Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 12 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Rubio on Ukraine: No public negotiation. Ceasefire means nothing if war returns. Ukraine needs deterrence. Europe’s role in talks is unclear, but sanctions and security commitments matter. U.S. minerals deal isn’t a security guarantee, but it ties U.S. interests to Ukraine. 1/
Rubio: The goal is long-term security. A ceasefire means nothing if war returns in a few years.

Ukraine needs real deterrence. Every country has the right to defend itself, and that must be part of the conversation. 2/
Rubio: European sanctions, frozen assets, and security commitments will be part of any negotiation. Their role - front or back end - remains to be seen. 3/
Rubio: No rockets, no missiles, no bullets, no artillery. The shooting stops, the talking starts. Then we turn that into something concrete. 4/
Rubio: A minerals deal helps both countries. A stronger economy lets Ukraine fund its defense. It’s not a security guarantee, but if the U.S. has an economic stake, it has an interest in protecting it. 5/
Rubio: No contact with Zelensky[while in Saudi Arabia]. He sent his foreign minister and security chief to represent Ukraine, which is standard practice. 6/
Rubio about ceasefire: Modern warfare is hard to hide - satellites and surveillance see everything.

If a ceasefire happens, both sides must agree on who monitors it. Oversight is key. 7/
Rubio: The U.S. isn’t arming Russia - every sanction stays. No point in threats before they respond.

If they refuse, we’ll assess and adjust. The goal is lasting peace. 8/

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 6
Europe is quietly preparing for a scenario it has avoided saying out loud: that Ukraine may be pushed to accept territorial concessions if it wants the war to end — El País.

Macron, Merz, Rutte, Stubb — Ukraine cannot be left in the hands of the US and Russia. 1/ Image
In Brussels, security envoys from France, Germany, Finland, Italy and the UK met Ukraine’s Umerov.

Several European representatives gave to understand that peace may be impossible without a large part of the sacrifices Russia demands. 2/
Stubb warned his own public to expect an unjust peace and signaled territorial concessions may be part of any deal.

Umerov: The territories Russia wants are protected by Ukraine’s Constitution — and the emotional, political, and security cost would be immense. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Dec 5
I didn’t expect any different… US pressured EU to block €90bn Ukraine loan tied to frozen Russian assets.

US officials tell EU capitals they need these funds for a future deal with Moscow, not for Ukraine’s wartime budget, writes Bloomberg.

1/ Image
The EU holds €210bn in frozen Russian assets and wants to use part of this sum to finance Ukraine’s military and economic needs for 2026–2027 years.

EU aims to approve the plan at a leaders’ meeting this month.

2/
US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner prepare a new round of talks with Ukraine’s security adviser Rustem Umerov in Florida.

Ukraine faces a cash shortfall early in 2026 after Trump cut most US aid and increased pressure on Europe.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 5
NYT: Zelenskyy’s government made Energoatom’s supervisory board unable to function and then blamed the board for not stopping a $100M kickback scheme.

The board was structurally blocked from acting and the government used it as a scapegoat. 1/ Image
The government approved a charter that required 3 votes out of 4 to appoint or dismiss top managers. Then it launched the board with only 4 members and one seat intentionally left vacant.

A 2-2 split format could not change top managers or challenge political deals. 2/
During the year-long delay and the board’s paralysis, investigators say officials siphoned and laundered $100M through Energoatom contracts, with contractors paying 10-15% kickbacks. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 5
UK prepares to transfer £8bn in frozen Russian funds to Ukraine — The Times

EU, Canada and others also are working to unlock a wider £100bn package for Kyiv.

1/ Image
NATO foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss releasing frozen Russian assets. The UK forces the EU to unlock €90bn held mainly in Belgium’s Euroclear.

Belgium resists because the sum equals almost one-third of its GDP and could trigger legal claims.

2/
The European Commission proposes using emergency EU powers to seize Russian funds and bypass a Belgian veto.

Brussels calls for a fast decision because Ukraine faces a large funding gap in 2026–2027 and needs money to keep its government running and its army fighting.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 5
Richard Blumenthal: Kidnapping children is more than a war crime. It is literally genocide. The goal is the destruction of Ukrainian identity.

We need to pass the bill on sanctions, recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, and also try to use frozen Russian assets. 1/
Lindsey Graham: You can’t fairly end this war without accounting for every child taken by Russia.

Congress must judge if the deal is good or bad and assess security guarantees that “must outlast the Trump administration. 2/
Katie Britt: Imagine your children ripped from your arms, and you don’t know where they are. Imagine them, terrified, being forced to renounce everything they knew and loved.

Our moral duty is to keep working until every child is back in their parents’ arms. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4
Kelin, Russia Ambassador to UK, on peace: We stand for diplomatic solution, but we don’t want on our border a puppet state created by Western governments, adversarial to us, where the Russian language is discriminated and the Russian Orthodox Church has been ousted. 1/
Q: Most of the world would say you guys started this fight.

Kelin: That is not true. It is said by those who do not want to learn history. Things started in 2014 after the illegal turnover of the legal government in Kyiv by people based on Nazi ideology. 2/
Kelin: European countries do not work for peace. UK, France, Germany stand for continuation of fighting. The defense industry continues to work. It is beneficial for their economies, so they don't need to explain that their political mistake put their economy in a poor state. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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