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Peter Duan

@BTCBULLRIDER

Nov 11

Michael Howell and Lyn Alden are two of the sharpest macro minds in Bitcoin.

Yet on two recent interviews, they have seemingly diverging views on where we are in the cycle.

Here’s where they agree and disagree (with my added commentary).

A 🧵:

1/ Macro Backdrop Has Flipped

In late October, Howell warned that “Fed liquidity is falling and that’s a danger sign.”

Two weeks later, the Fed blinked.

QT ends December 1.

Repo markets are flashing stress.

The Treasury General Account (the government’s cash pile at the Fed) is now near $1 trillion, sucking money out of the system.

As Howell put it:

“They’re starving the repo markets of liquidity… this is money being sucked out of the system.”

2/ Howell: Vindicated (Yet Still Cautious)

The Fed’s reversal validates his earlier warning, but he says it’s nowhere near enough.

“The Fed has been forced into action. But asset markets are still going to be short of cash.”

He estimates a $250B shortfall in bank reserves and expects QE to return by 2026.

His term: “Not-QEQE” means the Fed isn’t stimulating growth.

Rather, it’s just keeping the pipes from freezing.

Read 6 tweets

Peter Duan

@BTCBULLRIDER

Sep 26

Lyn Alden just went on Natalie Brunell's show to break down Bitcoin, gold, fiscal dominance, and the Fed’s next moves.

This wasn’t a doom-and-gloom macro forecast... but it wasn’t hopium either.

Here’s what made Lyn’s analysis different (and why Bitcoin is set up well for the next 12 months):

A 🧵:

1/ Fiscal Dominance Never Left

“The private sector itself is in a sluggish state. But when you’re running 6–7% of GDP structural deficits without a recession...that’s stimulus.”

In other words, the US economy is being propped up not by strength, but by permanent deficit spending.

This is why Lyn frames the current environment as fiscal dominance.

In other words, Washington, not Wall Street, is steering this cycle.

2/ Misery Index Recession

Unlike some of the doom and gloom journalists on TV, Lyn does not expect a 2008-style crash.

Instead, she warns of “emerging market-style recessions” which means it is less about mass layoffs and more about the misery index.

Fyi, the misery index = inflation + unemployment.

In 2022, it spiked to levels normally associated with recessions.

But this time, the pain came from high inflation as opposed to a broken labor market.

That’s the template Lyn sees repeating in the years ahead.

Read 7 tweets

Peter Duan

@BTCBULLRIDER

Sep 11

Every 80 years, the world hits a breaking point.

Debt piles up. Wars erupt. Empires crumble.

Ray Dalio just went on Diary of a CEO show to reveal the 5 forces that drive this cycle.

His warning?

The U.S. empire is already unraveling...but there's a way for you to opt out.

A 🧵:

1/ Who is Ray Dalio?

“Pain + Reflection = Progress.”

In 1982, he bet big on a crash that never came.

The result?

He went broke and had to borrow $4,000 from his dad to pay the bills.

Most would have quit.

But Dalio? He chose to reflect.

From those lessons, he wrote the #1 New York Best Seller book called Principles.

These principles became systems.

And those systems built Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.

2/ 5 Forces of History

There are 5 levers that move history:

1) Debt & Deficits
2) Internal class/ Political war
3) Great Power Conflict
4) Acts of Nature
5) Technological Disruption

When all 5 converge, the world resets in a major and often chaotic way.

Do these sound familiar now?

Read 8 tweets

Peter Duan

@BTCBULLRIDER

Sep 9

Michael Saylor just delivered the most compelling pitch on MSTR to the Wall Street community.

Here’s what he revealed (and why this presentation is a masterclass that all TradFi needs to understand ASAP).

A 🧵:

1/ From Fringe to Mainstream

Between 2020–2024, most investors didn’t understand Bitcoin.

As a result, Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets was considered insane.

But after the “red sweep in November,” the narrative flipped.

The White House, the SEC, the Fed, and even the FBI now openly embrace Bitcoin.

In Saylor’s words:

“We went from grudging acceptance… to enthusiastic embrace.”

This is the fastest legitimization of a new asset class in capital market history.

2/ Public Companies = Super Spreaders

“When a public company decides to buy Bitcoin, they become a viral super spreader.”

He pointed to Metaplanet in Japan as a great example.

What once was a bankrupt $10M hotel chain now holding just over $2B in Bitcoin....just 15 months later!

Why?

Because public companies can raise equity and debt in unlimited amounts to acquire the hardest asset known to mankind.

Saylor compared it to “throwing a fire into a gasoline warehouse... it just becomes self-feeding.”

Each Bitcoin Treasury Company is not just a holder.

It’s an amplifier.

Read 8 tweets

Peter Duan

@BTCBULLRIDER

Sep 3

Jeff Park was just on Natalie Brunell’s show to break down the monetary reset that’s already in motion.

Bitcoin is superseding the US dollar... while reshaping American exceptionalism in the process.

Here’s everything you need to know (with my added commentary).

A 🧵:

1/ Stablecoins: Going Mainstream

“Every bank’s going to be issuing them,” said Jeff about stablecoins.

From Interactive Brokers to Amazon and Walmart, institutions are racing to roll out their own.

The Genius Act and Clarity Act opened the floodgates for regulated dollar-backed stablecoins.

This isn’t just a crypto story...it’s the digitization of money itself.

Stablecoins are the “training wheels” for Bitcoin adoption, normalizing programmable money at scale.

2/ The ETF Breakthrough

For the first time, ETFs can now accept in-kind Bitcoin creations and redemptions.

Previously, Authorized Participants (APs) could only use cash, forcing issuers to buy BTC in the market.

Now, Bitcoin can flow directly in and out.

Jeff called it “an incredible win” for investors because it lowers costs, reduces friction, and strips out middlemen.

Translation: Wall Street is finally trading Bitcoin itself, not just paper wrappers.

Read 9 tweets

Peter Duan

@BTCBULLRIDER

Sep 1

Balaji went on Peter McCormack’s show to issue a stark warning: America’s empire is collapsing.

Its successors?

China and the Internet...with Bitcoin sitting at the center of this transition.

Here’s everything you missed (with my added commentary).

A 🧵:

1/ Who is Balaji?

Balaji Srinivasan is one of the most unique thinkers at the intersection of tech, money, and geopolitics.

Here are some of his credentials:

– Stanford PhD in Electrical Engineering
– General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
– Former CTO of Coinbase
– Author of The Network State
– Founder of The Network School

He’s famous for seeing around corners by predicting trends like Bitcoin, remote work and biohacking years before the mainstream.

2/ Why Tariffs Won’t Work

“Banning is easy. Building is hard.”

Politicians thump their chests about double digit tariffs, but they ignore the real issue: America hasn’t rebuilt its manufacturing base.

Tariffs don’t magically create factories.

Instead, they just bankrupt local businesses caught in supply chains.

True industrial policy means analyzing the entire chain and crowdfunded domestic suppliers (as opposed to just waving the "tax stick").

Read 10 tweets

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