Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Mar 12 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Rubio on Ukraine: No public negotiation. Ceasefire means nothing if war returns. Ukraine needs deterrence. Europe’s role in talks is unclear, but sanctions and security commitments matter. U.S. minerals deal isn’t a security guarantee, but it ties U.S. interests to Ukraine. 1/
Rubio: The goal is long-term security. A ceasefire means nothing if war returns in a few years.

Ukraine needs real deterrence. Every country has the right to defend itself, and that must be part of the conversation. 2/
Rubio: European sanctions, frozen assets, and security commitments will be part of any negotiation. Their role - front or back end - remains to be seen. 3/
Rubio: No rockets, no missiles, no bullets, no artillery. The shooting stops, the talking starts. Then we turn that into something concrete. 4/
Rubio: A minerals deal helps both countries. A stronger economy lets Ukraine fund its defense. It’s not a security guarantee, but if the U.S. has an economic stake, it has an interest in protecting it. 5/
Rubio: No contact with Zelensky[while in Saudi Arabia]. He sent his foreign minister and security chief to represent Ukraine, which is standard practice. 6/
Rubio about ceasefire: Modern warfare is hard to hide - satellites and surveillance see everything.

If a ceasefire happens, both sides must agree on who monitors it. Oversight is key. 7/
Rubio: The U.S. isn’t arming Russia - every sanction stays. No point in threats before they respond.

If they refuse, we’ll assess and adjust. The goal is lasting peace. 8/

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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 13
Trump says things with Russia are "going well," he has leverage, but refuses to tell what it is, because things are going well

Trump: We are hearing that things are going well in Russia 0/
Right now, our representatives in Russia are engaged in very serious negotiations. Ukraine has agreed to a full ceasefire, and we hope Russia will do the same. 1/
Trump: We know where we stand with Ukraine, and we are getting good signals from Russia.

I hope they do the right thing. If not, it will be a very disappointing moment for the world.
2/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
Russia’s plan: stall, seize, and destroy Ukraine, says WSJ. A leaked FSB-linked document calls for Ukraine’s “complete dismantling.” No peace before 2026. Trump’s 100-day deal? “Impossible.” Moscow wants war.

[I suspect this is a propaganda leak, but still useful] 1/ Image
Image
Russia demands total control: seized land, a buffer zone in the northeast, a demilitarized zone near Odessa. No peacekeepers. No strong Ukrainian army. This isn’t a deal. It’s surrender. 2/
Moscow wants more than land. The document says Russia should divide the U.S. from China and Europe, then dangle access to minerals in occupied Ukraine. Putin wants Washington on his side. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 13
Putin: Ukraine needs truce, we don’t; I agree to truce, but demand impossible conditions - no mobilization, no military aid or training for Ukraine, but I agree to truce 0/
Putin: How will the 30-day truce be used - so that Ukraine can сontinue to receive weapons? To enforce mobilization? 1/
Putin: For the Ukrainian side, it would very good to reach a truce for at least 30 days. And we are in favor. But there nuances.

What are we going to do with this part of the encampment in the Kursk region? If we stop fighting for 30 days, what does mean?

2/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 13
Putin says nothing about ceasefire but lays out his plan: crush Ukrainian forces in Kursk, treat captured soldiers as terrorists, and create a security zone on the border.

He claims Russia acts "humanely" but says foreign fighters have no Geneva Convention rights. 1/
Putin: We treat everyone in our hands humanely and must continue to do so. 2/
Putin: Russia will treat captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region as terrorists. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 12
Lavrov: Nothing on ceasefire, American efforts to break U.S. off China are futile, Rubio recognizes multi polar world where country’s power is defined by its strength, smaller countries are second rate, we still want other Ukrainian territories, where ethnic Russians live. 0/
Lavrov: China and US never interrupted the dialogue. They would say, hands off Taiwan, South China Sea. Let's meet and talk. Same approach is now accepted by the Trump to Russia. I think it's only right. 1/
Lavrov: There are no two persons who would be 100% alike, same with countries. Countries who can seriously influence the fate of the world, militarily, by nuclear powers - have special responsibility. 2/
Read 22 tweets
Mar 11
Rubio: We've made an offer to the Ukrainians and they accepted - to enter into a ceasefire and immediate negotiations.

We’ll take this offer to Russians. And we hope they say “yes”. The ball is now in their court.

1/
Waltz: President Trump has decided to lift the pause on aid and on our security assistance to Ukraine going forward. And that is effective immediately. 2/
Waltz: We've gone from IF the war is going to end, to HOW the war is going to end.

That was under President Trump's leadership. He has literally moved the entire global conversation. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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