Thread by @ThreshedThought

How Russia could test Article 5 and collapse NATO …

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We are in a very dangerous moment in European history

In a nutshell, Europe has allowed its own defences to wither as it has felt safe and secure under an American security blanket.

European countries have taken successive peace dividends by downsizing their military capabilities since the end of the Cold War to the point that they are unable to operate without the United States.

And now … with the (re)election of Donald Trump, there is an ambivalence (at best) or downright hostility (at worst) towards Europe from America.

It is clearly accepted by the European powers (but not the UK, yet) that America is not interested in European security any more, and probably wouldn’t respond to a testing of Article 5.

(Article 5 is the mutual defence clause in the NATO treaty that stipulates that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. It has been reaffirmed by every US President since the treaty was signed in 1949).

So the question is how does Russia respond to this?

I mean, if Article 5 doesn’t work any more, because the Americans don’t support it, and the Europeans can’t fight without America, then Russia would be sensible to try and test that premise.

How might it do that?

Here is a very easy scenario to test Article 5, and it is an absolute nightmare for the UK.

Estonia. I recently went there on a Defence Select Committee trip.

There are approximately 900 British troops in Estonia (alongside 300 French troops).

The Brits and the French are integrated with the Estonian defence forces and COME UNDER ESTONIAN COMMAND.

British Forces are based at Tapa, which is about 70 miles from the Russian border (note the town of Narva, circled in red).

Let’s say the Russians want to test article 5.

Easiest thing to do is to have a ‘nibble’ at Narva. Maybe some little green men, maybe some border incursions, maybe something cloaked in the narrative of protecting Russian speakers.

At some point, the Estonians decide that they’ve had enough and they decide to move their forces forward from Tapa toward Narva to reinforce their border.

Naturally, they order the British battle group forward with them (it is literally part of their army division).

The UK National Component Commander - also naturally - checks back with London to see if this is ok.

London meanwhile is on the phone to Washington, asking if the US is going to get involved. These would be pre-article 5 discussions, if you like.

The UK National Component Commander is told to wait while London gets an answer from Washington. Paris is seeking similar assurances.

The Estonians meanwhile are getting quite impatient - half of Narva by this point has Russian little green men all over it.

Finally, they find Trump on a golf course - and he doesn’t know where Estonia is, and doesn’t care.

The US is out.

Without US support, the UK is not putting its battle group in direct confrontation with Russian forces.

London denies permission for UK forces to move forward to Narva with the Estonians.

That’s it. That’s the end of Article 5, and with it NATO.

Not to mention that this scenario would be utterly, utterly humiliating for the UK.

I mean a grand, generational humiliation.

I’m not sure how much the UK government has realised quite how much risk it is taking in Estonia now that the US has made clear its ambivalence to NATO, and to Article 5.

(Let alone the British public, who have very little idea, largely because their leaders aren’t telling them about the scale of threat that we face.)

These are very worrying times in Europe - we need to get our act together fast.

ENDS