Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 12, 2025 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Rubio on Ukraine: No public negotiation. Ceasefire means nothing if war returns. Ukraine needs deterrence. Europe’s role in talks is unclear, but sanctions and security commitments matter. U.S. minerals deal isn’t a security guarantee, but it ties U.S. interests to Ukraine. 1/
Rubio: The goal is long-term security. A ceasefire means nothing if war returns in a few years.

Ukraine needs real deterrence. Every country has the right to defend itself, and that must be part of the conversation. 2/
Rubio: European sanctions, frozen assets, and security commitments will be part of any negotiation. Their role - front or back end - remains to be seen. 3/
Rubio: No rockets, no missiles, no bullets, no artillery. The shooting stops, the talking starts. Then we turn that into something concrete. 4/
Rubio: A minerals deal helps both countries. A stronger economy lets Ukraine fund its defense. It’s not a security guarantee, but if the U.S. has an economic stake, it has an interest in protecting it. 5/
Rubio: No contact with Zelensky[while in Saudi Arabia]. He sent his foreign minister and security chief to represent Ukraine, which is standard practice. 6/
Rubio about ceasefire: Modern warfare is hard to hide - satellites and surveillance see everything.

If a ceasefire happens, both sides must agree on who monitors it. Oversight is key. 7/
Rubio: The U.S. isn’t arming Russia - every sanction stays. No point in threats before they respond.

If they refuse, we’ll assess and adjust. The goal is lasting peace. 8/

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 10
Yuliia Dvornychenko from Ukraine’s Donetsk region spent two years in Russian captivity. Her two sons waited the entire time.

Yuliia: I was tortured: electric shocks, stripped, beaten. They threatened to send my kids to an orphanage. I signed anything to stop it. — DW.

1/
Yuliia: People traveled from occupied areas to Ukraine-controlled territory to buy basics, collect pensions, get medicine. Everyone needed to get out; for some, just to breathe.

We’d go with the kids to see the difference between life under occupation and outside it.

1/
Yuliia: The unit that captured me got 500,000 rubles($6,500) for taking Ukrainian “spies.” My younger son slept, the older saw everything.

Then the kids were alone for a month, the occupation security service banned neighbors from helping.

2/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 9
The EU may give Ukraine EU-level protections before full membership

The EU is weighing a peace-deal formula that grants Kyiv early access to EU membership rights and safeguards, locking in a time-bound path to full accession, possibly by 2027 — Bloomberg.

1/ Image
One option would grant Ukraine up-front accession protections, legal, economic, and regulatory safeguards, plus immediate access to selected EU rights, before formal membership.

2/
At the same time, the EU would lock in a time-bound accession roadmap, fixed steps and deadlines, replacing today’s open-ended process that can stall for years.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 9
Shot and bleeding in a dugout, Ukrainian soldier convinced his Russian captors to surrender.

Volodymyr Aleksandrov lay wounded in hand and pelvis as an FPV mine blocked the entrance and drones hunted above. “If I was going to die, I would take them with me” — Hromadske. 1/ Image
Russian troops ambushed Aleksandrov and his partner while they collected food dropped by drone.

Russians fired from a house, wounded him, argued over killing him, then kept him alive to register a live prisoner for money. 2/
Russians carried Aleksandrov into the dugout and stepped on their own FPV mine.

The blast tore off part of one soldier’s leg, wounded another, and hit Aleksandrov again — shrapnel wounded his shoulder and ear and left him concussed. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 9
Russia gave its main security agency legal power to shut down internet and phone service nationwide. Like in Iran: cut the web when protests erupt.

If crowds fill Moscow’s streets, the switch is ready — United24.

1/ Image
The State Duma passed the law on Jan. 27.

The UK Ministry of Defence says it lets the FSB order total communication blackouts for vaguely defined “security threats,” with no clear limits and no oversight.

2/
The order takes effect immediately.

Telecom operators must cut internet, mobile, landline, and messaging services the moment the FSB demands it — no court order, no appeal.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 9
Kallas: We haven’t seen any concessions on the Russian side. We only have seen what Ukrainians are willing to concede to end this war.

Russia is the problem that has been attacking its neighbors. To prevent war from expanding, we should have concessions on the Russian side. 1/
Kallas: There will always be people in the West who will offer you something so that you walk away with more than you had.

The size of the Ukrainian army is not the problem. The size of the Russian army and military budget is a problem for all its neighbors. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
Beevor, British historian: We are seeing a fresh conflict developing, a second Cold war, with Putin and the rise of China and the threat from Xi.

It is an extension of the Cold War, but also a new era of geopolitics, a split between authoritarianism and democracy. 1/
Beevor: In second Cold War, geopolitics are changing so rapidly. Russian and Chinese leaders used to stick with agreements. We’re not seeing that anymore. We cannot trust Putin to stick to anything he says. It will be seen as one of the greatest self-inflicted disasters in history. 2/
Beevor: We are not going to see a 1917 February revolution in the streets. That’s impossible because a revolution depends on the collapse of willpower of the ruling elite. They know they’ve got nowhere to go except perhaps for Qatar or Dubai into exile. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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