Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 6 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Rubio: Ukraine is a proxy war, and we asked Ukraine not to sabotage diplomacy. Zelensky tried to undermine Trump. Russia is ready to talk - Ukraine wasn’t. That changed when the U.S. applied pressure.

1/
Rubio: Zelensky challenged Trump’s push for diplomacy, undermining the plan. That led to the dustup.

Now, there’s a shift. Both sides need to make concessions. Ukraine and Russia must come to the table. Only Trump can make that happen. 2/
Rubio: We asked Russia - are you interested in ending the war. Because there can’t be a change in our relationship if the war doesn’t stop. They said yes.

But Ukraine signaled no interest in peace. Hopefully, that’s changed. Now, we’ll see if a deal is possible. 3/
Rubio: Trump wants to be a peacemaker. Ending wars should be a good thing.

But when Trump pushes for peace, somehow it’s a problem.

This war has cost billions, taken hundreds of thousands of lives, and left destruction that will take generations to fix. 4/
Rubio: No prenegotiations—Ukraine and Russia will have their demands. Diplomacy must bridge the gap.

Every war that ended in a truce took hard diplomacy. This is no different. The question is: will both sides engage? 5/
Rubio: Peace talks only work if both sides engage. Russia won’t be easy, but we need them at the table.

Ukraine resisted talks before—now that’s changed. If true, there’s an opening. Ending this war benefits Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., and our allies. 6/

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 27
Zelenskyy travels to Mar-a-Lago Sunday, willing to cede eastern territory as part of a demilitarized zone, pending Ukrainian voter approval.

Ukraine isn't the obstacle to ending Putin's war — WSJ. 1/ Image
Ukraine opposed giving up territory in Donetsk, where a 31-mile fortified defensive line has slowed Russia. Now both sides could withdraw from current positions.

This is especially significant given Russia violated 2014 and 2015 Minsk cease-fires to prepare for 2022 invasion. 2/
In return, the West would offer security guarantees akin to NATO's Article 5 — an attack on one is an attack on all.

But these guarantees must be explicit, firm, and in the US case approved by Congress. Without Congressional backing, they won't be worth much when Putin tests them. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 27
Sanctions are hitting Russia’s energy sector on two fronts.

Plans to triple LNG output to 100M tons a year have been delayed by several years, while Russia’s flagship Urals crude has plunged to about $34 per barrel, Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Russia planned to triple LNG output to 100M tons per year by 2030, targeting a 20% share of the global market.

Deputy PM Novak said sanctions have pushed this goal back “by some years,” without giving a new deadline. 2/
Western sanctions hit both current and future Russian LNG projects.

The US blacklisted all LNG projects except Yamal LNG and sanctioned the shipping fleet used to export super-chilled fuel. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 27
Trump says there is a good shot at reaching Russia-Ukraine peace deal ahead of Zelenskyy’s visit to Florida, NYPost.

Trump: I think they want to do it now, and that Russia wants to do it. But every time one wants to do it, the other doesn’t. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy will bring a new 20-point peace proposal, a revision of the 28-point framework drafted in Nov by Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner.

It includes a demilitarized zone and a “free economic zone.” The Kremlin says only that dialogue will continue. 2/
“He doesn’t have anything until I approve it. So we’ll see what he’s got,” — Trump to Politico about endorsing Zelenskyy’s plan.

Zelenskyy is ready to consider a referendum on territorial concessions if a ceasefire is secured — Axios. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 26
Trump about Zelenskyy for Politico: “He doesn’t have anything until I approve it. So we’ll see what he’s got.”

Still, he believes he could have a productive meeting this weekend.

“I think it’s going to go good with him. I think it’s going to go good with Putin too.” 1/ Image
Zelenskyy plans to bring a new 20-point peace framework to the meeting in Florida on Sunday.

The proposal includes a demilitarized zone and focuses on US security guarantees, territorial control in Donbas, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. 2/
Trump expects to speak with Putin “soon, as much as I want.”

The comments came a day after Zelenskyy spoke with Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner. Zelenskyy called that a good conversation. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 26
Russia isn’t winning — but Putin wants you to believe it is.

After 4 years of war, Ukraine still stands. Russians failed to take Kyiv and achieve a breakthrough. Putin’s strategy now is to convince the U.S. that Ukraine cannot succeed — Shaheen & McConnell, Washington Post. 1/ Image
In 2022, U.S. intelligence predicted Kyiv would fall within weeks. Instead, Ukraine stopped Russia, pushed it away from Kyiv, and confined Russian forces to the east. Those early predictions were wrong — then and now. 2/
After nearly four years of war, Russia has lost about one-third of its strategic bombers and more than 1 million killed or wounded. Equipment losses remain higher than Ukraine’s, despite Moscow’s full war economy. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Dec 26
Rutte for ARTE: Russia is the next threat and EU is already in danger

Russia spends around 40% of state budget on defense and about 10% of national income on military. It has developed missiles capable of reaching the EU within 5–10 minutes

There is no “safe” Europe anymore 1/
Rutte: Peace is hard to predict because Russia is unpredictable

Security guarantees must ensure that after any peace deal or long-term ceasefire, Ukraine stays strong and Russia cannot attack again

If Russia gains control over Ukraine even 5% defense spending won’t be enough 2/
Rutte on Ukraine’s defense: First, strong Ukrainian armed forces. Second, an EU-led coalition of the willing.

NATO is already deeply involved. We coordinate weapons deliveries, training and lessons learned from the war through NATO–Ukraine structures and coordination hubs. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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