Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Mar 5 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll discuss the Russian shadow fleet: a network of ships that operate in secret, dodge sanctions, smuggle oil, and undermine the security of Europe’s seas while keeping Putin’s war machine running.

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To understand the shadow fleet, let’s rewind to 2022. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the West responded with economic shockwaves. Sanctions were imposed, Russian oil was banned, and a price cap was introduced. For Russia, this was a disaster.

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But Putin is well-familiar with economic warfare. Russia quickly created a “shadow fleet” – an armada of rusting oil tankers with false identities and forged paperwork,and illegal trade routes designed to dodge Western sanctions and keep the rubles flowing.

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These ships are registered under shady “flags of convenience” from countries like Panama, Liberia, or even completely fabricated registries. Ownership is hidden behind endless layers of shell companies. If a ship gets caught, good luck figuring out who actually owns it.

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The moment these ships enter sensitive waters (like the Baltic Sea), they switch off their AIS transponders, going “dark” on satellite tracking. This allows them to slip past authorities unnoticed, only to reappear days later in a friendly port.

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Instead of docking at a major port where they can be tracked, Russian oil tankers sometimes transfer their cargo in international waters, much like drug smugglers. By the time the oil reaches its final buyer, its origins have been scrubbed clean.

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The scale of this operation is staggering. Some estimates suggest that Russia has over 600 ships in their fleet, many of which should’ve been scrapped years ago. This naval black market keeps billions flowing into Russia’s economy, directly funding the war on Ukraine.

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Russia has a long history of using civilian ships for intelligence gathering. Some of these tankers may not even be carrying oil – they could be mapping undersea cables, tracking NATO maneuvers, or scouting critical infrastructure for future sabotage.

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Another rusting Russian tanker with 100,000 tons of sanctioned oil recently faced a power outage in the Baltic Sea and had to be towed to the coast by Germany. It *would* be embarrassing – if Russia was familiar at all with that feeling.

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In Feb 2025, the oil tanker Koala suffered explosions in its engine room while docked in Ust-Luga, Russia. The vessel was carrying 130,000 tons of fuel oil, but according to Russian officials, no spills were detected.

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Incidents like this happen all the time, and the shadow fleet is an ecological catastrophe waiting to happen. But Russia can always shift the blame on others – for example, Koala was sailing under the flag of Antigua and Barbuda.

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On a more optimistic note, many Western allies see the threat and are countering it. In January, the Joint Expeditionary Force launched an artificial intelligence-based reaction system for monitoring the threats that the shadow fleet poses for underwater cables.

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In addition, Baltic NATO members have increased naval patrols to monitor suspicious ship movements. The alliance is also reinforcing undersea infrastructure security, ensuring that Russia cannot use the cover of these vessels to sabotage critical infrastructure.

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For the Baltics, this is a matter of national security, so naturally, they are pushing NATO for a stronger maritime presence in the region. Estonians have been vocal about treating the shadow fleet as a military problem, not just an economic one.

And they’re right.

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To conclude, the Russian shadow fleet must be stopped. It threatens critical infrastructure and ocean ecology, while its trade profits directly fund Russia’s war on Ukraine. This requires imposing new sanctions and strictly enforcing existing ones.

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The 2nd edition of “Vatnik Soup — The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation” is officially out!

You can order your copy here:

kleart.eu/webshop/p/vatn…

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Mar 14
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Serbian academic, Ratko Ristić. He’s best known for engaging in pro-Kremlin, ultranationalist politics and propaganda while undermining business ties between Serbia and the EU.

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Serbia, along with Belarus, remains Russia’s staunchest European ally amid its aggression against Ukraine. Not only have they refused to impose sanctions, but Serbia has also become a regional disinformation hub, destabilizing the wider region.

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Beyond foreign malign influence, Serbia’s nationalist-revisionist regime – rooted in the 1990s – has aligned with Russia’s aggressive, anti-liberal nationalist bloc. Serbian far-right groups are also well-known supporters of Russian imperialism.

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Read 20 tweets
Mar 8
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce Oleg Bessedin, a videoblogger and Russia’s favorite mouthpiece in Estonia. Through social media, online groups, and media networks, Bessedin has played an active role in pushing pro-Kremlin narratives to divide Estonian society.

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Oleg is a content creator and businessman with strong ties to pro-Kremlin networks. He runs multiple Facebook groups and media platforms that regularly share Russian state propaganda. Estonia’s Internal Security Service (KAPO) has flagged his platforms as disinfo hubs.

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Bessedin presents himself as an independent journalist, but his content is heavily biased in favor of Russian narratives. He portrays Estonia and the West as corrupt, aggressive, and anti-Russian while defending Russia’s actions on the world stage.

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Read 14 tweets
Feb 28
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll re-introduce the American-British social media personalities, Tristan and Andrew Tate (@tatethetalisman and @cobratate).

They’re best-known for their social media grifts and allegations of human trafficking and rape.

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The history of the Tate brothers was introduced thoroughly in my original Vatnik Soup thread, but since then so much has happened that this pathetic duo needs another review. The soup will go through a lot of the evidence and videos in which the Tates incriminate themselves.
2/22
The Tates became (relatively) rich through their webcam (pimping?) businesses and self-help courses targeted at young, desperate (incel?) men. At some point, they had up to 75 women working for them, and the brothers later admitted that the business was a “total scam”.

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Read 23 tweets
Feb 24
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce Russia’s main narratives and explain how they are being spread online by Russian operatives and MAGA Republicans. After three years of war, Russia still relies on old narratives, now amplified by the Trump administration.

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Throughout the years – or even decades – Russia’s narratives against the West have remained largely the same. Many of them date back to the Cold War era, when the KGB and CIA were bitter enemies. But since then, the media landscape has drastically changed.

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Russian propaganda and disinformation revolves around four main themes:

1) Russia is the victim,
2) Historical revisionism,
3) The “decadent West” is collapsing,
4) The CIA and/or “evil Anglo-Saxons” are behind every revolution & anti-Kremlin activity.

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Read 26 tweets
Feb 22
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a former Ukrainian politician and president, Viktor Yanukovych. He’s best known for selling his country to Russia, trying to turn it into an authoritarian state, and eventually fleeing to Moscow once his plan failed.

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Now that Russia and the US are planning to replace president Zelenskyy with someone who’s more willing to sell the country to them (most probably Viktor Medvedchuk or one of his cronies), it’s a good time to remind people how Yanukovych and Putin almost took over Ukraine.

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Yanukovych’s first attempt at power came in 2004, when he “won” the Ukrainian presidential election through massive fraud. The rigged vote sparked the Orange Revolution, a wave of protests that forced the election to be re-run. His opponent, pro-Western candidate…

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Read 23 tweets
Feb 20
Russia uses Tucker Carlson as a vessel for its propaganda. Many of the most popular narratives originate from his misinformation-filled show, which is funded by Elon. Some of these lies include:

- Bioweapons labs
- Gonzalo Lira being a "journalist"
-Zelenskyy being a dictator
- The banning of the Russian Orthodox Church
- The banning of Viktor Medvedchuk's pro-Kremlin propaganda network
- Putin's interview and revisionism
- That ridiculous St. Petersburg propaganda piece

Bob Amsterdam, who Tucker has interviewed a few times is paid by a Russian oligarch, Vadym Novynskyi.

We now know from the Tenet Media case that Russian state media wants to spread Tucker's verbal diarrhea everywhere. These fake stories have finally made their way to Trump.Image
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Read 4 tweets

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