Thread by @d_foubert

Why France, Germany, and Poland should form a Tripartite Alliance — a new pillar for Europe's security, economy, and sovereignty. 🧵

1/ Poland has become the military backbone of NATO’s eastern flank:

- Largest tank fleet in Europe soon (K2, Abrams).

- Major artillery force (HIMARS, K9).

- Central to defense of the Baltics & Ukraine.

➡️ Poland anchors the alliance militarily.

2/ France is the only EU country with nuclear weapons and permanent UNSC seat.

- Can provide strategic deterrence.

- Lead diplomatic efforts on EU sovereignty, Sahel, Indo-Pacific.

➡️ France anchors strategic autonomy.

3/ The era of German hesitation is finished, Germany will regain its status as Europe's economic engine:

- Industrial base key to defence production.

- Financial capacity to fund EU security initiatives.

- Geographic centrality.

➡️ Germany anchors economic resilience.

4/ Why together?

Mutually complementary: military (Poland), nuclear/diplomatic (France), economic/industrial (Germany).

Geopolitical necessity: Russia's war, U.S. election uncertainties, and China’s assertiveness require EU's core to act independently when needed.

5/ Security implications:

- Joint defense production (tanks, air defense, drones).

- Integrated military planning for Eastern Europe.

- Coordinated nuclear umbrella.

6/ Economic rationale:

- Align French & German tech-industrial power with Polish defense expansion.

- Common energy projects (nuclear, LNG, hydrogen).

- Strengthen continental supply chains against external shocks (China, U.S. reshoring).

7/ Political impact:

- Rebuild trust between East and West EU.

- Create an independent center of gravity in EU foreign and defense policy.

- Respond to U.S. unpredictability post-2024 elections.

8/ Risks if we don't act:

- Europe remains fragmented and dependent on U.S.

- Russia regroups, threatening EU borders.

- Industrial and defence gaps widen.

A France-Germany-Poland alliance could become the strategic core of Europe, capable of acting, deterring, and defending. It's time to move beyond talk and build real capacity.