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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Mar 12 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Manhattan is arguably America's most iconic city, and more arguably, its only 'real' city.

But its own laws have made the buildings that make it so iconic illegal to build more of🧵 Image
Many of the existing buildings in Manhattan that you couldn't make today are too tall by current standards. Image
Many of the existing buildings in Manhattan that you couldn't make today have too many apartments by current standards. Image
Many of the existing buildings in Manhattan that you couldn't make today have too much space dedicated to business by current standards. Image
Many of the existing buildings in Manhattan that you couldn't make today have building footprints that are too tall by current standards. Image
But the buildings that make New York tall, dense, and filled with architectural juxtaposition also made New York so iconic, they made it more livable than it would've been otherwise, and they made it great.

The new laws simply don't respect the old vision for New York. Image
This problem isn't unique to New York either.

In tons of American cities, existing builds are illegal by new standards that are generally not justified by any sort of safety or quality concerns, but which instead are driven by local interest groups and dumb policymakers.
For example, in San Francisco, 54% of all homes that exist there are illegal to build today! Image
Sources:

sfzoning.deapthoughts.com/illegal_homes.…

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 7
What predicts a successful educational intervention?

Unfortunately, the answer is not 'methodological propriety'; in fact, it's the opposite🧵

First up: home-made measures, a lack of randomization, and a study being published instead of unpublished predict larger effects. Image
It is *far* easier to cook the books with an in-house measure, and it's far harder for other researchers to evaluate what's going on because they definitionally cannot be familiar with it.

Additionally, smaller studies tend to have larger effects—a hallmark of publication bias! Image
Education, like many fields, clearly has a bias towards significant results.

Notice the extreme excess of results with p-values that are 'just significant'.

The pattern we see above should make you suspect if you realize this is happening. Image
Read 10 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 6
Across five different large samples, the same pattern emerged:

Trans people tended to have multiple times higher rates of autism. Image
In addition to higher autism rates, when looking at non-autistic trans versus non-trans people, the trans people were consistently shifted towards showing more autistic traits. Image
In two of the available datasets, the autism result replicated across other psychiatric traits.

That is, trans people were also at an elevated risk of ADHD, bipolar disorder, depression, OCD, and schizophrenia, before and after making various adjustments. Image
Read 6 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 6
Across 68,000 meta-analyses including over 700,000 effect size estimates, correcting for publication bias tended to:

- Markedly reduce effect sizes
- Markedly reduce the probability that there is an effect at all

Economics hardest hit: Image
Even this is perhaps too generous.

Recall that correcting for publication bias often produces effects that are still larger than the effects attained in subsequent large-scale replication studies.Image
A great example of this comes from priming studies.

Remember money priming, where simply seeing or handling money made people more selfish and better at business?

Those studies were stricken by publication bias, but preregistered studies totally failed to find a thing. Image
Read 6 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 5
Neat new article from @Scientific_Bird.

It argues that one of the reasons there was an East Asian growth miracle but not a South Asian one is human capital.

For centuries, South Asia has lagged on average human capital, whereas East Asia has done very well in all our records. Image
It's unsurprising when these things continue today.

We already know based on three separate instrumental variables strategies using quite old datapoints that human capital is causal for growth. That includes these numeracy measures from the distant past.

Image
This makes a lot of sense, too.

Where foreign visitors centuries ago thought China was remarkably equal and literate (both true!), they noticed that India had an elite upper crust accompanied by intense squalor.

Image
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 4
The results are in and 58.3% of the almost 7,500 responses said...

Men tend to get more steps in a day!

Sources say...

Yes. Wherever we have large-scale, representatively sampled data, men tend to get a few more steps in compared to women. Image
Step counts tend to vary by area.

For example, New York—thanks to New York City—has the highest average step count.

Colorado—due in part to its selected active, athletic population—also manages a high step count.

You'll also notice that moderate temps mean more steps. Image
What's up with these location effects? Are they causal?

As it turns out, the answer is partially in the affirmative.

That is, some places actually encourage people to walk more!

How do we know? Simple.
Read 13 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 1
Stats on the homeless population are abysmal.

One-in-two has a disability and/or a traumatic brain injury. One-in-five has psychosis. One-in-ten is schizophrenic. One-in-four is mentally retarded.

These facts have major consequences! Image
As I noted recently, the White House wants to bring back involuntary commitment.

They're probably in the right to call for that, since so many homeless are incapable of taking care of themselves, or at the very least, not hurting others.

Image
This risk can be through no fault of their own.

Some people are mentally downtrodden because of injuries to the head.

Among the homeless, over half have suffered a TBI, compared to 12% of Americans. Just over 20% have a TBI-related disability, compared to about 2% of Americans.
Read 10 tweets

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