Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 8 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Trump claims Ukraine is collapsing (no cards), but the data tells another story: Ukraine stands firm while Russia grinds itself down, The Atlantic

I’d add: if you judge by territory gained, Russia is winning; but by lives lost for that territory, the results are disastrous
1/ Image
Russia's weaknesses include economic struggles (20% interest rates, inflation), with military spending consuming 40% of public spending amid declining oil revenue.
2/

Russian casualties increased: from 500/day in December 2022 to over 1,500/day by December 2024, totaling nearly 430,000 killed and wounded in 2024 alone.

48 240 losses in January 2025.
3/ https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/russian-invading/casualties/
Equipment losses (1,400 tanks, 3,700 fighting vehicles in 2024) exceed production capacity, forcing Russia to restore obsolete Soviet-era vehicles.

And even forced to use civilian cars for their attacks
4/

Ukraine's domestic production has reached 1.2 million UAVs in 2024 with targets of 4 million this year.

UAVs now cause 70% of Russian losses.
5/ Image
Image
European allies, with GDP 10 times Russia's, can significantly help Ukraine despite not replacing all US capabilities.

European/US aid accounts for 30% each, while Ukraine produces 40% of its military resources.
6/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/263621/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-russia/  https://www.statista.com/statistics/527869/european-union-gross-domestic-product-forecast/
The opinion in the Atlantic argues that US decisions are "particularly shortsighted and tragic" as Ukraine has "plenty of cards" but needs continued support.

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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 9
AN interesting point in Foreign Policy: Europeans are better at manufacturing, while the U.S. at digital. Which is more important in the new Trump’s world? 0/ Image
FP: Europe produces 50% more steel than the U.S. and dominates in vehicles, ships, and civil aircraft. In 2024, Airbus built twice as many planes as Boeing. 1/
Manufacturing employs 30 million Europeans, more than twice the 13 million in the U.S. It drives 16.4% of the EU’s economy versus 11% in the U.S. 2/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
In my view, this will be Trump's foreign policy toward Ukraine for the next four years.

1. Ukraine is a problem for his relationship with Russia, which should’ve reset, but Russia is an enemy too
1/
2. A reset should improve the U.S. Russia relationship in order to pull Russia away from China.

3. China is the main enemy. All efforts must be directed toward it.
2/
4. Europe should handle Russia and protect Ukraine on its own if it wants to. Together - Ukraine and Europe - are capable.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
Trump: [Zelensky] was taking candy from a baby [Biden]; I’ve checked - there is titanium, lithium in Ukraine;

Ukraine might not survive anyway; I’ve been tougher on Russia than Hamas;

no cut of the U.S. defense spending because of China, Russia. 0/
He's [Zelensky] a smart and tough guy. And he took money out of this country under Biden, like candy from a baby. And I don't think he's grateful. 1/
Trump: If I were president, you wouldn't have had Russia going into Ukraine, situation with Hamas, cause Iran was broke, worst evacuation from Afghanistan, and the highest inflation like under Biden. 2/
Read 20 tweets
Mar 8
TIME: US is trying to force Ukraine to accept Russian peace terms by cutting intelligence.

The intel cutoffʼs killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers, with the worst losses in Kursk, TIME reports.

Kellogg called it hitting a mule with a two-by-four to get Ukraine’s attention. 1/
Ukrainian forces can no longer detect Russian bombers taking off or prepare for airstrikes.

Without US satellite data, Ukraine cannot effectively use HIMARS against Russian command centers, and their Kursk supply line faces constant attacks. 2/ Image
Kursk, a key bargaining chip for Ukraine in negotiations, has been hit hardest by the intelligence loss.

Russia is quickly advancing to cut off Ukraine’s supply lines, threatening its hold on the region. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
In Ukraine, I see that Trump’s withdrawal of support hasn’t rattled Zelensky or undermined resolve of Ukrainians

Bloomberg concurs: despite the shockwaves, Kyiv adapts and fights on. These are details of what people focus on

1/ Image
Bloomberg: Commanders now plan how to fight without US military aid. Shortages are real, but the will to resist is unshaken. “We don’t have other options,” says Mustafa Nayyem. 2/ Image
Air raid sirens still wail. Russian missiles still strike. But the city is alive—stores are full, streets are busy, and recruitment posters cover every wall. 3/ Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Mar 8
Russia solider losses are unsustainable, eventually.

Yes, Russia has been able to surprise everyone by how long it can sacrifice its own, but one day they will be forced to stop.

It happened in Afghanistan, it will happen in Ukraine 0/ Image
The Economist points out that Trump pressures Ukraine to surrender, claiming it has "no leverage,” while Russia is losing far more soldiers while gaining almost no ground.

And this is true. Facts are important. 1/
The Ukrainian losses are high, but not as high as Russian. 65,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died, with estimates reaching 120,000 including the missing, UAlosses.

Russian losses? 150,000-210,000. Some reports put it at 172,000 as of January 2025. 2/ Image
Image
Read 6 tweets

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