resistance in Luhansk and eastern Kharkiv Oblasts, they encountered very strong resistance in Donetsk Oblast' along strong and prepared defensive lines, reinforced for 8 years since 2014.
Nonetheless, after being pushed out of northern Ukraine and having scaled down their plans to capture Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, the Russians immediately recognized the importance of precisely 2 cities to reach their goals: the cities of Lyman and Izyum.
Control over these two cities allowed the Russians to pose an extremely serious threat to Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, the two "capitals" of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, from the northeast and northwest.
Old "panic fortifications" built facing westwards from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk can still be easily found to this day, proving this strong problem that the Ukrainians faced.

3/🧵

In August 2022, in fact, the Ukrainians started a small scale "preparation"counteroffensive south of Izyum, with the likely aim of pushing the Russians back to the Siversky Donets river, to strenghten Donbas' northern flank.
Just a month later, the successful September 2022 counteroffensive started exactly in this general sector, with the aim of reaching the Oskil river to finally secure the Donbas, understanding that a frontal attack was already impossible at this time and that the flanks were their only vulnerability.
Izyum city was recaptured on September 12th with almost no Russian resistance, and Lyman on October 1st, with the Russians retreating disorganizedly and with losses under threat of encirclement to Zarichne.

Read 14 tweets

Playfra

@Playfra0

Sep 2

Legendary Kreminna forest and the 16,500 trenches inside: the most precise public mapping ever made of this battlefield.

Interactive map:

🧵Gallery thread🧵1/⬇️ google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…

2/🧵

Summing everything, in total the project took about 2 weeks of mapping, or about 30 hours if I hadn't stopped (haven't counted exactly, that's an estimate).

In the project is included just about everything:
- Trenches visible from updated satellite imagery ESRI
- World War 2 trenches and emplacements
- Singular foxholes
- Invisible trench systems under foliage, only visible through Planet imagery
- Dragon's teeth obstacles

The covered area goes from the village of Torske to Kreminna, totaling 175 km².

3/🧵

This thread won't really be a standard one, but rather some sort of "gallery" with photos and descriptions of different kinds of interesting things I found in the forest and the trenches dug in it.

Read 15 tweets

Playfra

@Playfra0

Aug 11

The Zolotyi Kolodyaz catastrophe. For whoever is asking "what the hell", "why" and "how".

🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️

2/🧵

This thread will be more raw than the others. No sugarcoating, 101% objectivity.

As discussed in my previous thread, there are multiple reasons for this breakthrough, the main of which are:
- completely inadequate command
- sheer amount of Russian resources that were committed
- Ukrainian disorganization
- New Russian mobile groups that simply bypass scattered Ukrainian resistance points.

This breakthrough was NOT opened because of 1 reason in particular, but all of them.

3/🧵

The main tactic of the Russians in this direction is almost completely based on infantry, very likely with motorized "attachments" like bikes and motorcycles. No mechanized component was noticed.
At the moment, according to my information, the breakthrough is packed full of Russian foot infantry, who are accumulating, we can easily guess, without any type of Ukrainian resistance, and then, with the same amount of resistance, simply walking or having a motorcycle ride to new positions further north.

Read 13 tweets

Playfra

@Playfra0

Aug 10

At Zolotyi Kolodyaz', Russia 🇷🇺 had first contact with Ukraine 🇺🇦's New Donbas Line, and its DRGs broke through it for the first time, with the Ukrainians suffering from catastrophic manpower shortages.
In the long term, this might endanger all of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.

A damage assessment and technical strategical overview of the situation.

🧵Thread🧵 1/⬇️

2/🧵

The story starts on July 21th, when, according to DeepState, Russian DRGs were recorded east of Nove Shakhove.
Everything has been kept quiet since then, with neither side releasing any information whatsoever, and with my sources, too, fully respecting operational silence.
Despite this, in the "dark", the Russians kept creeping forward and continued to send more and more DRGs deeper, eventually rendering the situation similar to what we have in Pokrovsk, where Russian DRGs are constantly recorded and destroyed even in the center of the city. Progressively, the breakthrough was expanded on all sides.
As of the evening of August 6th, local channels finally reported shooting battles in Zolotyi Kolodyaz, 7km from the last known Russian position.

3/🧵

Let's break down the confusion on what exactly causes these breakthroughs. I identified 4 reasons:

1. Catastrophic manpower shortage in the Ukrainian ranks in this sector, initiating a loop of disorganized retreat ---> Russian breakthroughs ---> lengthening of the front ---> manpower shortage ---> disorganized retreat.
In this specific case we can name Koptieve, settlement from which the Ukrainians retreated in terrible order in mid-June. From there, the Russians exploited a hole that formed in Razine behind the Kazenyi Torets river, and continued without much resistance all the way until the doors of Rodynske, where at the time of writing they have been effectively stopped.

Read 16 tweets

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