THREAD breaking down what he sees & how he got to this number...
Saylor's analysis allows for a bearish scenario of "only" $3M per BTC...
But also a BULLISH scenario of as much as $49M per BTC in just 20 years.
How did he get these numbers?...
As a starting point, Saylor leveraged my analysis (@Croesus_BTC). This gave him:
- $900T of value in the world
- rationale that all $900T is within scope as SoV
- "Full Potential Valuation" framework for forecasting #Bitcoin value
(Can find original article at link in my bio)
With this starting point, Saylor then needed to determine:
- how much capital will #Bitcoin absorb from other asset buckets
- how quickly that will happen
- what else changes along the way
These assumptions and the associated math resulted in Saylor's conclusion:
#Bitcoin will grow to $280T, or $13M/BTC in just 20 years
What would that mean for the world?
#Bitcoin grows from 0.2% to 7% of assets, equating to 35x growth relative to everything else
"Everything pretty much stays the same, except for... Those who embrace #Bitcoin get richer and powerful; those that don't embrace Bitcoin get weaker and poorer." -Michael Saylor
The Bitcoin24 model reveals all of Saylor's assumptions and thinking.
I'll be taking a deep dive into all that Excel analysis in my next slide thread.
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$13M per #Bitcoin in 20 years.
If this does happen, it's the biggest story in the history of finance. Fortunes will be made by some; most will regret not paying attention sooner.
Here's an overview of this story, and a preview of the analysis coming next...
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I just read Binance's formal response to the SEC's lawsuit, so you don't have to.
Here are the key arguments they submitted to the courts today.
It's an embarrassingly weak defense... [thread]
The primary framing of the document, and the primary argument for the court to deny the SEC its request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to halt Binance activities is...
"Why now?"
That's the best Binance has...
The first assertion that Binance's lawyers make is that the SEC has no right to ask the courts to interject.
Which seems a little comical, as the SEC's mandate is to enforce securities law and they believe Binance has flouted those laws.