1/ Ukrainian drones are dominating the skies above exhausted Russian soldiers in the Donetsk region, according to a prominent Russian warblogger. As a result, Russia's progress has virtually halted in the region, even as it advances in Kursk. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' highlights the likely culmination of the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. He contrasts the situation in the Donbas and Kursk, and warns that an orderly Ukrainian withdrawal in the latter will cause more difficulties in the former:
3/ "Against the background of significant advancement in the Kursk region, a serious slowdown in the offensive tempo of the Russian Armed Forces in Donbas has been observed for a month now.
4/ "And if in the Kursk region one of the factors of success is control over Ukrainian logistics with the help of FPV drone strikes, then near Pokrovsk a similar situation is observed, but in reverse.
5/ "Here, the Ukrainian Armed Forces already have a significant advantage in the number of drone strikes, which in many areas paralyzes supplies and does not allow reinforcements and ammunition to be delivered to the front line.
6/ "Another factor is the serious exhaustion of troops, conducting continuous assault operations for several months in a row. In such conditions, it is impossible to concentrate any significant forces to carry out attacks and subsequently consolidate.
7/ "A similar situation is in Toretsk. Which was first "taken on credit", declaring liberated even those outskirts where the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to hold the line, and then accumulated forces and were able to counterattack, taking advantage of the...
8/ ...passivity of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction.
It is likely that this picture will persist until the complete liberation of the Kursk region, when many experienced drone crews and other forces involved will be freed up for redeployment to new areas.
9/ "However, it should be understood that if it is not possible to "boil down" a significant part of the enemy's units along with their equipment and allow them to move to the Sumy region in a relatively organized manner, then after rest and replenishment they will also be able…
10/ …to redeploy them to the Donbas or somewhere else, which will again lead to a situation of parity."
1/ The acute exhaustion and demoralisation of the Russians fighting in eastern Ukraine comes across in a vivid description of conditions on the ground, as told by the Telegram blog of a Russian soldier titled, revealingly, 'Groundhog Day'. ⬇️
2/ 3 March 2025
"I have not been able to concentrate, sit down and write a note lately. Another hit cuts off the power, so I sit down to try to convey all the feelings of the last few days.
3/ "It is difficult to say that this is even real. The whole essence of what is happening to us, in general and to me in particular, is expressed easily and simply - a nightmare. No, there is no fear as such.
1/ Russian soldiers are being stuck with massive fines, to be paid from their own pockets, for driving military vehicles on toll roads. They complain that the Russian army is making them pay for so much themselves that they can't make any profit from fighting in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ A Russian army driver writes to the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel:
"I am a mobilised driver, I drive a Ural [truck]."
3/ "In Moscow there is a road called Bagration Avenue, I drove along it, with black [military] licence plates, I carried out orders, I chose this road because I wanted to reduce travel time.
1/ An officer of the Russian 37th Motor Rifle Regiment says its men are being "slaughtered" by their own commanders. A former Wagner mercenary who was "eager to fight for our country" is said to have "ended up as meat in the hands of his own commanders" who executed him. ⬇️
2/ 35-year-old Anatoly Aleksandrovich Savin, callsign 'Pokhula', went missing in November 2024 on the front line east of Lyman, in the Donetsk region. His regiment is a relatively new formation, created only around May 2023.
3/ According to his mother Lidiya, Savin was an ex-Wagner Group mercenary who joined the army (likely in 2023) after the Russian Ministry of Defence effectively dismantled Wagner's presence in Ukraine.
1/ Russian fleet sailors are reportedly baffled by a directive from Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Sergei Pinchuk to give him real-time coverage of his ships by "connecting all the Mavics". ⬇️
2/ Russian warblogger and sailor 'Evil Sailor', who professes "Love for the Motherland and the Navy through clenched teeth and tears", writes:
"Sergey Mikhailovich has gone wild again!"
3/ "Our naval commander wanted to increase surveillance of the Black Sea Fleet ships in real time.
So to speak, from his office.
And he ordered all ship commanders to install video cameras, linking them into a single network.
1/ Russian warbloggers are furious about the apparently disastrous failure of an attempt to send 100 men through a gas pipe to Sudza, who were then suffocated by the Ukrainians. "Why? Why the fuck are you doing this? For what?", asks one angry blogger. ⬇️
2/ Seemingly posting inside information before the failure of the operation was known, Anastasia Kashevarova names the units involved and provides some details of how it was carried out:
3/ "Russian soldiers walked 15 kilometers 750 meters, crawled in a gas pipe to drive the enemy out of the Kursk region. The entire operation took a week: they walked for 2 days, sat in the pipe for 4 days (waited and took a break).
1/ Why has Donald Trump been demanding that Ukraine pay the US $500 billion, and how is this likely to be a demonstration of the principle of Trump's Razor?
2/ In early February 2025, Trump told journalists: "I told them [Ukraine] that I want the equivalent, like 500 billion worth of rare earth [sic]. And they've essentially agreed to do that, so at least we don’t feel stupid."
3/ Since then, commentators have tried to work out the basis of this $500 billion demand. It has caused a great deal of puzzlement given that the US has only spent between $119.7bn – $182.8bn on supporting Ukraine and European allies.