All along the front, the #Ukrainians 🇺🇦 are fighting the #Russians 🇷🇺 for the initiative and are conducting small tactical counterattacks, buying crucial time to reinforce defensive positions in the rear that #Russia 🇷🇺 can't afford to give #Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Stay with me in this thread while I analyze which new defensive lines were built and which reinforced, from #ChasivYar to #Zaporizhzhia.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
2/🧵
Lately, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been launching many small counteroffensives all along the front and has been successfully repelling #Russia 🇷🇺's attacks, with February being the month of least #Russian territorial gains since summer 2024.
It is though important to correctly interpret the objectives of these small counterattacks and debunk common beliefs of an incoming big counteroffensive. The objectives are: 1. Buying time 2. Tactical position improvement 3. Questioning Russian initiative
3/🧵
As said, the crucial time bought by these localized counterattacks is being put to use by reinforcing defensive positions in the rear. Let's start analyzing this process more in-depth with #ChasivYar.
Trenches:
- No visible changes.
Anti-tank ditches:
- New line north-east of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended the two already existing lines east of the city.
- New line between the city and Ivanopillya.
- New line south-west of Kostyantynivka.
Dragon's teeth:
- New line crossing the railway at the northern exit of Chasiv Yar.
- 3 new lines at the eastern entrance of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended line at Bila Hora.
- New lines and extensions south of Kostyantynivka and Ivanopillya in correlation with the worsening of the situation in Toretsk at the start of February.
Barbed wire:
- Extended line east of Kostyantynivka.
- New lines east of Ivanopillya.
4/🧵
Moving on to the one everyone was waiting for, #Pokrovsk.
Trenches:
- New (likely Slovyanka-style) trench systems belonging to the new Prosiana line.
- Some more systems belonging to the Mezhova - Slovyanka line were dug.
- 3 new trench systems at the north-eastern entrance to Novopavlivka.
- Many new trenches along the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road and behind the Hryshynka river.
Anti-tank ditches:
- New ditches dug around Havrylivka belonging to the Prosiana line.
- Extended ditch south of Novopavlivka.
- New ditch at the north-eastern entrance of Novopavlivka.
- Slightly extended ditch west of Muravka.
- Significantly extended ditch north of Slovyanka.
- New ditch south-east of Andronivka.
- 3 new ditches dug along the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road.
- Extended existing ditches along the same road.
- New ditches behind the Hryshynka river belonging to the homonymous line.
- New ditches south of Shevchenko.
- New ditches west of Shevchenko just south of the Vodyana river.
- New small ditch north of Rodynske.
- Extended ditch east of the railway east of Rodynske.
- Extended ditch north of Myrnohrad.
- Slightly extended ditch north-east of Dobropillia.
- Significantly extended ditch south of the Bychok river.
- 2 new long ditches dug west of Kostyantynivka north of the same river.
- New ditch north-west of Kostyantynivka.
- New ditch south-west of Kostyantynivka.
Dragon's teeth:
- New very long line around Prosiana and east of Havrylivka belonging to the Prosiana line.
- New line north-east of Novopavlivka.
- New lines west and east of Muravka.
- Many new lines between Novopidhorodne and Serhiivka.
- New line north-west of Serhiivka near the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road.
- New lines east of Myrnohrad.
- 2 new lines north-east of Dobropillia.
- 3 new lines north of the Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka road.
Barbed wire:
- New very long line around Prosiana belonging to the Prosiana line.
- Komar - Bahatyr line in process of completion.
- New line south of Sribne.
- New lines all around Troiitske.
- New lines west of Nadiivka/Nadezhdynka.
- New line south-east of Muravka.
- New significant line guarding the western entrance to Pokrovsk.
- New lines defending the tips of the treelines north of the Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad road.
5/🧵
And now for the Zaporizhzhia direction, which is getting more significant by the day because of the worsening situation at Velyka Novosilka.
Trenches:
- New trench system south-east of Zaporizhzhia city.
- New trench systems (likely Slovyanka-style) north-east of Uspenivka.
6/🧵
In conclusion, #Ukraine 🇺🇦's increased use of barbed wire all along the front is noticeable, with time spent without #Russian 🇷🇺 attacks often translated into reinforcement of existing frontline positions. It was also possible to observe a general speeding up of the fortification placement process, and I think the pace will continue to increase in the coming weeks and months.
7/🧵
The most active direction was by far #Pokrovsk, where #Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces, as said, are using to the maximum extend their "free time" to reinforce positions in the rear.
As always, I really want to re-iterate that fortifications are not the only thing one should analyze when drawing one's own conclusions. Above all, command reforms are needed, and in some specific directions manpower issues are still very well present. Fortifications are complementary to a military that functions efficiently.
7/🧵
Thanks for reading this thread! I would've really liked to make it longer, but as you've seen from my posting frequency, I'm under bad time constraints because of my studies.
Still, if you liked it, please consider following me, reposting this thread to help my channel grow, joining my Telegram channel here: t.me/PlayfraOSINT and checking out my Ukraine control map here: google.com/maps/d/u/1/vie…
Have a great rest of the day/night! 🫡
8/🧵
(eng) Dear viewers, if you are currently fighting or are near the front line, it would be great if you could write to me personally and express your opinion on the situation and relevant topics. Your opinion is extremely important to me!
Telegram: @Playfra
Discord: playfra
(ру) Дорогие зрители, если вы сейчас воюете или находитесь недалеко от линии фронта, было бы здорово, если бы вы могли написать мне лично и высказать свое мнение о ситуации и соответствующих темах. Ваше мнение крайне важно для меня! Telegram: @Playfra
Discord: playfra
(укр) Дорогі глядачі, якщо ви зараз воюєте або знаходитесь недалеко від лінії фронту, було б чудово, якби ви могли написати мені особисто і висловити свою думку про ситуацію та відповідні теми. Ваша думка вкрай важлива для мене!
Telegram: @Playfra
Discord: playfra
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
On the #Pokrovsk front, #Russia 🇷🇺 can't keep up the pressure anymore and was forced to downscale its offensive efforts.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦 is exploiting this by counter-attacking in many places along this sector, while fortifications are being strongly reinforced with a novelty: the great use of barbed wire.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
2/🧵
Dachne - Andriivka
This is the most difficult part of the whole Pokrovsk front for the Ukrainians.
Russian forces pressure Kostyantynopil constantly, but are always repelled. Without changes.
Zelenivka, south of Ulakly, reportedly changed hands twice today. In the morning, the Russians captured the village, but a Ukrainian counterattack was able to clear part of the village in the afternoon. The destruction of 2 Russian tanks and 3 MTLBs is reported. Russian forces are also attacking east of Zelenivka on the opposite bank of the Sukhyi Yali river; extremely harsh fighting is still ongoing.
In Dachne, the Ukrainians still control the south-westernmost corner of the town. Nonetheless, the Russians started accumulating infantry in the center for further assaults on the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village and around it. Fighting continues.
The most difficult situation is Andriivka, which some sources give as practically captured. Here the Russians consolidated and secured last week's gains and continue wedging themselves in the town. At the moment, they're trying to fully secure positions on the western buildings of the town. The northern part is still controlled by Ukraine, but north of that, the Russians entered a trench system located on the dominant hill overlooking Andriivka itself, which endangers every Ukrainian position south of it.
The Ukrainians will have to retreat in the very near future from Dachne and nearby positions to Ulakly to avoid encirclement, as Kostyantynopil is already being attacked from both sides. After, the Ukrainians will fall back to the line Kostyantynopil - Rozlyv, before falling back again to the more solid Oleksiivka - Bahatyr - Komar line, where they're expected to hold out for some time.
3/🧵
Sribne - Nadezhdynka (Nadiivka)
The Russians are clearing the last buildings in the northern part of Sribne and are constantly attacking Zaporizhzhia. After capturing the central part of the town, they moved fighting to the western part, where it is still ongoing.
Russian forces are trying to recapture lost ground after a localized Ukrainian counter-attack in the forests south of Nadezhdynka, while also trying to capture a treeline that approaches Preobrazhenka from the north, threatening Ukrainian positions in Zaporizhzhia.
In picture #2, the next suitable lines of defense.
The #Russians continue attacking #Andriyivka and have successes on occasionally gaining a small foothold on the easternmost houses of the town. Fighting is going on for a vital chain of strongholds on a dominant.
The #Russians entered #Nadiyivka/#Nadezhdynka and the orchards and forests south of the settlement, likely with the aim of creating a pincer on #Sribne and #Zaporizhzhia.
3/🧵
The #Russians captured the ventilation shaft of the "Pokrovs'ke" mines and moved west from it. They also advanced in #Kotlyne and entered the "#Kovalykha" farm and bypassed it from the north. The first trench systems belonging to the outer #Pokrovsk ring were also captured.
The #Russians break through near #Udachne and #Kotlyne at the railway and start fighting for the mines, but the #Ukrainians still have a strong line after. This thread will be on the still urgent and critical #Russian breakthrough in the area.
2/🧵
Recently, the #Russians captured both of the treelines on the railway line's sides between #Udachne and #Kotlyne, crucial defense hubs, and are fighting for the key mines just behind the railway, which normally constitute formidable obstacles
3/🧵
As of now, the #Russians entered mine VPS-1 (#Udachne) and control the south-eastern part of mine N°2 (#Kotlyne). The railway between the two settlements is also in #Russian hands, while mine Donets'kstal'-M3, N°1 and their ventilation shafts are under #Ukrainian control.
The #Russians are advancing, but the #Ukrainians have not been idle in the rear.
This thread will be a mix of analyses about what #Ukraine has dug this winter and about how this correlates with the current tactical-strategical situation at the front. Happy reading!
2/🧵
This thread will be organized as follows:
we will move from the #Zaporhzhzhia front to the #Kurakhove one, then #Pokrovsk, #Toretsk and finally #ChasivYar. I will also say a few words about other less active fronts in terms of digging.
3/🧵
Let's start.
The Zaporizhzhia front's defense counts on two main strongholds: #Orikhiv and #Hulyaypole. The #Ukrainians started digging long ago in front and behind these two crucial cities, which now gives us two well-built defensive lines to look at.
Under attack for more than 8 months and still standing, this thread will explore its strengths and weaknesses, what makes up the city's defense, what the current situation is, and what will happen next and after the fall of the city.
2/🧵
Chasiv Yar is a medium-sized town with ~12,000 pre-war population (about half of Selydove's). Where the city makes up, though, is in surface area: ~20.000 km² (double Selydove's). The city is also divided in 11 districts.
3/🧵
Chasiv Yar is cut by the famous Sivers'kyy Donets' - Donbas canal between the Kanal and the Zhovtnevyy & Novyy districts. North and south of the town are two big forests and 5 mines. At the town center is the refractory plant, near which is a multi-story district.
Critical situation south of Pokrovs'k: Shevchenko under serious threat.
As the Russians continue exploiting the Zhovte gap in the Ukrainian lines, the vital town of Shevchenko and the Solonyi river seem increasingly in reach of the Russians. Let's analyze the situation.
2/🧵
After Selydove's fall, the Russians have seemingly found a weak spot in the Ukrainian lines behind the city, advancing much more easily and consistently. After capturing Vyshneve, Petrivka and Hryhorivka, they're now fighting for Zhovte and are now at Shevchenko's doorstep.
3/🧵
The Russians' main goal here is three: force the Solona river (1.7km left), cut the T-05-15 Shevchenko-Andriivka road (4.3km left for fire control, 4.9km for physical control), and capture Udachne's coking coal/steel mine (13.4 km left), vital for steel production.