Thread by @rorshockbtc

The market is trash, largely because of uncertainty regarding tariffs from the US and global trade conditions.

But what if I told you there's a political reason to be cautiously bullish, even in the short-term?

traditional 🧵

"Do or do not, there is no try."

Trump has modified tariffs & extended dates for Canada/Mexico tariffs twice. The active date is April 2.

Markets hate uncertainty and usually discount prices based on valuing the uncertainty as risk.

Tariff/no-tariff = ok. Uncertainty = bad.

In order to smoke our hopium, we need to consider political funding cycles. We'll reverse engineer:

Summer 2026: candidates endorsed
Spring 2026: debates, campaigning
Q4 2025: fundraising, stumping
Q2-Q3 2025: fundraising, kissing babies

The funding cycle is just beginning.

NOW

Republicans sit with a narrow House majority and are enjoying PR from "landslide election mandate" or trying to.

Congress is lining up behind Trump because it is entirely possible that RINOs will be primaried by MAGA. Rate-of-EOs/change makes trad republicans nervous.

NEXT

Fundraising often begins in April following inauguration, goes into full swing in June/July for standout candidates.

Big donors often have high investment exposure, this is why they're big donors.

If the "prescribed pain" takes too long, some donors will fund RINOs.

NEXT

While early fundraising has small indication of how an election will go, these donors also have strings attached to Congress already, especially the House. This is by design.

The Dems are also fundraising off this narrative: "Trump is CRASHING the economy Biden built!!!"

NEXT

This narrative is especially compelling to political windmills with exposure to tech, AI, etc. I think this is partially why they just did the SBR, it's damage mitigation for "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" republicans and libertarians.

Dems have a tech base.

FUTURE

Trump is playing a game of chicken with the markets and with both US political parties. OTOH, stagnate the economy too long and MAGA hurts in the mid-terms, undermining his final years as president. OTOH, cave too fast and alienate the base who ≈largely don't own stock.

My prediction is that he's eyeing somewhere between next week and mid-April for a "magical mystery tournaround" in either policy or results.

He's a 78 year old man and has that "thousand yard stare" ≈octogenarians get when they become consumed with legacy.

I think Trump wants strong MAGA majorities in the House after the mid-terms, making the final two years a "shock and awe" policy creation machine.

"But Cubby... if most MAGAs don't own stocks, then who cares?!"

Donors, bankers, investors, and corporate employees.

Trump's "new coalition" involves crypto bros, SV VCs, corporate types sick of woke, blue collar steel workers, auto mechanics, veterans, and a whole lot of "middle Americans."

The base isn't voting Dem soon, prob ever.

But the fringe 3-7% "midwit" who's on the fence...?

The midwits decide the country, always have. It's why America is great, it forces us to compromise although it annoys the bejeezus out of partisans like me.

Trump is staring at his legacy, considering funding cycles, and trying to solidify the base that gave him his mandate.

The absolute latest he could push it is probably August or September. But the market + acolytes are already pushing back.

I think he has maximum 90 days from now, more likely 10-60 days, before the media and peer pressure soften the coalition's edges. This is a political risk.

So, for trad markets, this should mean lower uncertainty "quickly." I'd anticipate a slightly dovish J Powell at the FOMC next week. I expect a dovish Powell at the May FOMC meeting. June latest.

To be-dove Powell, Trump needs strong reports in at least April, prob March too.

Trump's advisors should be telling him that he needs Q2 to end green for political purposes. If it ends red, it'll likely cost MAGA the midterms and give RINOs and Dems a surge in media, discourse, and funding and Trump's legacy can't afford that.

The coalition must be solid.

I'm willing to give this a 75% probability. I think there's a 25% probability the uncertainty harms markets & that Dems/etc want a recession to hurt Republicans in the midterms and undermine key policy communications.

I think the longer it goes, the more extended Trump becomes.

Finally, Trump's actions subvert his stated aims for tariffs. He's already ≈postponed Mex/Can tariffs twice. This suggests he's more likely to be seeking acquiescence than "TRADE WAR." It won't be surprising if he backpedals into FOMC next week or be-doves Powell somehow.

There's blood in the water and the sharks are smelling it.

Either Trump is fishing, or he will drive the boat off at the last minute. Maybe both. Max chaos!

But this all feels like predictable political game theory, only "shocking" because it's so uncommon in the first-world.

If you like this and are a conservative Bitcoiner type, give my alt accounts @chb_coop & @MAGAbitcoinApp a follow. I'm building out tools for MAGA to help us fight the deep state, leftist Big Tech, and more and need all the help I can get.

God bless you, and God bless America!

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