Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴) Profile picture
Mar 12 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
$13M per #Bitcoin in 20 years.

That's what Michael @Saylor expects.

THREAD breaking down what he sees & how he got to this number... Image
Saylor's analysis allows for a bearish scenario of "only" $3M per BTC...

But also a BULLISH scenario of as much as $49M per BTC in just 20 years.

How did he get these numbers?... Image
As a starting point, Saylor leveraged my analysis (@Croesus_BTC). This gave him:

- $900T of value in the world
- rationale that all $900T is within scope as SoV
- "Full Potential Valuation" framework for forecasting #Bitcoin value

(Can find original article at link in my bio) Image
With this starting point, Saylor then needed to determine:

- how much capital will #Bitcoin absorb from other asset buckets
- how quickly that will happen
- what else changes along the way Image
These assumptions and the associated math resulted in Saylor's conclusion:

#Bitcoin will grow to $280T, or $13M/BTC in just 20 years Image
What would that mean for the world?

#Bitcoin grows from 0.2% to 7% of assets, equating to 35x growth relative to everything else

"Everything pretty much stays the same, except for... Those who embrace #Bitcoin get richer and powerful; those that don't embrace Bitcoin get weaker and poorer." -Michael SaylorImage
The Bitcoin24 model reveals all of Saylor's assumptions and thinking.

I'll be taking a deep dive into all that Excel analysis in my next slide thread.

To make sure you don't miss it, hit 'Follow' Image
$13M per #Bitcoin in 20 years.

If this does happen, it's the biggest story in the history of finance. Fortunes will be made by some; most will regret not paying attention sooner.

Here's an overview of this story, and a preview of the analysis coming next...

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More from @Croesus_BTC

May 22
Strategy will own $70T of #Bitcoin in 20 years, making it by far the most valuable company in the history of the world.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies will hold 50% of all BTC, way more than most Bitcoiners are prepared for.

THREAD on why... and a personal announcement 🌙😄 Image
To set the stage, there is $1000T of asset value in the world.

Bitcoin is just 0.2% Image
Saylor's perspective is half of all capital is simply looking for the best Store of Value.

Bitcoin is the best SoV asset.

SoV capital will osmotically flow towards Bitcoin. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 5
Global asset landscape - 2025 update!

In 2023, there was $900T of global wealth. Today, that number has grown to $1000T.

THREAD on the key insights of this analysis... Image
Total global asset value has grown at 6% per year, over the last 2 years.

#Bitcoin has been the star performer. Image
The global money supply has grown at 4.8% per year over the last 2 years.

This analysis from @DylanLeClair_ shows the M2 money supply for the 21 largest economies, converted into dollars.

The world isn't getting 6% richer per year. Fiat currency is diluting at 4.8%+ per year. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 19
Saylor's huge new move: $STRF

Strategy is a pump, designed to accelerate capital flow from the Bond market into #Bitcoin

This is how @saylor will source $3T of Bond market capital to buy Bitcoin

THREAD explaining it all... Image
Bond market:
~2% convertible debt
~98% ordinary debt

To date, Strategy has sourced capital via individual convertible notes

Now they've added:
- $STRK to streamline convertible note offering
- $STRF to tap into the $300T of capital in the broader fixed income market Image
Don't believe me? Listen to Saylor tell you:

"There's $300 trillion of fixed income so I want 1% of it."

He is thinking about this graphic. It's why he shows it in every presentation.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14
There are now 36,000,000+ altcoins.

This has only made #Bitcoin stronger.

THREAD breaking down what's happening & why altseason has been permanently cancelled... Image
As the number of altcoins has grown...

Their combined strength has weakened.

Since 2021, Bitcoin dominance has increased. Image
When coins die, they don't go to $0. They last trade at $10k or $100k market cap.

With 36M coins like this, a significant portion of total crypto market cap is illiquid leftovers.

With that in mind, Bitcoin is approaching *effective* total dominance... Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 10
.@saylor revealed his latest Strategy to acquire more BTC

The potential scale? +262,500 BTC and +52% BTC yield

THREAD breaking down what it means for #Bitcoin, $MSTR, and $STRK ... Image
This new program gives Strategy up to $21B in newly raised funds, explicitly to buy Bitcoin Image
Strategy will sell shares of $STRK directly into the market ("at-the-market") in order to streamline fundraising

Previously, they had to announce, price, sell, and close individual Convertible Notes Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
I just read Binance's formal response to the SEC's lawsuit, so you don't have to.

Here are the key arguments they submitted to the courts today.

It's an embarrassingly weak defense... [thread] Image
The primary framing of the document, and the primary argument for the court to deny the SEC its request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to halt Binance activities is...

"Why now?"

That's the best Binance has... Image
The first assertion that Binance's lawyers make is that the SEC has no right to ask the courts to interject.

Which seems a little comical, as the SEC's mandate is to enforce securities law and they believe Binance has flouted those laws.

Kinda the SEC's whole thing... Image
Read 7 tweets

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