Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine

In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospects

2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts.

3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories

4/ Through simple calculations, as demonstrated in the image, we determined the total number of desertion and AWOL cases in the Southern Military District, arriving at a figure of 22,577 cases.

5/ After applying the same method to each district, we arrived at a total of 50,554 documented AWOL cases across all military districts. While this number is not exhaustive, desertion rates among naval/air force specialists are low enough to be considered insignificant overall

6/ According to the US ARI report What We Know About AWOL and Desertion (Ramsberger & Bell, 2002), the desertion rate in the US Army during the Vietnam war period 1968-1971 averaged ~ 5%. This rate, comparable to current desertion levels in Russia, does not indicate a collapse

7/ Our team estimates that Ukrainian military AWOL rates are higher than Russia's, with the caveat that many Ukrainian soldiers went AWOL to join preferred ones rather than waiting for official transfers. Additionally, some deserters returned through the amnesty program

8/ To determine the loss ratio, we employed a slightly different method. Rather than combining regular KIA, MIA, and WIA numbers, we focused on KIA, MIA, heavily wounded, and desertions. This helped us to mitigate the inflated numbers caused by medium and light injuries

9/ When factoring in KIA, heavily wounded(disabled), MIA, and deserters, the total number of permanently lost personnel is estimated at approximately 560,000 for Russia and 300,000 for Ukraine. This results in an approximate loss ratio of 1:1.87 for irreversible manpower losses.

10/ While these numbers may seem favorable for Ukraine, it suffers from smaller mobilization base and weaker mobilization. Russia, with a population at least three times larger and a more effective recruitment system, should ideally suffer from a loss ratio closer to 1:3

11/ Russia holds a clear advantage in sustaining force generation. Even under the most conservative recruitment estimates and optimistic casualty figures, Russia is able to maintain its force generation over time - not only to gradually replace losses but also to form new units

12/ From a strictly manpower and force generation perspective, our team has a negative outlook for Ukraine, unless a significant factor would influence recruitment or shift the casualty ratio to 1:3. Political and economic factors are beyond the scope of this trend prediction.

13/ In general, when both sides in a war face growing AWOL rates, it signals growing exhaustion. In such situations, neither side is likely to achieve a decisive victory nor suffer a total collapse in a near term, unless a significant balance shift happens

Thank you for reading. This is a short version, and the full report, with more details and files containing AWOL cases, is available on our website (link below). We encourage you to follow us and consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our project

frontelligence.substack.com/p/desertions-a…