The White House is setting conditions in the information space to justify a land invasion of Canada.
Someone needs to say it. The messaging is undeniable.
Unless the adults reenter the room, it will happen.
1/9
A) Questioning NATO loyalty and if the Alliance would support the US. Wrapped in a tasty sandwich of what if China attacked! That's not the real reason he is questioning the loyalty. Trump wants a coalition of the willing to help isolate Canada.
2/9
B) Calling the US-Canada international border and the treaty that created it "illegitimate." This is straight out of Putin's playbook, and not just in Ukraine.
3/9
C) Attempting to isolate Canada pre-invasion to weaken its economy. Again, this is a tactic Putin used in Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. For now, Moldova is off the table.
4/9
D) Referring to Canada as the 51st state, accusing Canada of refusing to hold elections, implying Treadau is a dictator, and calling the Canadian PM a governor.
These aren't jokes. This is the classic "repeat the lie long enough, it becomes the truth" propaganda.
5/9
E) Increasing US intelligence overflights of Canada in the name of "border security." These are intelligence-gathering missions, not a hunt for undocumented migrants.
6/9
F) The ongoing purge at the Pentagon to replace career officers loyal to the Constitution with sycophants loyal to a man. Every authoritarian regime on the planet has made this a first step in establishing control. Pete Hegseth is the least qualified Secretary of Defense in US history.
7/9
Why does Trump want to annex Canada? It's the same reason Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. Lebensraum and pillage its wealth and resources.
That's silly. Why would the US need the second-largest country on the planet? We have everything we need here!
Why does a country that covers 11 time zones need Ukraine? A country with vast untapped potential and wealth that is wasted due to authoritarianism and corruption.
The US wants bauxite (aluminum), cobalt, oil, natural gas, diamonds, gold, timber, and uranium...
That and 34 million people to work under conditions set by oligarch tech bros as they pillage Canada's sovereign wealth.
8/9
The real danger is most Americans who are reading this will think this is insanity. Why would the US invade Canada? We're practically brothers! A joint identity for almost 200 years.
The United States is now what the conspiracy theorists on both fringes said the US was and blathered that Trump would fix. The US is an unreliable power destroying itself at breakneck speed with imperialistic goals.
There is no political opposition. The only people who can stop this are the American people. I don't have much faith that will happen.
9/9
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Russia has lost its ability to project hard power across the world because of its almost 12-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine.
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
2/8
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
Last year, I wrote an analysis of Trump vs. Putin. I concluded there were two absolutes for both men.
1) Both hate hearing "no."
2) Both hate disloyalty.
When I wrote that analysis, I predicted they were on a collision course due to their egos and motivations.
1/16
As spring turned into summer, my hope faded as Trump repeatedly gave Putin "two weeks" despite it being painfully obvious that Witkoff was not the right guy to speak on behalf of the White House, and Putin was stringing Trump along.
2/16
There were flashes of improvement following the disastrous White House meeting on February 28. Trump and Zelenskyy meeting at the Vatican on April 26. The White House seeing through Putin's cynical "ceasefire" offer for Moscow's Victory Day Parade. Anger at the Palm Sunday attack on Sumy.
With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.
This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.
Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.
1/9
It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.
2/9
Tonight represents the sixth time Polish airspace has been violated since 20 August, with a clear pattern of escalation.
The incident, which some U.S. and European officials are openly calling an "act of war," comes less than a month after autocrat Vladimir Putin visited President Donald Trump in Alaska, claiming to seek peace.
3/9
Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.
1/20
Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.
2/20
Legally documented workers here on visas with conditional social security numbers for work are treated like their citizen peers. Additionally, they are here legally, with a work permit.
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.
Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.
2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.