Chris Elmendorf Profile picture
Mar 11 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
It's exciting to see the public-intellectual drumbeat around "Abundance" manifest in this year's crop of California housing bills.

They're far more ambitious--and promising--than anything I've seen previously. 🧵/17 Image
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#1: CEQA reform that's broad, deep, and clean.

@Scott_Wiener's SB 607:
- authorizes admin mapping of good-for-infill areas & greatly simplifies CEQA review of housing in those areas (in line with the recommendations of this...

/2
leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavC…
paper, papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…, and this @CALittleHoover report, lhc.ca.gov/report/califor…)
- limits the administrative record in all CEQA cases, which will simplify & speed litigation
- limits scope of enviro study for projects that nearly qualify for an exemption
/3
- may make it easier for lead agencies to defend a finding of no significant impact, i.e., a decision not to prepare an EIR (this part still needs some wordsmithing, I think)
/4 Image
#2: An end to the permitting monopoly.

@ChrisWardCA's AB 258 allows builders of small housing projects (1-10 units) to get their permits from a licensed engineer if city doesn't approve or deny the project in 30 days.

/5 Image
This is a critical backstop for state ADU law, the small-lot subdivision law, and the lot-split/duplex law.
Many "little guy" builders of such projects don't have the resources to bring an HAA lawsuit, and even if they did, the remedy in an HAA case is not a permit.

/6
#3: Lot splits & duplexes, for real.

@Scott_Wiener's SB 677 allows 4 homes, each of at least 1750 square feet, to be built on pretty much any single-family-zoned parcel in the state. Irrespective of HOA covenants.

/7


#4: Upzoning near fixed transit, for real.

@Scott_Wiener's SB 79 set minimum densities, FAR & heights that cities must allow within 1/4 and 1/2 mile of transit stops.

"The best first-draft upzoning bill ever proposed in California," per @CohenSite

/8


#5: Defanging faux "historic districts."

@QuirkSilvaCA's AB 1061 cuts the landmark loophole out of CA's lot-split/duplex law.

Individual landmarked properties would still be protected, but cities couldn't just circle a big swath of the map and call it "landmarked."

/9
I wish AB 1061 went further (e.g., by addressing historic resources under CEQA), and I'm a bit concerned that cities may be recreate landmark districts by landmarking each property in the area, but at a minimum, the bill is a good start.

/10
#6. The Mother of All Permitting Reform Bills?

We're still waiting to see what @BuffyWicks's Select Committee on Permitting Reform delivers, but it looks like she will aim high.

"An aggressive red-tape snipping mood seems to have set in." ⤵️


/11 calmatters.org/housing/2025/0…Image
The bills in this 🧵have some important things in common.
- They don't require developers to set aside money-losing affordable units as the price of admissionn.
- They don't require developers to comply with costly labor rules as the price of admission.

/12
- They don't have self-defeating Yeoman Developer owner-occupancy requirements.

So they might actually deliver a lot of new housing!

/13
Or, they might be crushed by a tidal wave of opposition.

In previous years, the CA leg has (mostly) insisted that it's "prohousing" reforms be topped with a heavy dollop of anti-development bagel toppings.

/14


papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…Image
The results have been disappointing, even a little embarrassing, save for ADUs.

/15


yimbylaw.org/law-journal/ca…Image
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Thankfully, California's housing leaders have raised the ante in a major way.

Now it falls to @GavinNewsom, @CASpeakerRivas & @ilike_mike to whip the votes & bring these bills to fruition.

Can they do it? Stay tuned!

/end
@GavinNewsom @CASpeakerRivas @ilike_mike @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @CSElmendorf

Mar 11
Even if CA enacts this amazing set of bills ⤵️, there are big challenges ahead.

I see six areas of concern on the horizon. 🧵/16.
Concern #1. Local political incentives.

Ditching public hearings on housing proposals ("ministerial approval") is good, but it doesn't give city council members any affirmative reason to facilitate -- or simply not obstruct -- development.

/2
What would improve their incentives?

- Replace single-member district elections w/ at-large or multi-member district elections. There's strong causal evidence that SMD elections depress housig production.

- Fix Prop. 13, or create new state -> local fiscal...

/3 Image
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Read 17 tweets
Mar 4
Correction: My earlier posts (⤵️) about AB 1893's "baby builder's remedy" for projects on housing-element inventory sites missed an important detail.

There was (I think) an accident in the drafting of AB 1893 which may greatly limit its reach. 🧵/13 Image
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AB 1893 is @BuffyWicks's "builder's remedy grows up" bill.

It tried to clarify the development standards that apply to those housing projects which a city may not disapprove (or render infeasible) on grounds of noncompliance w/ zoning.

/2
Under subd. (d) of the HAA, there have long been two such classes of projects:

(1) in cities w/o compliant housing element: any housing project ("builder's remedy")

(2) in cities w/ compliant HE: projects on HE inventory sites at HE-allowed density ("baby builder's remedy")

/3 Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 1
Had a great chat yesterday w/ Tal Alster about Israel's TAMA 38 program and potential extensions to SFH -> plex projects in the U.S.
🧵/17 Image
TAMA 38 authorizes condo HOAs, by supermajority vote, to contract w/ developer to redevelop their building as a larger building w/ more units.

- owners each get a bigger/nicer/safer condo, and money to pay for temporary housing

- developer profits from the added units

/2
Program is hugely successful:

- more than 50% of new housing in Tel Aviv is built thru redevelopment of existing stock

- condo owners have become political supporters of densification

/3 Image
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Read 18 tweets
Jan 30
An L.A. rebuild problem which @GavinNewsom & Leg ought to fix, post-haste:

- Many people who lost their homes are underinsured & can't afford to rebuild.
- Many others are inexpert at supervising contractors & vulnerable to being scammed.

The best path forward...
1/🧵 Image
for many such folks is probably to sell their burned out property to a developer, for cash or cash + option to purchase a new townhome or condo that the developer will build on the property.

But, L.A. County's plan to 2-track permitting...

/2
(fast-lane for like-for-likes, slow lane for everything else), is going to depress what developers bid for properties and reduce opportunities for homeowners to strike "my lot for $ today + townhome tomorrow" deals w/ developers.

/3


Read 22 tweets
Jan 27
This Tuesday, LA County Commission will vote on a clusterf*ck resolution to speed the rebuilding of firetraps -- while exempting "fire impacted communities" from virtually all state housing laws for the next 5 years.
1/5 Image
(link: )

I figured there'd be some nonsense after the fires, but nothing like this.

The County proposes a two-track permitting system: fast lane for like-for-like rebuilds; slow lane for everything else.
2/5 file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/bos/s…Image
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The uber-nonsense begins on p. 13, where the resolution calls for a letter to the Governor and state legislative delegation from all L.A. county commissioners, demanding that "fire-impacted communities" (an undefined term--all of L.A. County?) be exempted from...
3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 21
Curious about federal tax & housing policy? Check out my new paper w/ @aarmlovi and @samjacobson9.

We argue that Congress should make housing projects in big, expensive cities ineligible for affordable-housing tax credits unless the city opts into federal prohousing rules.
1/5 Image
@aarmlovi @samjacobson9 (link: )

The federal prohousing rules would borrow from the recent "YIMBY" reforms adopted, on a bipartisan basis, in red and blue states alike.

To retain tax-credit eligibility, big cities would have to (1) allow dense housing in commercial...
2/5ifp.org/leveraging-lih…
@aarmlovi @samjacobson9 areas; (2) cap impact fees & grant waivers from infeasible "inclusionary" requirements; and (3) permit projects ministerially.

These rules would apply to all housing projects, not just projects financed with federal affordable-housing tax credits.
3/5
Read 7 tweets

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