The White House is setting conditions in the information space to justify a land invasion of Canada.
Someone needs to say it. The messaging is undeniable.
Unless the adults reenter the room, it will happen.
1/9
A) Questioning NATO loyalty and if the Alliance would support the US. Wrapped in a tasty sandwich of what if China attacked! That's not the real reason he is questioning the loyalty. Trump wants a coalition of the willing to help isolate Canada.
2/9
B) Calling the US-Canada international border and the treaty that created it "illegitimate." This is straight out of Putin's playbook, and not just in Ukraine.
3/9
C) Attempting to isolate Canada pre-invasion to weaken its economy. Again, this is a tactic Putin used in Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. For now, Moldova is off the table.
4/9
D) Referring to Canada as the 51st state, accusing Canada of refusing to hold elections, implying Treadau is a dictator, and calling the Canadian PM a governor.
These aren't jokes. This is the classic "repeat the lie long enough, it becomes the truth" propaganda.
5/9
E) Increasing US intelligence overflights of Canada in the name of "border security." These are intelligence-gathering missions, not a hunt for undocumented migrants.
6/9
F) The ongoing purge at the Pentagon to replace career officers loyal to the Constitution with sycophants loyal to a man. Every authoritarian regime on the planet has made this a first step in establishing control. Pete Hegseth is the least qualified Secretary of Defense in US history.
7/9
Why does Trump want to annex Canada? It's the same reason Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. Lebensraum and pillage its wealth and resources.
That's silly. Why would the US need the second-largest country on the planet? We have everything we need here!
Why does a country that covers 11 time zones need Ukraine? A country with vast untapped potential and wealth that is wasted due to authoritarianism and corruption.
The US wants bauxite (aluminum), cobalt, oil, natural gas, diamonds, gold, timber, and uranium...
That and 34 million people to work under conditions set by oligarch tech bros as they pillage Canada's sovereign wealth.
8/9
The real danger is most Americans who are reading this will think this is insanity. Why would the US invade Canada? We're practically brothers! A joint identity for almost 200 years.
The United States is now what the conspiracy theorists on both fringes said the US was and blathered that Trump would fix. The US is an unreliable power destroying itself at breakneck speed with imperialistic goals.
There is no political opposition. The only people who can stop this are the American people. I don't have much faith that will happen.
9/9
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With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.
This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.
Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.
1/9
It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.
2/9
Tonight represents the sixth time Polish airspace has been violated since 20 August, with a clear pattern of escalation.
The incident, which some U.S. and European officials are openly calling an "act of war," comes less than a month after autocrat Vladimir Putin visited President Donald Trump in Alaska, claiming to seek peace.
3/9
Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.
1/20
Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.
2/20
Legally documented workers here on visas with conditional social security numbers for work are treated like their citizen peers. Additionally, they are here legally, with a work permit.
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.
Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.
2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.
A surprisingly lucid doom post from the Telegram channel Veteran's Notes (Notes of a Veteran) from 13 July:
"No one is thinking of recognizing the new territories included in the Constitution of the Russian Federation..."
1/12
...Even if the Russian Federation now abandons Kherson and [Zaporizhzhia] and agrees to conclude a deal on the front line at the moment, no one will recognize the liberated territories, including Crimea, as Russian lands...
2/12
...Any agreements now are, at most, a freeze on the conflict for a respite, to re-equip and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to take revenge, and even try to inflict a military defeat on Russia again in the future...
After declining for months, the number of Russian officers being killed in action has increased sharply (yes, I'm accounting for the backlog and May 2025 war memorial updates).
Russia has a top-down command structure and no NCO corps. Subordinates are not empowered to overcome, adapt, and improvise. This has been a cornerstone of Russian military doctrine since the Tzars.
This forces senior officers to the frontlines.
2/7
The first thing to break is the battle plan, and unlike 2024, when Ukrainian forces made several disastrous mistakes, opportunities like botched troop rotations have been thin.
Correct, and @AndrewPerpetua's tweet yesterday about visually confirmed Russian daily casualties vs. the number of attacks supports our February 26 analysis that Russia's combat potential has peaked and is entering a slow decline.
Neither combatant can do anything "big," but Ukraine has been forced to think outside the box (Operation Spiderweb).
2/n
Barring some unforseen event (CBRN use, a major screw up by one of the combatants enabling a massive Kharkiv Counteroffensive sized breakthrough) the days of measuring daily gains in multiple kilometers is over.
3/n