1/ A recent shooting at a Moscow shopping mall has highlighted a deepening crisis among Russia's internal security forces. They are chronically underpaid, massively under strength and have lost vast numbers of personnel to Russia's war effort against Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ On 2 March 2025, 24-year-old Danila Potekhin was refused entry to the Krasny Kit shopping mall in Mytishchi in the Moscow region. He returned and tried to force his way in, firing six shots from a Grand Power T12 less-lethal pistol which moderately injured four guards.
3/ Potekhin admitted under interrogation that he was an lieutenant in the Federal Protective Service (FSO), a 50,000-strong force that guards top officials and government buildings such as the Kremlin. He was moonlighting as an Uber Eats-style food delivery courier.
4/ He reportedly told investigators that he was working part-time as a courier because of his low salary in the FSO and his need to pay off the debt he owed for a car he had bought on credit. He had been attempting to pick up a food parcel from the shopping mall.
5/ The incident has highlighted an ongoing crisis in the Russian security forces caused by the war in Ukraine. Inflation, poor working conditions and low salaries, which have remained static, have led thousands of personnel to take better-paid jobs in the army and war factories.
6/ Russian warbloggers have commented on the problem, pointing to the financial problems facing members of the military and security forces who are not participating in the war. A reader, likely from the FSO, tells the 'Combat Reserve' Telegram channel:
7/ "A serviceman of the FSO-FSB is given a monthly salary of 55,000 rubles [$611] in the first year of service. How is that even possible? In a couple of years, already having the rank of warrant officer, [only] 60-67,000 [$666-744].
8/ "Can you start a family and have children on this? And then an employee with such a monthly salary opens the Internet and sees that in 2024 the indexation of paltry salaries by a paltry 5% is frozen by the State Duma and the Government.
9/ "In 2014, I received $2,100. Ten years later, having received two salary increases for 20 and 25 years of service and two increases in bonuses for professionalism, I began to receive $900. That is, in terms of purchasing power, I was reduced by half in 10 years.
10/ "I recently read that in a Sverdlovsk penal colony a prisoner earned more than 300,000 rubles [$3,333] a month. But the state, apparently, is directly saying: quit the service to hell, commit a crime and you will earn well. Is that so?
11/ "The average salary in this penal colony, as they wrote, is 93,000 [$1,033]. This is the salary of an FSB-FSO captain. A special service officer with a higher education gets half as much as a courier.
12/ "Employees howl like wolves at every test with psychologists about how it has been impossible to live on pennies for three years now.
13/ "And at the top sits the director of the service with an official salary of 1.5 million rubles and he piously believes that 80-90,000 is a dream salary.
In my department (under 150 people), they have not collected money for the birth of children for several years.
14/ "Children are not born in families and families are not started.The birth of a child, as wild as it may sound, is a sentence for the employee's family – [you go] immediately into poverty.
15/ "An announcement recently appeared in the cafeteria in the Kremlin – no more than two second meals per person. Employees had begun to take a second meal home for dinner, since lunches are cheaper than in the city.
16/ "Many have begun to wear military boots, shirts, socks, since many who have children are not able to buy at today's prices. And these are FSO employees!"
17/ While police are able to quit and find better-paid jobs, this option is not open to members of security forces such as the FSO, the FSB and the Russian Guard (Rosgvardiya). They have to serve indefinitely until the war is over, forcing those like Potekhin to get second jobs.
18/ The 'IT'S TIME 🅉 🄾 🅅 TO GO HOME' Telegram channel points out: "The salary of an officer with a long service record is no more than 110,000 [$1,222], a lieutenant gets up to 80,000 [$888], a warrant officer 65-70,000 [$722-777], …
19/ …we are talking about the FSO and other similar structures, less in the Ministry of Defence, the police and the Russian Guard even less. It is not surprising that all this does not motivate personnel, but rather the opposite.
20/ "At the same time, there are many jobs where they pay more money, there is no responsibility, no risk to life and health."
This is in contrast to military salaries, which now start at 210,000 rubles ($2,400) with a 200,000 ruble sign-up bonus plus further benefits.
21/ @MarkGaleotti points out in his excellent podcast 'In Moscow's Shadows' that the police are facing increasing problems of corruption, demoralisation and overstretch. Putin's initiatives such as a drive to enforce vaguely defined 'moral values' have been highly unpopular.
22/ Overstretch is becoming increasingly severe. Regional police forces are now anything from a quarter to a third under strength. This problem has only grown during the war, resulting in a sharp rise in unresolved crimes including rape and murder.
23/ In November 2022, the Russian police were understrength by 90,000 officers. By November 2024, two years later, the staffing gap had grown to 173,800 – almost 20% of their overall strength. Regional gaps are much greater – 26% in Primorsky Krai.
24/ At local levels, the gaps are even bigger. The district police (who patrol local areas) are understrength by 34.6%, leading to individual officers having to police multiple districts. Patrol and Post Service officers (street officers) are understrength by 49.8%.
25/ This has left many Russians on their own against even violent crime. In one notorious case in Kemerovo, it took hours for police to respond to reports of screams coming from an apartment.
26/ By the time they arrived, neighbours had broken down the door to find that 27-year-old Vladislav Kanyus had killed his 23-year-old ex-girlfriend Vera Pekhteleva.
27/ The district officer in the area had asked his colleagues from other units to lend some officers to respond to the call. He was told in response that there were no officers available and that the city was being patrolled by “[just] three crippled guys.”
28/ Kanyus was sentenced to 14 years in jail but was later pardoned by Vladimir Putin after signing a contract to fight in Ukraine, despite protests from Pekhteleva's relatives.
29/ Russia's national riot police, the OMON, are also reportedly greatly understrength. A significant number were killed in Ukraine when they were deployed there in 2022 at the start of the war.
30/ The exact size of the OMON's shortfall has not been disclosed, unlike for the regular police, but anecdotal accounts from across Russia suggest that there are severe shortages of personnel.
31/ While this does not immediately threaten Putin's regime, it's an ominous sign: the top management is doing well, but the rank and file are increasingly unhappy and are looking for the exit. /end
1/ Russian fleet sailors are reportedly baffled by a directive from Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Sergei Pinchuk to give him real-time coverage of his ships by "connecting all the Mavics". ⬇️
2/ Russian warblogger and sailor 'Evil Sailor', who professes "Love for the Motherland and the Navy through clenched teeth and tears", writes:
"Sergey Mikhailovich has gone wild again!"
3/ "Our naval commander wanted to increase surveillance of the Black Sea Fleet ships in real time.
So to speak, from his office.
And he ordered all ship commanders to install video cameras, linking them into a single network.
1/ Russian warbloggers are furious about the apparently disastrous failure of an attempt to send 100 men through a gas pipe to Sudza, who were then suffocated by the Ukrainians. "Why? Why the fuck are you doing this? For what?", asks one angry blogger. ⬇️
2/ Seemingly posting inside information before the failure of the operation was known, Anastasia Kashevarova names the units involved and provides some details of how it was carried out:
3/ "Russian soldiers walked 15 kilometers 750 meters, crawled in a gas pipe to drive the enemy out of the Kursk region. The entire operation took a week: they walked for 2 days, sat in the pipe for 4 days (waited and took a break).
1/ Why has Donald Trump been demanding that Ukraine pay the US $500 billion, and how is this likely to be a demonstration of the principle of Trump's Razor?
2/ In early February 2025, Trump told journalists: "I told them [Ukraine] that I want the equivalent, like 500 billion worth of rare earth [sic]. And they've essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid."
3/ Since then, commentators have tried to work out the basis of this $500 billion demand. It has caused a great deal of puzzlement given that the US has only spent between $119.7bn – $182.8bn on supporting Ukraine and European allies.
1/ Donald Trump may be aiming to annex the Great Lakes – and possibly south-eastern Ontario in a maximalist scenario – and kick Canada out of NORAD, judging by first-hand accounts of talks between Canada and the Trump Administration. ⬇️
2/ The New York Times reports on first-hand accounts of what has been said in trade talks between the US and Canada, which led to Canadian PM Justin Trudeau saying publicly on March 4th that he believed Trump wanted to annex Canada.
3/ According to the NYT, Trump has told Trudeau that "he did not believe that the treaty that demarcates the border between the two countries was valid and that he wants to revise the boundary. He offered no further explanation."
1/ This is a hugely important finding from @jburnmurdoch (do follow him, he's one of the very best data analysts in the media). The US right is increasingly convergent with Putinism, and is leaving right-wing parties in other countries far behind.
2/ This can clearly be seen in UK polling, where sentiment towards Trump has become extremely negative across the entire political spectrum, including the most right-wing elements.
3/ As for why, @aselrod makes a good case in @BulwarkOnline that this is because Trump and the MAGA movement are essentially converting the historically anti-democratic culture of the American South into the ruling ideology of the US government. thebulwark.com/p/liberal-demo…
1/ Cash bonuses are incentivising Russian commanders to compete with each other to mount bloody assaults for symbolic or propaganda benefit, rather than doing slower but more useful work such as cutting off logistics, according to Russian warbloggers. ⬇️
2/ The 'Reporter Filatov' Telegram channel writes about the perverse incentives driving Russian army tactics in Ukraine (referring, as usual, to the "Laotian army" as a means of evading the censors):
3/ "I heard this about the Laotian army. And this is wonderful. Capitalism should have KPI [key performance indicators] and all that evaluation about successful success.