Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 12 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Rubio on Ukraine: No public negotiation. Ceasefire means nothing if war returns. Ukraine needs deterrence. Europe’s role in talks is unclear, but sanctions and security commitments matter. U.S. minerals deal isn’t a security guarantee, but it ties U.S. interests to Ukraine. 1/
Rubio: The goal is long-term security. A ceasefire means nothing if war returns in a few years.

Ukraine needs real deterrence. Every country has the right to defend itself, and that must be part of the conversation. 2/
Rubio: European sanctions, frozen assets, and security commitments will be part of any negotiation. Their role - front or back end - remains to be seen. 3/
Rubio: No rockets, no missiles, no bullets, no artillery. The shooting stops, the talking starts. Then we turn that into something concrete. 4/
Rubio: A minerals deal helps both countries. A stronger economy lets Ukraine fund its defense. It’s not a security guarantee, but if the U.S. has an economic stake, it has an interest in protecting it. 5/
Rubio: No contact with Zelensky[while in Saudi Arabia]. He sent his foreign minister and security chief to represent Ukraine, which is standard practice. 6/
Rubio about ceasefire: Modern warfare is hard to hide - satellites and surveillance see everything.

If a ceasefire happens, both sides must agree on who monitors it. Oversight is key. 7/
Rubio: The U.S. isn’t arming Russia - every sanction stays. No point in threats before they respond.

If they refuse, we’ll assess and adjust. The goal is lasting peace. 8/

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More from @Mylovanov

May 12
Trump: I believe the two leaders [Putin and Zelensky] will be there [in Istanbul].

I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I’m going to be on Thursday.

I’ve got so many meetings. But there’s a possibility of it. 1/
Q: Are you ready to impose sanctions on Russia if Putin doesn’t agree with the 30-day ceasefire?

Trump: I have a feeling they’re going to agree. I do. I have a feeling. 2/
Trump: Thursday's meeting with Russia and Ukraine is very important.

I was very insistent that that meeting take place. Good things can come out of that meeting. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Finally, there is a pope who understands what is happening in Ukraine. Pope Leo XIV calls for peace, names the wars in Gaza, India, Pakistan, and Ukraine, and warns: we are living through a piecemeal World War III. 1/
Pope Leo XIV: I carry in my heart the suffering of the beloved Ukrainian people; do everything possible to achieve, as soon as possible, an authentic, just, and lasting peace—may all prisoners be freed and may children return to their families. 2/
Pope Leo XIV: Brothers and sisters, the immense tragedy of the Second World War ended 80 years ago on May 8, after having caused 60 million casualties. I too address the world’s great leaders... ‘Never again war.’ 3/
Read 5 tweets
May 11
Russia hoped Trump would bring peace on Russia’s terms. Not happening.

Instead, the war drags on, oil revenues fall, and Putin faces growing pressure at home.

Andrei Kolesnikov reports in Foreign Affairs on fake euphoria, shrinking cash, and no exit plan.

1/ Image
Putin used Victory Day 2025 to showcase new allies. Myanmar soldiers marched through Red Square.

VIPs came from Equatorial Guinea and Burkina Faso. Xi Jinping joined. The U.S., U.K., and France - absent. 2/
The Kremlin claims Ukraine is the new Nazi Germany. Since 2022, Victory Day has served to rebrand the Ukraine war as WWII 2.0.

Trump’s return let state media recast the U.S. as a potential partner, not an enemy. 3/
Read 12 tweets
May 11
The Guardian: Trump declared a "total reset" in US-China trade ties after the first day of talks in Geneva.

Top officials, including China’s He Lifeng and US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent met for 8 hours in their first in-person attempt to resolve the tariff-driven trade war.

1/ Image
Current US tariffs on Chinese goods are at 145%, with some totaling 245%. China hit back with 125% levies, nearly halting trade.

The US seeks to cut its $295B trade deficit and push China to shift its economic model.

2/
China’s state media Xinhua called US tariffs a “reckless abuse” that’s hurt the global economy but welcomed the talks as progress.

Analysts doubt a breakthrough, as Trump floated an 80% tariff. The US insists China must make concessions before any tariff cuts.

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 11
Putin: We propose that Kyiv resume the direct negotiations they broke off in late 2022.

We are ready to start without any preconditions - already next Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul, where the talks were previously held and halted

There are two lies here:

1/
First, it is Russia who derailed the 2022 negotiations when Putin demanded an effective surrender of Ukraine: He wanted Russia’s veto power over any Western support in case of another invasion.

2/

Second, Europe and Ukraine, backed by the US made a “no preconditions” ceasefire offer, which Putin rejected yesterday.

Instead, he put “no precondition” talks as preconditions for ceasefire

3/
Read 5 tweets
May 11
Putin has rejected (again!) the 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposal from Ukraine, the EU, and the US.

Instead, he offered to talk about peace in Istanbul.
1/
Starmer, Macron, Merz, Tusk, and Zelenskyy met yesterday in Kyiv and held a joint call with Trump.

Zelensky made an ultimatum backed by the EU and aligned with the US: a full unconditional ceasefire on land, air, and sea starting Monday; or else - sections and pressure.

2/
The Kremlin rejected the ultimatum immediately, in its usual style of whataboutism and “yes, but not, let’s do something else”. Now, we will see if the Western powers go through with promises of sanctions and pressure.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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