Tyler Rogoway Profile picture
Mar 10 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Posted this in January. You don't need a 'kill switch' to severely hamper the utility of an exported weapons system, you just stop providing support for it and it will wither away, some systems very quickly. The more advanced the faster the degradation. This is in addition...
the impact from being locked out of centralized cloud-based system like F-35's ODIN (ALIS) that does so many things, including mission planning w/threat intel integration. Your jets would be far more vulnerable to loss without it...
let alone all the other stuff it does to keep the F-35 flying. Israel has invested in and made a deal for cutouts regarding these vulnerabilities. Nobody else has this deal or capabilities.
At the same time, there is no real replacement for the F-35. You would be sacrificing capability and survivability by stepping away from it. There is a whole ecosystem of capabilities provided beyond just the F-35 aircraft that would need to be established...
So major investment would be needed and force structure alterations. Unmanned capabilities and future indigenous fighter programs can solve the capability gap potentially, but this is not in the near term. Stepping away from F-35 isn't about just getting another fighter.
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More from @Aviation_Intel

Jan 30
As we noted in our story last night on the H-60/CRJ collision, the Capital Region is the most highly surveilled area of sky in the United States. Beyond radar, including ATC, military fire control, CUAS microwave radar systems, electro-optical/infrared sensors and passive detection systems also thickly blanket the area. There is nowhere else like this in the United States. So the data on these flights, specifically off-board telemetry, will far more detailed and plentiful than in a normal accident investigation. Stories for background... 1/X
Read 5 tweets
Jan 29
They will end up pulling this back/correcting it.
It was vastly people reporting airplanes and helicopters and a few drones (hobbyist, LE) mixed it. This was either very poorly worded or very carefully worded, either way it avoids the bottom line reality.
Another glaring case of massive domain awareness and basic knowledge set gap by those that don’t like to admit that kind of thing. Same old story with this topic and the feds/mil going back many years. I’m a broken record I will leave it there.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 14, 2024
Just a reminder that the U.S. military has one of the most advanced aerial surveillance capabilities on planet earth, the latest and greatest, sitting right there in New Jersey — literally an Aegis destroyer's sensor suite on land.
twz.com/40718/heres-wh…
And they would not see anything of scale because this is a silly farce. YES, U.S. military installations have had sporadic but very concerning drone incursions. Positive ID's objects. NO, New Jersey is not being invaded by mystery drones. YES, the news media is a joke on these issues by and large and you are being swindled by engagement farmers on social media showing you airplanes and mundane garbage with spooky captions.
YES, local gov officials seem to have no idea what they are talking about. Sorry, if there was evidence of this being credible you don't think we would be all over highlighting that? We broke the NJ base drone incursions story and ALL THE OTHERS over many years. All of them.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13, 2024
You want to see a glaring example of how some of mainstream media has totally lost its credibility, look at the drone story. They aren't even trying to get it right because the answers are not very exciting and you can't keep slapping the red button that is drawing audience.

Also understanding any of it takes work. Same reporter that covered a dog show or a car crash yesterday is covering this today. It's bad. Really bad. And the UFO angle means they don't even have to take it seriously at all, which is an unfortunate thing we have seen forever.
Really makes you think it's a futile exercise at this point.
And YES, the federal government has been absolutely atrocious at messaging on this, but that is not new at all, they denied their domain awareness gap for years until it was literally a top news story. They blew the drone threat until it was literally a deadly thing happening on a battlefield. There is a long track record of this, we have been reporting on it for over a decade in extreme detail.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 13, 2024
A year ago we published this very deep dive about the development of Anduril's Fury CCA. At the time I got a LOT of hate mail & comments saying this was vaporware and 'they have zero shot.' Lot's of folks from the big primes told me the same...

twz.com/the-rise-of-fu…
We developed this story over years, many interviews, transition after the Anduril acquisition & change from adversary drone to CCA. We had no doubt in our minds that this had a shot.

It was subsequently selected alongside General Atomics in competition for phase 1 CCA contract.
CCA & the larger advanced autonomy uncrewed space it will help open the door to is in many ways a bigger opportunity than any crewed platform. While the contract $ may be smaller early on, whoever gains supremacy here has the best shot at a far less volatile & larger future market
Read 7 tweets
May 27, 2024
Seeing this widely reported. Satellite imagery doesn't confirm a successful strike on another strategic Russian early warning radar site & low res imagery appears to be misinterpreted by some. Below is an image we obtained from Planet Labs taken at 0500 UTC this morning... 1/x
Image
It shows no outright signs on an attack or major damage to the array or the facility. We must highlight that commercial satellite imagery is limited as to what it can show. Small shrapnel damage could exist that is not apparent, but nothing really looks out of place....
The dark spots on the pavement which some claim from low res imagery are evidence of an attack reduce in size between this image and an image taken an hour later, pointing to them being residual water, not impact or fire damaged areas...
Read 5 tweets

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