🇺🇸🇪🇺🌎The transatlantic alliance faces an uncomfortable truth: the instability in U.S. politics isn't just about Trump. It’s about the deeper flaws in American democracy itself—flaws that make the U.S. an unreliable pillar of Western security.
🧵A security thread.
1/10
Trump—a convicted fraudster, rapist, and insurrectionist—isn’t an outlier. The fact that he can win power again is a symptom of systemic weakness.
In any functioning democracy, such a figure would be politically extinct.
In the U.S., he was the GOPs first choice.
2/10
How did we get here? Its complicated but two core flaws make American democracy structurally unstable:
1️⃣ Money in politics—Citizens United allows billionaires to buy elections.
2️⃣ Electoral system design—A few swing states decide everything, making it easy to manipulate outcomes
Unlike in Europe (at least my country), where politicians resign over minor infractions, the U.S. system enables criminals to return to power.
When legal accountability means nothing, when money outweighs votes, when courts are stacked—how democratic is the U.S., really?
4/11
This isn’t just about domestic politics. If the U.S. can’t guarantee stable governance, how can Europe, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, or Japan trust it with their security?
5/11
NATO’s backbone has always been U.S. leadership. But when that leadership can swing between Biden’s internationalism and Trump’s isolationism—on a whim—the alliance itself is on borrowed time.
6/11
Europe must wake up. The old assumption—that the U.S. will always be there as a security guarantor—is dead.
A country that can be hijacked by extremists every four years is no foundation for defense and security.
7/11
The solution? The West must build an independent security framework.
✅ Europe must expand its defense capacity.
✅ Canada, Australia, Taiwan and Japan must coordinate more closely.
✅ NATO must prepare for a world where U.S. support is conditional—or absent.
8/11
This is not an anti-American argument. It’s about recognizing reality. The U.S. remains a vital partner, but the era of blind dependence is over.
The West needs a backup plan—before it’s too late.
9/11
The biggest threat to the Western alliance isn’t just Russia or China.
It’s the fragility of U.S. democracy itself.
If we don’t prepare for a post-American security order now, we may not get a second chance.
10/11
☕️ If you appreciate this thread, consider supporting my work: .
Your support keeps these insights coming.
Thank you! 🙏
🇬🇪Georgia is sliding into a legal dictatorship. Not overnight. Step by step. Each protest is met with a new tailored law.
Each law designed to exhaust, criminalize, and isolate society until resistance itself becomes illegal.
Here is how the latest law changes everything.
1/11
Step one: the so-called “Russian law.” Sold as transparency. In reality, a stigma law targeting civil society and media. Georgians protested in massive numbers. The government learned protest alone would not stop it.
2/11
Step two: halting EU accession talks. A strategic break with Europe, framed as “sovereignty.”
Georgians protested again. The message from society was clear: Europe is the choice, not isolation.
3/11
🇬🇪Georgian Dream is Europe’s most un-democratic and human rights-violating force currently in power.
Today, they announced new amendments to the "Law on Grants" that criminalize receiving foreign support, restrict political participation, and outlaw core democratic activity
1/12
Georgian Dream is doing this for one simple reason: it works. Every previous authoritarian law has been met only with Western “concern,” “worry,” and polite “urges to reconsider.”
No consequences. No costs.
GD feel absolute power and they use it to crush all opposition.
2/12
They can do it because EU and US politicians are not reacting. Silence has become permission. Each non-response signals that the next anti democratic escalation will also be met with no reactions.
3/12 civil.ge/archives/719193
🇬🇪Georgia and Georgian Dream is emerging as a key enabler of Russia’s sanctioned shadow fleet.
New reporting by Finland’s YLE reveals how Georgia-registered companies are keeping Russian oil tankers operational despite EU sanctions.
1/11
At the center is Arnika Trade LLC, a company registered in Tbilisi, identified as a key intermediary supplying spare parts for Finnish Wärtsilä engines used on Russian tankers under sanctions.
2/11
These are not old contracts or accidental spillovers.
The reporting documents systematic deliveries from 2023–2025, routed via third countries specifically to evade EU and Western export controls.
3/11
🇬🇪🇮🇷Georgia is strategically very important to the Iranian regime.
Not marginal. Not incidental.
Under Georgian Dream, Georgia has become a country Iran actively relies on to move money, goods, and political influence.
1/11
That importance did not emerge by accident. It grew as Georgian Dream steadily lowered political, diplomatic, and economic barriers between Tbilisi and Tehran, even as Iran faced deeper international isolation.
2/11
In 2024 alone, Georgia’s prime minister @PM_Kobakhidze made two official visits to Iran. These were not routine diplomatic exchanges. They occurred at moments when most Western-aligned governments were deliberately keeping distance.
3/11
🇬🇪Georgia is no longer a democracy.
This is not “backsliding” or “under strain”.
It is an authoritarian system where power is, right now, being engineered to never change hands.
Calling it anything else is denial.
1/11
📷Maurizio Orlando / Hans Lucas
Georgian Dream didn’t stumble into this.
They built it.
🔹Law by law
🔹Fine by fine
🔹Ban by ban
Repression that looks legal still counts as repression.
2/11 terjehelland1.substack.com/p/georgia-has-…
This includes the systematic party takeover of the state itself.
🔹Courts
🔹Prosecutors
🔹Regulators
🔹Electoral bodies
🔹Oversight institutions
Once captured, these bodies stop restraining power and start enforcing it.
3/11
🇮🇷🇬🇪Over the past two years, Georgia’s ruling party Georgian Dream has quietly deepened ties with Iran. Not rhetorically. Practically. Through trade, business access, and political signaling that matters far more than speeches.
1/9
While Iran faces heavy international sanctions, Georgia has emerged as a low-friction gateway: company registrations, banking access, logistics, and regional transit. This is not accidental. It is policy enabled by political choice. 2/9
Thousands of Iranian-linked businesses are now registered in Georgia. Trade volumes are up. Air links operate. Financial and commercial channels remain unusually permissive for a country formally aligned with the West. 3/9