The White House is setting conditions in the information space to justify a land invasion of Canada.
Someone needs to say it. The messaging is undeniable.
Unless the adults reenter the room, it will happen.
1/9
A) Questioning NATO loyalty and if the Alliance would support the US. Wrapped in a tasty sandwich of what if China attacked! That's not the real reason he is questioning the loyalty. Trump wants a coalition of the willing to help isolate Canada.
2/9
B) Calling the US-Canada international border and the treaty that created it "illegitimate." This is straight out of Putin's playbook, and not just in Ukraine.
3/9
C) Attempting to isolate Canada pre-invasion to weaken its economy. Again, this is a tactic Putin used in Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. For now, Moldova is off the table.
4/9
D) Referring to Canada as the 51st state, accusing Canada of refusing to hold elections, implying Treadau is a dictator, and calling the Canadian PM a governor.
These aren't jokes. This is the classic "repeat the lie long enough, it becomes the truth" propaganda.
5/9
E) Increasing US intelligence overflights of Canada in the name of "border security." These are intelligence-gathering missions, not a hunt for undocumented migrants.
6/9
F) The ongoing purge at the Pentagon to replace career officers loyal to the Constitution with sycophants loyal to a man. Every authoritarian regime on the planet has made this a first step in establishing control. Pete Hegseth is the least qualified Secretary of Defense in US history.
7/9
Why does Trump want to annex Canada? It's the same reason Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. Lebensraum and pillage its wealth and resources.
That's silly. Why would the US need the second-largest country on the planet? We have everything we need here!
Why does a country that covers 11 time zones need Ukraine? A country with vast untapped potential and wealth that is wasted due to authoritarianism and corruption.
The US wants bauxite (aluminum), cobalt, oil, natural gas, diamonds, gold, timber, and uranium...
That and 34 million people to work under conditions set by oligarch tech bros as they pillage Canada's sovereign wealth.
8/9
The real danger is most Americans who are reading this will think this is insanity. Why would the US invade Canada? We're practically brothers! A joint identity for almost 200 years.
The United States is now what the conspiracy theorists on both fringes said the US was and blathered that Trump would fix. The US is an unreliable power destroying itself at breakneck speed with imperialistic goals.
There is no political opposition. The only people who can stop this are the American people. I don't have much faith that will happen.
9/9
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Peak fuel use in Russia comes in the third quarter, and the harvest, sowing, and summer travel seasons are here amid a fuel crisis.
The first map is from today. The second map is from 18 June to give you an idea of how fast the shortages are spreading.
1/15
Altai Republic: Fuel sales restrictions have been tightened. Lukoil and Rosneft set a 40-liter limit, and some independent stations have run out of fuel. The region has moved to spot outages.
2/15
Arkhangelsk Oblast: Regional governor confirms that AI-95 fuel hasn't been available in Arkhangelsk and Severodvinsk since 18 June. The region has moved to spot outages.
🧵 Disclaimer: Russia will 100% adapt to Ukraine's mid-range drone strikes. The battle of sword versus shield is timeless.
We've seen some dooming that Russia will soon start shredding Ukraine's logistics in-depth, like Ukraine is doing to Russia.
1/19
Reminder: Russia had already started an increasingly successful mid-range strike campaign in the summer of 2025, which was becoming a serious problem by January 2026. That mostly ended with SpaceX cutting off Starlink Internet access. Russia's been working on a fix for 4 months.
2/19
When Starlink was cut off, Russia's initial reaction was a quick workaround would be found. That didn't happen. Russia was already using Gerbera/Shaheds as repeaters to support mid-range attacks and, before Starlink, had set up mesh networks.
🧵Some of the Russian doom coming from their mappers isn't due to real Ukrainian advances. These are areas that Russia never controlled in the first place.
1/5
Earlier in the year, Russian mappers geolocated 2 guys with a flag, and despite other videos showing them being hit by a drone, artillery, an airstrike, run over by an M113 APC, and then eaten by feral pigs, they still mapped the great victory. Big advance!
2/5
As Russian sources publish their latest "see how good we are at war" videos, the reality is being exposed. Some Russian-based maps are, in a word, delusional. They can't go against the Kremlin unless the claims are ridiculous, such as the capture of Borova.
3/5
🧵Marco Rubio to Fox News: "If you look, the Russians are losing five times as many soldiers a month as the Ukrainians are."
What does the data and research show?
1/20
In our SITREPs, we initially did not publish the casualty figures shared by Kyiv and Moscow.
In December 2024, there were two OPSEC leaks from Russia. One revealed that over 50K Russian soldiers were legally classified as MIA, and the other revealed that 600K former Russian soldiers were permanently disabled.
2/20
That enabled our team to analyze the BBC Russia/Mediazona/Meduza figures against Ukraine's claimed casualty figure, which Kyiv clarified included KIA and WIA.
The math added up. Ukraine's daily casualty figures were very close to the leaked Russian information.
Russia has lost its ability to project hard power across the world because of its almost 12-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine.
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
2/8
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.