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ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
@ChrisO_wiki
Mar 8 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
1/ Why has Donald Trump been demanding that Ukraine pay the US $500 billion, and how is this likely to be a demonstration of the principle of Trump's Razor? Image
2/ In early February 2025, Trump told journalists: "I told them [Ukraine] that I want the equivalent, like 500 billion worth of rare earth [sic]. And they've essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid." Image
3/ Since then, commentators have tried to work out the basis of this $500 billion demand. It has caused a great deal of puzzlement given that the US has only spent between $119.7bn – $182.8bn on supporting Ukraine and European allies.
4/ Here we come to the principle of Trump's Razor: 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙩𝙪𝙥𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙩𝙤 𝙗𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙩. The stupidest and therefore likeliest explanation in this case is simply that Trump is obsessed with arbitrarily big numbers.
5/ The figure of $500 billion may have lodged in Trump's mind in January 2025. On 21 January, Trump announced that OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank would form a new joint venture called Stargate to build $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the United States.
6/ Curiously, this was exactly 10 times the amount that Softbank said it would invest in Trump's first term. Trump also announced this personally, claiming it would create 50,000 new jobs. Half the $50 bn went into WeWork, which went bankrupt in 2023 with the loss of $11.5 bn.
7/ More announcements of investments of $500 billion or thereabouts appeared after the launch of Stargate. Saudi Arabia announced an investment of $600 billion and Apple promised to invest "more than $500 billion". Image
8/ Elon Musk got into the act too, writing an op-ed with Vivek Ramaswamy promising to "help end federal overspending by taking aim at the $500 billion plus in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended".
9/ As the Financial Times notes, "Winning the approval of the US administration is as simple as showing Trump a big number. He remains impressed to the point of obsession by big numbers." /end
Sources:
🔹 politico.eu/article/trump-…
🔹 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…
🔹 wsj.com/opinion/musk-a…
🔹 ft.com/content/7eafe8…

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Mar 10
1/ An officer of the Russian 37th Motor Rifle Regiment says its men are being "slaughtered" by their own commanders. A former Wagner mercenary who was "eager to fight for our country" is said to have "ended up as meat in the hands of his own commanders" who executed him. ⬇️ Image
2/ 35-year-old Anatoly Aleksandrovich Savin, callsign 'Pokhula', went missing in November 2024 on the front line east of Lyman, in the Donetsk region. His regiment is a relatively new formation, created only around May 2023.
3/ According to his mother Lidiya, Savin was an ex-Wagner Group mercenary who joined the army (likely in 2023) after the Russian Ministry of Defence effectively dismantled Wagner's presence in Ukraine. Image
Read 26 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Mar 9
1/ Russian fleet sailors are reportedly baffled by a directive from Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Sergei Pinchuk to give him real-time coverage of his ships by "connecting all the Mavics". ⬇️ Image
2/ Russian warblogger and sailor 'Evil Sailor', who professes "Love for the Motherland and the Navy through clenched teeth and tears", writes:

"Sergey Mikhailovich has gone wild again!"
3/ "Our naval commander wanted to increase surveillance of the Black Sea Fleet ships in real time.

So to speak, from his office.

And he ordered all ship commanders to install video cameras, linking them into a single network.
Read 5 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Mar 9
1/ Russian warbloggers are furious about the apparently disastrous failure of an attempt to send 100 men through a gas pipe to Sudza, who were then suffocated by the Ukrainians. "Why? Why the fuck are you doing this? For what?", asks one angry blogger. ⬇️
2/ Seemingly posting inside information before the failure of the operation was known, Anastasia Kashevarova names the units involved and provides some details of how it was carried out:
3/ "Russian soldiers walked 15 kilometers 750 meters, crawled in a gas pipe to drive the enemy out of the Kursk region. The entire operation took a week: they walked for 2 days, sat in the pipe for 4 days (waited and took a break).
Read 26 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Mar 8
1/ A recent shooting at a Moscow shopping mall has highlighted a deepening crisis among Russia's internal security forces. They are chronically underpaid, massively under strength and have lost vast numbers of personnel to Russia's war effort against Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ On 2 March 2025, 24-year-old Danila Potekhin was refused entry to the Krasny Kit shopping mall in Mytishchi in the Moscow region. He returned and tried to force his way in, firing six shots from a Grand Power T12 less-lethal pistol which moderately injured four guards.
3/ Potekhin admitted under interrogation that he was an lieutenant in the Federal Protective Service (FSO), a 50,000-strong force that guards top officials and government buildings such as the Kremlin. He was moonlighting as an Uber Eats-style food delivery courier. Image
Read 32 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Mar 7
1/ Donald Trump may be aiming to annex the Great Lakes – and possibly south-eastern Ontario in a maximalist scenario – and kick Canada out of NORAD, judging by first-hand accounts of talks between Canada and the Trump Administration. ⬇️ Image
2/ The New York Times reports on first-hand accounts of what has been said in trade talks between the US and Canada, which led to Canadian PM Justin Trudeau saying publicly on March 4th that he believed Trump wanted to annex Canada.
3/ According to the NYT, Trump has told Trudeau that "he did not believe that the treaty that demarcates the border between the two countries was valid and that he wants to revise the boundary. He offered no further explanation."
Read 18 tweets
ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Mar 7
1/ This is a hugely important finding from @jburnmurdoch (do follow him, he's one of the very best data analysts in the media). The US right is increasingly convergent with Putinism, and is leaving right-wing parties in other countries far behind.
2/ This can clearly be seen in UK polling, where sentiment towards Trump has become extremely negative across the entire political spectrum, including the most right-wing elements.
3/ As for why, @aselrod makes a good case in @BulwarkOnline that this is because Trump and the MAGA movement are essentially converting the historically anti-democratic culture of the American South into the ruling ideology of the US government. thebulwark.com/p/liberal-demo…
Read 4 tweets

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