Michael Howell and Lyn Alden are two of the sharpest macro minds in Bitcoin.

Yet on two recent interviews, they have seemingly diverging views on where we are in the cycle.

Here’s where they agree and disagree (with my added commentary).

A 🧵:
1/ Macro Backdrop Has Flipped

In late October, Howell warned that “Fed liquidity is falling and that’s a danger sign.”

Two weeks later, the Fed blinked.

QT ends December 1.

Repo markets are flashing stress.

The Treasury General Account (the government’s cash pile at the Fed) is now near $1 trillion, sucking money out of the system.

As Howell put it:

“They’re starving the repo markets of liquidity… this is money being sucked out of the system.”

Lyn Alden just went on Natalie Brunell's show to break down Bitcoin, gold, fiscal dominance, and the Fed’s next moves.

This wasn’t a doom-and-gloom macro forecast... but it wasn’t hopium either.

Here’s what made Lyn’s analysis different (and why Bitcoin is set up well for the next 12 months):

A 🧵: 1/ Fiscal Dominance Never Left

“The private sector itself is in a sluggish state. But when you’re running 6–7% of GDP structural deficits without a recession...that’s stimulus.”

In other words, the US economy is being propped up not by strength, but by permanent deficit spending.

This is why Lyn frames the current environment as fiscal dominance.

In other words, Washington, not Wall Street, is steering this cycle.

Every 80 years, the world hits a breaking point.

Debt piles up. Wars erupt. Empires crumble.

Ray Dalio just went on Diary of a CEO show to reveal the 5 forces that drive this cycle.

His warning?

The U.S. empire is already unraveling...but there's a way for you to opt out.

A 🧵: 1/ Who is Ray Dalio?

“Pain + Reflection = Progress.”

In 1982, he bet big on a crash that never came.

The result?

He went broke and had to borrow $4,000 from his dad to pay the bills.

Most would have quit.

But Dalio? He chose to reflect.

From those lessons, he wrote the #1 New York Best Seller book called Principles.

These principles became systems.

And those systems built Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.

Michael Saylor just delivered the most compelling pitch on MSTR to the Wall Street community.

Here’s what he revealed (and why this presentation is a masterclass that all TradFi needs to understand ASAP).

A 🧵: 1/ From Fringe to Mainstream

Between 2020–2024, most investors didn’t understand Bitcoin.

As a result, Bitcoin on corporate balance sheets was considered insane.

But after the “red sweep in November,” the narrative flipped.

The White House, the SEC, the Fed, and even the FBI now openly embrace Bitcoin.

In Saylor’s words:

“We went from grudging acceptance… to enthusiastic embrace.”

This is the fastest legitimization of a new asset class in capital market history.

Jeff Park was just on Natalie Brunell’s show to break down the monetary reset that’s already in motion.

Bitcoin is superseding the US dollar... while reshaping American exceptionalism in the process.

Here’s everything you need to know (with my added commentary).

A 🧵: 1/ Stablecoins: Going Mainstream

“Every bank’s going to be issuing them,” said Jeff about stablecoins.

From Interactive Brokers to Amazon and Walmart, institutions are racing to roll out their own.

The Genius Act and Clarity Act opened the floodgates for regulated dollar-backed stablecoins.

This isn’t just a crypto story...it’s the digitization of money itself.

Stablecoins are the “training wheels” for Bitcoin adoption, normalizing programmable money at scale.

Balaji went on Peter McCormack’s show to issue a stark warning: America’s empire is collapsing.

Its successors?

China and the Internet...with Bitcoin sitting at the center of this transition.

Here’s everything you missed (with my added commentary).

A 🧵: 1/ Who is Balaji?

Balaji Srinivasan is one of the most unique thinkers at the intersection of tech, money, and geopolitics.

Here are some of his credentials:

– Stanford PhD in Electrical Engineering
– General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
– Former CTO of Coinbase
– Author of The Network State
– Founder of The Network School

He’s famous for seeing around corners by predicting trends like Bitcoin, remote work and biohacking years before the mainstream.

Money is the invisible operating system of the world.

Yet that system is broken...by design.

Lyn Alden calls it Broken Money, a history of how gold turned into 160 inflating currencies that silently rob us every day.

Here’s the untold story (and the way out):

A 🧵: 1/ The Purpose of Money

Money is supposed to be a neutral ledger.

It's a way to trade fairly.

It should store purchasing power.

It's meant to coordinate economies across time.

But when governments and banks seize the ledger, they weaponize it by printing money that robs your savings while fattens those closest to the printer.

In the 90s, Adam Back was a day trader.

In the 2000s, he was the only person Satoshi cited in the white paper.

Today, he’s convinced of one thing:

“Every company will eventually become a Bitcoin Treasury Company.”

Here’s the framework he shared at Bitcoin Asia (and why it could reshape every balance sheet on earth):

A 🧵: 1/ Who is Adam Back?

Adam Back isn’t just a “tech guy.”

He was a cypherpunk in the 90s who built the proof-of-work system that Satoshi cited in the Bitcoin white paper.

He also spent years as a day trader and value investor, obsessed with protecting savings from inflation.

So when he saw Michael Saylor turned MicroStrategy into a Bitcoin Treasury Company, Adam immediately saw the bigger picture.

Michael Howell just went on Marty Bent’s TFTC show to issue a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle is peaking.

He says every major crisis is essentially a debt refinancing crisis...and the next one is within the next 6 to 9 months.

So how does this tie into the Fed, stablecoins, China, and Bitcoin?

Here’s the breakdown (with my added commentary).

A 🧵: 1/ Who is Michael Howell?

As CEO of CrossBorder Capital, Michael is the undisputed leader in tracking global liquidity.

A former Salomon Brothers veteran, he built a proprietary framework back in the 1980s to map capital flows and decode central bank behavior.

So what makes his work stand out?

It’s data-rich, real-time, and strips away the noise.

Most analysts obsess over lagging signals like M2.

Howell’s weekly liquidity updates give investors a live read on the tide that drives every market.

If you want to front-run macro instead of reacting to it, you need to be watching CrossBorder Capital.

Jeff Booth just went on Frank Corva’s show to deliver a blunt message: one system must die for Bitcoin to win.

He says money has always been subordinate to law and those who control money rewrite the laws to serve themselves.

But Bitcoin flips the script.

Here’s what Jeff said, what it means, and how Bitcoin changes the game (with my added commentary).

A 🧵: 1/ The Natural State of Markets

“The natural state of the free market is deflation.”

In a truly free market, innovation drives prices down forever.

Why?

Because humanity progresses by making goods and services cheaper.

However, our credit-based system can’t survive falling prices. Instead, it relies upon constant inflation.

That’s why you see shocking statistics like:

- The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. is now 36, the oldest on record.

- A cart of groceries that cost $100 in 2000 now costs $190.

- Since 1971, the dollar has lost 86% of its purchasing power.

This isn’t random chaos. It’s the system working exactly as designed.

Preston Pysh just went on What Bitcoin Did podcast to deliver a masterclass on why MSTR is the king of Bitcoin Treasury Companies.

He covers how MSTR's “financial engineering” works, why some copycats will fail, and why understanding fixed income is the real unlock.

This wasn’t your typical bullish soundbite session - it was a deep dive into the mechanics behind Saylor's Strategy (and why some Bitcoin Treasury Companies can blow up spectacularly).

Here’s everything you missed (with my commentary).

A 🧵: 2/ Why Are Bitcoin Treasuries So Misunderstood?!

Preston says you need three skillsets to truly grasp Bitcoin Treasury Companies:

1. A deep understanding of Bitcoin itself.

2. Knowledge of security analysis (common, preferred, convertible structures, etc).

3. Awareness that the 40-year bull market in bonds is unraveling (aka deep fixed income knowledge).

Most critics only understand maybe just one of these?

Almost no one masters all three.

This is why these Bitcoin Treasury Companies are constantly mispriced and therefore deeply hated.

Simon just prophesied that a tidal wave of capital is heading straight for Bitcoin Treasury Companies.

But this wasn’t your typical Bitcoin conversation.

Simon laid out why we’re still in Phase 1 (the Gold Rush phase) and teased what Phase 2 will look like.

Here’s a breakdown of everything you missed (with my added commentary):

A 🧵: 1/ “Is mNAV a Good Metric?”

According to Simon, "BTC Yield" is the most important metric.

Meanwhile, mNAV is your company's trading multiple and will ebb and flow as the market and community gauges your performance.

While every company has different reasons to be trading at a premium to NAV, Metaplanet initially received its premium because of the capital gains regulations around Bitcoin in Japan.

If you were to buy spot Bitcoin, you will be taxed at an onerous rate of up 55%.

Meantime, Metaplanet has the standard capital gains flat rate of 20% (while also growing your Bitcoin/share)!

So what about Metaplanet’s target mNAV?

The answer: 3 to 5 mNAV.

Why?

"Because it balances high Bitcoin accretion without sacrificing shareholder price."

As promised, I am doing my diligence on IREN.

Per Frans' suggestion, I started with a Peter McCormack's episode with Daniel Roberts, Co-CEO of IREN.

If you are a fellow IREN virgin, here's everything you need to know (with my added commentary).

A 🧵: 1/ Meet the Co-CEOs

Daniel and Will Roberts are the co-CEO brothers behind IREN (Iris Energy), a Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure company powered by 100% renewable energy.

Dan brings 20+ years of experience in infrastructure, renewables, and finance, with previous roles at Macquarie Capital and Palisade Investment Partners, a multi-billion AUM infrastructure fund.

Will’s background is in commodities, mining, and digital assets, spending over a decade at Macquarie Group where he co-founded their digital assets team.

Together, the Roberts brothers founded IREN in 2018 after discovering Bitcoin in 2013.

Their edge?

Deep infrastructure expertise and a vision to solve energy grid challenges while scaling Bitcoin and AI compute.

Dylan LeClair just hopped onto Spaces to explain Metaplanet's new 555 (AKA "Go Go Go" Plan).

But this hour of alpha wasn’t just him reading off the slides.

Here's everything you missed (and why you need to listen to it ASAP).

A 🧵: 1/ 210,000 Bitcoin

Let's start with a rather shocking yet realistic goal.

Metaplanet is targeting 1% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2027.

The best part?

"This new plan frankly is conservative" - Dylan LeClair

But before we dive in, it's important to understand the context first.

Michael Saylor just joined Jordan Peterson's show to prophesize the collapse of the U.S. dollar while offering Bitcoin as the solution.

But this wasn’t your typical Saylor interview.

Here’s what made it different (and why you need to watch it):

A 🧵: 2/ The Perfect Interviewer

Peterson is often criticized for interrupting his guests.

But in Saylor’s case, it worked beautifully.

As a clinical psychologist, Jordan's probing questions are designed to uncover the why, not just the what.

This type a pattern interrupt reveals the guest’s underlying psychology, forcing them to present ideas from fresh and unexpected angles.

For example, even though Saylor earned an engineering degree from MIT, he said he would’ve preferred to study history at Yale (but ROTC would not have covered the tuition).

But it is through his exact love of history, combined with a childhood spent immersed in science fiction, that gave Saylor the ability to bridge the past with the future.

💡Bitcoin Treasury Companies 101: Lesson #2💡

How to Weaponize Your Balance Sheet w/ mNAV & Accretive Dilution

What if stock dilution actually increased shareholder value?

That’s exactly what Bitcoin Treasury Companies are doing.

By flipping the script and raising money via issuing equity, their are activating their balance sheet to accrete Bitcoin, the rarest commodity known to man.

A 🧵: 1/ mNAV: The Key to the Bitcoin Flywheel

mNAV = Market Cap ÷ Bitcoin Net Asset Value

For example, a company with a market cap of $2 Billion that has $1 Billion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet has a mNAV of 2.

This multiple reflects not just the Bitcoin balance, but the market’s belief in future BTC accumulation and strategic execution.

It’s the leverage engine of Bitcoin public equities.

In short, their higher the mNAV, the more the investor base believes in their ability to acquire Bitcoin effectively.

Just over a year ago, Metaplanet was a struggling Japanese hotel company.

Today, it's the top-performing public stock in the world.

This is how CEO Simon Gerovich rewrote the rules to Asia's corporate finance by using Bitcoin as the foundation.

A 🧵:

(If you find value in this, please retweet it for a fellow Bitcoiner) 🙏 1/ Japan: 35 Years of Stagnation

Japan’s economy has been frozen in time.

The Nikkei only recently surpassed its 1980s highs -an era-defining sign of stagnation, not growth.

Artificially cheap capital propped up zombie firms and distorted markets.

Innovation froze, capital misallocated, and equity returns collapsed under decades of inertia.

Metaplanet saw this and chose to break free.

They asked themselves this hard question:

"Where can you build lasting value when every system around you is designed to decay?"

Dylan LeClair just dropped an epic Metaplanet presentation that is rich in alpha.

Here is a summary with my added thoughts.

(Please share via retweet if you find this valuable for fellow Metaplant shareholders!)

A 🧵: 1/ Fiat Has Failed

Fiat is time theft. It has silently robbed people of their savings through inflation.

Since 1971, when Nixon ended the gold standard, the world has operated on a purely fiat system backed by nothing but trust.

This system has enabled governments to print endlessly, decoupling currency from real value.

Over time, this has eroded purchasing power, widened wealth gaps, and fueled asset bubbles.

Now, bond markets (the bedrock of fiat finance) are waking up to the consequences of decades of artificial monetary policy.

The failed experiment of fiat is unraveling in real time.

As a result, people are unknowingly searching for sound money again without realizing that Bitcoin is the solution....

Why are so many Bitcoiners... Christians?

At first, I thought it was a coincidence.

But the deeper I go into Bitcoin and into my faith, the more I believe it's not random at all.

A 🧵: 1/ Question Everything

Christianity and Bitcoin both ask you to suspend disbelief and investigate deeply.

At first glance, both seem ridiculous.

Christianity:

Why would God come as a humble man?

Why would He suffer and die for flawed human beings?

Bitcoin:

Magic internet money? Anonymous founder? Flash crashes?

Every red flag screams: “Stay away.”

But both reward the ones who look deeper.

Not with comfort. But with conviction.

AI is making white collar labor infinitely cheap and abundant.

As a result, margins will collapse.

Most businesses won’t die slowly - they’ll be wiped out overnight.

The future?

Brutally lopsided.

Besides a few AI mega-corporations, Bitcoin Treasury Companies will be the only other Financial Noah’s Ark in an ocean of debased fiat.

Here’s what’s coming (and what you can do about it).

A 🧵: 1/ The Death of Margins

AI isn’t lowering costs.

It’s nuking them.

On the latest My First Million (MFM) podcast, Sam Parr pointed out how Fiverr undercut $100,000 agency projects by offering the same work for $500.

Now even Fiverr is dying - replaced by $20 AI tools that deliver instantly, 24/7.

When AI makes talent infinite, profit margins aren’t squeezed..they’re vaporized.

Tether. Softbank. Cantor Fitzgerald. Bitfinex.

These financial heavyweights just joined forces to create MSTR’s next biggest rival - Twenty One.

Operating under the codename "Project Mystery", here’s a breakdown of the SEC deck.

A 🧵: 1/ The Objective

Led by CEO Jack Mallers, Twenty One is seeded with 42,000 Bitcoin from the beginning.

While most people know Jack Mallers as the founder of Strike, a Bitcoin payments infrastructure company, Twenty One will be a pure play capital markets company.

It's goal?

To create a publicly traded entity whose sole mission is to acquire and hold Bitcoin at scale.