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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 12, 2025 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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Rubio on Ukraine: No public negotiation. Ceasefire means nothing if war returns. Ukraine needs deterrence. Europe’s role in talks is unclear, but sanctions and security commitments matter. U.S. minerals deal isn’t a security guarantee, but it ties U.S. interests to Ukraine. 1/

Rubio: The goal is long-term security. A ceasefire means nothing if war returns in a few years.

Ukraine needs real deterrence. Every country has the right to defend itself, and that must be part of the conversation. 2/

Rubio: European sanctions, frozen assets, and security commitments will be part of any negotiation. Their role - front or back end - remains to be seen. 3/

Rubio: No rockets, no missiles, no bullets, no artillery. The shooting stops, the talking starts. Then we turn that into something concrete. 4/

Rubio: A minerals deal helps both countries. A stronger economy lets Ukraine fund its defense. It’s not a security guarantee, but if the U.S. has an economic stake, it has an interest in protecting it. 5/

Rubio: No contact with Zelensky[while in Saudi Arabia]. He sent his foreign minister and security chief to represent Ukraine, which is standard practice. 6/

Rubio about ceasefire: Modern warfare is hard to hide - satellites and surveillance see everything.

If a ceasefire happens, both sides must agree on who monitors it. Oversight is key. 7/

Rubio: The U.S. isn’t arming Russia - every sanction stays. No point in threats before they respond.

If they refuse, we’ll assess and adjust. The goal is lasting peace. 8/

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 7

Ukraine forced Starlink to cut off Russian troops.

After Kyiv’s request, SpaceX blocked unregistered terminals, disrupting Russian frontline communications and drone control. Russian military bloggers report widespread outages — NYT 1/

Russia had used smuggled Starlink terminals for years.

Recently, Russian forces began mounting Starlink on drones, improving targeting and reducing vulnerability to jamming. 2/

Defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov coordinated with SpaceX.

Starlink now works in Ukraine only for government-verified terminals. Contraband Russian devices were locked out via a whitelist. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 6

Ukrainian POWs were forced to exhume civilians killed by Russia in Mariupol.

Marine Serhii Hrytsiv: “Over four weeks, we dug up around 800 civilian bodies.” Russia made prisoners clean up the crime scene — then blamed them for it, reports. 1/ Slidstvo.Info

Every morning at 4 am, POWs were taken from Olenivka colony to ruined Mariupol.

Serhii Hrytsiv: “They divided us into groups of 5 and drove us into the city.” They dug in courtyards, gardens, mass graves, under collapsed homes. 2/

The dead included children and elderly people.

Serhii Hrytsiv: “Many died from shelling, hunger, cold, no medical care.” Some bodies were torn apart. Often they could reach only one victim while entire families remained buried under concrete. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 6

Plan A for Ukraine: foreign troops on the ground, air patrols, and naval presence, with the United States as a backstop.

Plan B: an 800,000-strong Ukrainian army.

Politico argues that with a neighbor like Russia, Ukraine must rely primarily on itself to preserve peace. 1/

Ukraine no longer treats political security guarantees as a sufficient foundation for survival.

Decades of broken promises—from the 1994 nuclear disarmament pledges onward—have taught Kyiv that written assurances can fail at the decisive moment. 2/

Ursula von der Leyen described Ukraine’s future model as a “steel porcupine,” a country so heavily armed and resilient that any aggressor would find it impossible to digest.

This is a design requirement. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 6

Russian occupation makes young Ukrainian men illegal on their own land: join Russia’s army, or go to prison. So they run.

In 2024 alone, Russia drafted 5,500 men from Crimea. Since 2015, it has drafted 50,000+ Crimean residents into the Russian army. — Hromadske.

1/

Vasyl, 20, from Crimea got his first draft notice at 18 — at work.

He hid, moved across Russia, and fled through Belarus to Ukraine in Dec. 2025 — without documents.

2/

Bogdan, 18, from occupied Berdiansk, faced the same path.

Russian authorities pulled him from class, took him to a psychiatric hospital, registered him for the draft, and told him: “Free until 2026. Then — the army.”

3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

For Putin, the end of the war would be a referendum on his presidency. He fears that verdict.

That is why he keeps sending soldiers into the grinder — to preserve the appearance of control and momentum, writes Michael Kimmage and Hanna Norte in FA. 1/

On the eve of invading Ukraine in 2022, Russia held a workable global position.

It had strong ties with China, deep economic links with Europe, and a “functioning” relationship with the United States.

Russia was flexible, connected, and not isolated. 2/

The invasion destroyed that position overnight.

Europe and the U.S. became adversaries.

Russia lost diplomatic leverage in Europe and became structurally dependent on China for trade, technology, and markets. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Feb 5

Kyrylo Veres, commander of Ukraine’s K2 unmanned systems brigade: Reaching 50,000 confirmed enemy losses per month is realistic.

Unconfirmed can become near 80,000.

When you add unverified losses from infantry, and artillery, the real number is much higher.

1/

Kyrylo Veres: In the army, every specialist has a cost. As cynical as it sounds.

Training an FPV drone pilot costs about 300 times more than training an infantryman.

2/

Kyrylo Veres: If there’s another breakthrough toward Kyiv, many fighters will want to leave to defend their homes. Then it will collapse on both fronts.

I know this personally — in 2022, when my home near Kyiv was occupied, I begged my brigade commander to let me go.

3/