Thread by @DataRepublican

🧵 THREAD: Unmasking Swatting Patterns 🧵

Three additional MAGA X influencers got swatted today: @Beard_Vet , @matt_vanswol , @GrageDustin .

I used Grok to compile the following list of swatting victims and then ran it through both Grok and OpenAI’s deep research tools to find common patterns.

I also used AI to analyze who wasn’t swatted, to identify differentiating factors. Finally, I attempt to identify the next high priority targets. Thread follows. 👇

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin The top AI identifying factor among swatted victims: association with @elonmusk , and/or prominence in alt-media such as InfoWars or War Room.

Documenting receipts (sorry, this will be slow):

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk . @JoeTalkShow is a big fan of Elon:

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow .@elonmusk has a history of interacting with @GuntherEagleman , @Shawn_Farash , @catturd2 , @matt_vanswol :

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 . @GrageDustin is in the list as well. @Beard_Vet 's association is less obvious, but he is a frequent reply guy, as is Gunther's brother @RealHickory :

Another common factor AI identified was that most of the victims either expressed support for Israel or anti-Hamas sentiment, distinguishing them from other alt-media influencers. Receipts from @RealHickory , @JoeTalkShow , @GuntherEagleman , @realchasegeiser . Important to note that both Mr. Eagleman and Mr. Geiser are against foreign aid for Israel, so this is not a blanket pro-Israel sentiment.

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser Receipts from @Shawn_Farash , @catturd2 , @Beard_Vet , @matt_vanswol

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser And finally @GrageDustin .

The reason I mention this is, again, this soft pro-Israel siding is a significant differentiating factor from other right-wing members.

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser Another common factor is that AI noted all of those accounts amplify each other frequently, and many have been guests on either InfoWars, or War Room, or both. They form a clique of sorts, with the possible exception of @JoeTalkShow who is more mainstream.

Frequent amplification by @BasedMikeLee on all those accounts was also noted.

High profile media accounts more closely associated with the mainstream, such as @charliekirk11 , @JackPosobiec , and their associates were not considered targets.

There are clear patterns emerging.

High risk factors for swatting:

🔹 Engagement with Elon Musk and amplification by Elon Musk
🔹 Amplification by @BasedMikeLee
🔹 Guests on InfoWars, War Room, or adjacent alt-media shows
🔹 Expressed pro-Israel, or at least anti-Hamas sentiments
🔹 Frequently amplified other swatting victims

And of course 🔹 prominent follower count.

🔹@realchasegeiser: 314K followers
🔹@joetalkshow: 254.8K followers
🔹@GuntherEagleman: 1.3M followers
🔹@Shawn_Farash: 311.5K followers
🔹@catturd2: 3.6M followers
🔹@RealHickory: 221.8K followers
🔹@Beard_Vet: 191.9K followers
🔹@matt_vanswol: 191.5K followers
🔹@GrageDustin: 75.4K followers

I was not able to confirm if @atensnut (1.7M followers) got swatted, but she did get nuisance pizza deliveries this week and she fulfills most or all of the above criteria.

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec Given these, who are at highest risk of swattings?

@ScottPresler is the number one top target. He's amplified by Elon, he's had his share of negative attention.

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler Other influencers AI suggested are @MarkDice , @Cernovich , @bennyjohnson .

And @RealAlexJones , @nataliegwinters , and anyone else associated with their shows should be considered high risk as well.

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler @MarkDice @Cernovich @bennyjohnson @RealAlexJones @nataliegwinters Thread end.

Stay safe!

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler @MarkDice @Cernovich @bennyjohnson @RealAlexJones @nataliegwinters Finally, forgot @nicksortor . He did not show up on the list because it was his father swatted, not him, so he occupies kind of a gray zone here. But he does fulfill all criteria.

Also, one more comment: people have speculated if the cyberattack has to do with the swatting.

My opinion is: no. Why? Because larger anonymous accounts were not affected. For the most part, all swatting victims had their real name identities known. You can purchase addresses easily offline or peruse voter rolls.

So add another risk factor:
🔹 Real life identity is known

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler @MarkDice @Cernovich @bennyjohnson @RealAlexJones @nataliegwinters @nicksortor And, forgot to add @WCdispatch_ to the swatted list, who also meets most of the above criteria:

Let's recap. Here are the risk factors to being a target of swatting:

🔹 Engagement with Elon Musk and amplification by Elon Musk
🔹 Real life identity is known
🔹 50K+ follower count, usually 150K+
🔹 Guests or employees of InfoWars, War Room, or adjacent alt-media shows
🔹 Expressed pro-Israel, or at least anti-Hamas sentiments
🔹 Frequently amplified other swatting victims in the past
🔹 Amplification by @BasedMikeLee

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler @MarkDice @Cernovich @bennyjohnson @RealAlexJones @nataliegwinters @nicksortor @WCdispatch_ Some have noted that all the targets are male, which might explain why @atensnut , @nataliegwinters , and I fulfill these criteria but are not swatted. Perhaps it has to do with the logistics of not being a "protector" of household.

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler @MarkDice @Cernovich @bennyjohnson @RealAlexJones @nataliegwinters @nicksortor @WCdispatch_ @atensnut It may also be a hint that @EagleEdMartin 's office reached out to me specifically this week. It could indicate that his agency quickly identified me as a high risk target.

One last thought for tonight: My current leading theory is that this is a terrorist campaign targeting X and influencers connected to Elon.

The criteria I mentioned may be secondary to the fact that X is the primary platform being used by all victims.

It also explains why Elon commented on the Salt Lake Tribune inciting harassment of my distillery and crowdsourced information on Tesla firebombings, but has not commented on this. He does not want to incite panic on the platform.

x.com/DataRepublican…

@Beard_Vet @matt_vanswol @GrageDustin @elonmusk @JoeTalkShow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @realchasegeiser @BasedMikeLee @charliekirk11 @JackPosobiec @ScottPresler @MarkDice @Cernovich @bennyjohnson @RealAlexJones @nataliegwinters @nicksortor @WCdispatch_ @atensnut @EagleEdMartin . @matt_vanswol suggested that foreign actors might be involved. I also find it possible that it isn’t a coincidence that this began alongside the cyberattacks on X from Ukraine and may even be the work of the same group.

At least two were more swatted on the early morning of March 17th. the Elon connection is not as strong, but both are primary X platform, alt-media journalists with known real-life identities.

@ImFiredUp2 - from South Carolina, lowest follower count yet at 40.5K. Is a podcaster and responds to Elon frequently.

@LarryTaunton - location unknown, Grok seems to think Alabama, another podcaster with a strong X presence and 154.5K follower count.

I'd like to aggregate timestamps and timezones from the victims, so if you can reply with the times you got swatted, we can see if there's any overlap there. The pattern seems to be 2-4 a night, suggesting the perpetuators are either limited in resources or intentionally stretching out the campaign.

So far I have @matt_vanswol who got swatted at 1:40 AM ET on 16 March.

@realchasegeiser @joetalkshow @GuntherEagleman @Shawn_Farash @catturd2 @RealHickory @Beard_Vet @GrageDustin @WCdispatch_ @LarryTaunton @nicksortor @ImFiredUp2

Added @realstewpeters to the list, attempted swat on 16 March. Although Elon replied to him last year, he is an extreme outlier in that he is not MAGA and is quite critical of Israel. Nonetheless he has a big alt-media platform on X. If you could provide time + time zone, that would be great!

I got timestamps from all three swatting victims from yesterday.

Interestingly, they are almost exactly two hours apart each.

Converted to EET (Eastern European Time), they are:

@GrageDustin - 5:35 AM EET, 16 March 2025
@matt_vanswol - 7:40 AM EET, 16 March 2025
@Beard_Vet - 9:43 AM EET, 16 March 2025